Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
June 17, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Let’s start with the biggest story from the weekend, 22 Jump Street. The latest joint from Phil Lord and Chris Miller won the weekend with an estimated $60 million. When actuals were released yesterday, the news was slightly (but only slightly) less positive. A $13.2 million Sunday placed the final touch on an opening weekend of $57.1 million, a dazzling total for a $50 million production.
The obvious comparison is to the first movie, 21 Jump Street. As we have noted previously at BOP, that title debuted to $36.3 million; furthermore, it required eight days to reach $57.1 million. Only two years later, 22 Jump Street has outperformed its predecessor across the board, which speaks to two key aspects of the franchise. The first is that the impeccable quality of 21 Jump Street left a positive impression on consumers to the point that the debut of the sequel has always been a foregone conclusion as a successful project.
The second is that the premise of the television series has been largely abandoned. We are now discussing a buddy cop franchise featuring two of the most popular actors in the industry today. My evaluation is that 21/22/inevitably 23 Jump Street is the Bad Boys of 2014, only funnier because we have swapped out Michael Bay for Phil Lord and Chris Miller. That’s like trading the last two kids picked in Gym class for Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson.
On Monday, 22 Jump Street was the number one film in North America. This is notable only due to the fact that How to Train Your Dragon 2 actually surpassed it on Sunday. So, the incompetent cop comedy regains its place at the top of the charts after a single day absence. The unexpected aspect of this turn of events is that 22 Jump Street won fairly handily. It grossed $6.8 million, coming within $500,000 of matching the combined total of the second and third place films in the process.
Last week, I described the box office rules for weekdays. As a reminder, the top three films in release last Monday fell 45%, 62% and 59%. I mention this only for context as I note that 22 Jump Street declined 48.3%. Obviously, that is a fairly solid Sunday-to-Monday hold. The problem is that we cannot rush to conclusions because the movie with the 45% drop mentioned above was The Fault in Our Stars and, well, you know.
I recognize that the more logical comparison would be 21 Jump Street. Unfortunately, that analog is invalid because it was a March release. Comparing March to June is an utterly pointless endeavor since kids are still in school. And before you say that it is not a kids’ movie, please remember that colleges are out just the same as elementary school. All students have ample opportunity to watch movies right now compared to their free time during the school year.
With a solid fourth day hold and $63.9 million already in the bank, 22 Jump Street will reach $100 million faster than Jonah Hill can say, “Ask me about my wiener.” Dude is a two-time Academy Award nominee yet that quote is still the first thing I think about when his name is mentioned. Anyway, we will continue to track the weekday appeal of 22 Jump Street all week. At this moment, it looks like it will be leggy but that could change with a Tuesday decline rather than increase.
Meanwhile, How to Train Your Dragon 2 struggled by comparison. After a solid yet still disappointing opening weekend, Hiccup’s latest adventure fell 63% on Monday. Yesterday’s total of $5.1 million barely surpasses the first weekday of How to Train Your Dragon, which was $4.8 million. And that too was a March release, meaning that the first film sold more tickets on a March weekend in 2010 than the latest one could manage yesterday. As a huge fan of the series, I wish I could say kinder things here but the facts are the facts.
Last weekend’s big two debuts, Edge of Tomorrow and The Fault in Our Stars, both experienced their second Mondays yesterday. The Fault in Our Stars finished in third place with $2.3 million. That total represents a wonderful 87% retention of its Sunday box office of $2.7 million. Alas, it also indicates a 55% Monday-to-Monday drop on the heels of a 69% fall over its second weekend. There is simply no sugarcoating what we are witnessing. The Fault in Our Stars is as front-loaded as any film in recent memory. With current box office of $83.1 million and another $15 million in the cards from now through Sunday, the tearjerker should hit $100 million early next week. The problem is that a film that starts with $48 million in three days should never need another two weeks to cross that barrier.
Edge of Tomorrow’s situation is more interesting to me. It finished in fifth place yesterday with $1.7 million. Its spot in the top five was already tenuous since it also finished in fifth last Friday. The glowingly reviewed film ostensibly held well for a science fiction film in its second weekend, falling only 43%. As loyal BOP readers know, that statistic is a bit misleading in that a film that opens lower should possess a lower percentage drop.
What is important is that after only eight days in theaters, Edge of Tomorrow is already failing to reach $2 million. It dropped 47% from Monday-to-Monday and simply does not appear to have the staying power needed to avoid being a catastrophe. This is a great movie that deserves a better fate. Instead, it is getting smoked by Maleficent, which was closer to upending The Fault in Our Stars than losing to the Tom Cruise movie. Maleficent earned just under $2.3 million and has a running total of $165.3 million after 18 days in theaters. Its current box office isn’t much behind what the combined domestic takes will be for Edge of Tomorrow and The Fault in Our Stars. And that is sad on several levels.