Monday Morning Quarterback, Part I
By BOP Staff
May 20, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Bruce Hall: Go, go Godzilla!
Sorry...I had to, because you can put me in the "thoroughly surprised" column. Even as more or less a fan of the franchise I wasn't willing to give this more than low sixties, maybe $70 million TOPS. Kaiju films have always been a niche product in the United States, and attempts to "Americanize" them have met with mostly disappointing results. This time, audiences have responded. Whether or not that's a good thing depends on the quality of the already announced sequel. Either way, you can go ahead and put Godzilla down as one of the year's biggest success stories.
Matthew Huntley: Surprised, you ask? Not at all, actually, because the teaser and extended trailer for Godzilla were some of the best I've seen in recent memory. Each revealed just enough to build up fan excitement and anticipation and paid off splendidly. Because I see so many trailers at the movies (like all of us do), I feel I've become de-sensitized to how much they can affect me, but Godzilla's did just the opposite and I'm guessing it wasn't just me.
And speaking of revealing "just enough," that's actually how Gareth Edwards handles a lot of the storytelling in Godzilla. I must say, I was blown away by it. Visually and viscerally, this is one of the best and craftiest movies I've seen in recent memory, and the story isn't completely mindless, either. I'm writing a review as we speak, but I walked away from this one in utter awe. My faith in the summer blockbuster has been restored. I know that sounds cheesy, but that's truly how I felt. Anyone else have a similar reaction?
Felix Quinonez: I am very surprised. Even though I thought the trailers looked great and it got some good reviews, I just assumed there would be a ceiling for a Godzilla movie that would prevent it from reaching $70 million. But even if it opened with about $60 million I would have called it a big success. So the fact that it beat its forecast by about $30 million means they hit it out of the park with this one and if it holds well, I believe it could wind up as one of the year's biggest box office stories.
Edwin Davies: I fall firmly into the very surprised camp on this one. I didn't think the film would flop, based primarily on how excited people were by the trailers and the strength of name recognition, but like Felix and Bruce I saw $70 million as being the best case scenario for the film, which is roughly what the much maligned Roland Emmerich version opened to in 1998 if you adjust for inflation. For this new version, which to some extent had to overcome the negative associations people have with that terrible, terrible film (not the mention the problem that a lot of people think of Godzilla as a cheesy, kitsch property), to perform so much better and to open better than Spider-Man is simply astonishing.
Reagen Sulewski: It's an interesting exercise to compare this reboot to some of the other ones that have come along recently - particularly Spider-Man's. A lot of the talk about that opening weekend a couple of years ago was about how audiences just weren't ready to forgive Spider-Man 3 and how the series was doomed to a poor opening regardless, it wasn't their fault, yada yada yada. I'd say this puts a lot of lie to that idea, as what franchise has a poorer reputation with American audiences than Godzilla? It all comes down to how the franchise was handled, and this was an A+ showing in how to override audience's natural preconceptions of what a film might be. They've basically removed all excuses from any future reboots - "If Godzilla could do it, why couldn't you?" In short - it's the movie, stupid.
Max Braden: I was thinking about $80 million so I wouldn't say I'm very surprised at $92 million. I would have been shocked on the other end with a number like $60 million, because in the last six months it's seemed like this was the movie everyone wanted to see. Every time a teaser image or clip was released, the Internet went crazy over it. I think it was really helped by taking a Nolan-esque Batman approach to rebooting the Godzilla genre, rather than a simple action approach of flipping cars and multiple explosions. In a lot of ways the trailer for Godzilla shared a similar tone with World War Z, which also had a strong opening last year. The movie comparison I had in mind for box office was Cloverfield, but I was misleading myself: despite setting the January opening record with $40 million, Cloverfield nosedived and only earned $80 million total over its run. What did surprise me about this weekend was seeing my friends report some so-so reviews of Godzilla. I had expected really strong buzz from those who had seen the movie, based on the quality of the trailer. I think reviews are overall positive, but with sci-fi audiences about to flock to X-Men: Days of Future past, I'm now thinking Godzilla won't have the legs I would have predicted just a week ago.
Jay Barney: I am pretty surprised and impressed by this result. It was much higher than many of the predictions, and the reviews are fairly good. Going into the year, I doubt anyone expected that Godzilla would be the second largest opening of the year to date, but that is what it has accomplished. The numbers against the budget are spectacular. The $160 million budget is very reasonable, almost cheap considering the amount spent on other big budget movies. It'll be approaching or past the budget by the end of weekend two, and the international numbers are the real factor here. This could be one of the big stories of the summer.