Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
May 15, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com

That's a clown(ey) shirt, bro.

Kim Hollis: As we enter the heart of the summer box office season, let's take a moment to reflect on what has transpired thus far in 2014. What do you consider to be the biggest blockbuster, the most pleasant surprise, and the bomb of 2014 to date. Are there any other thoughts you want to share?

Edwin Davies: Biggest blockbuster is a tie between Captain America and The LEGO Movie. Cap will overtake Emmitt and Wyldstyle domestically at some point in the next week or two, and he's already well ahead of them worldwide, but he also had some considerable advantages and much higher expectations. The LEGO Movie, on the other hand, has performed so far above expectations that it deserves to be considered one of the most stunning success of the year.

The LEGO Movie would also be my choice for biggest surprise, but I'll also throw the worldwide success of The Grand Budapest Hotel out there as something I was not expecting at all. Domestically, the film has found the biggest audience Anderson has seen since The Royal Tenenbaums back in 2001, but globally the film has been kind of huge. None of his previous films have ever earned more than $25.5 million outside of the US before, but Grand Budapest Hotel has earned nearly four times that much to date. That's a huge uptick that I certainly hadn't expected based on the more modest success of the rest of his films.

Even though Dorothy's Return will no doubt end up losing more money, I don't think any film rivals Transcendence for biggest bomb of the year so far. Not only has it lost a staggering amount of money, but it did so despite starring Johnny Depp and having a sizable marketing campaign behind it. Dorothy, Hercules et al. never had much of a chance of being big successes, but Transcendence had so many things in its favor, none of which did anything to stop it crashing and burning.

Reagen Sulewski: When you consider what the worst case scenario for The LEGO Movie would be, it's hard to argue against it as the biggest hit of the year. I still boggle that a stop-motion animation movie about a toy is one of the biggest worldwide hits of the year, and with the significant handicap of selling a lot of discounted tickets at that.

If I'm not being boring and putting it in as the biggest surprise as well, I'd make a case for Ride Along, which revived the buddy comedy and launched Kevin Hart into the stratosphere. $130 million for that film has to be one of the biggest unexpected events of the year.

Transcendence is a good pick for bomb of the year so far, but I'd also put in a vote for Pompeii, which had just as big of a budget but did just as poorly. There was no big name to put this on, but it might signal the near end of disaster porn, or at least that studios are going to have to try a little harder to make these work.

Max Braden: Cap will outgross The LEGO Movie, but I think LEGO wins for dominating the box office longer and earning so much money on only a third the budget of The Winter Soldier. On the other hand, I do think Captain America did something more important than just earn a lot of money: it hit another home run for its franchise. I know there are Thor fans, but so far his movies have seemed to be pretty stand alone and I don't see much impact lost if they hadn't been made (this despite Thor's whole thing being responsible for what brought the Avengers together). Not only did The Winter Soldier deliver a well-received production, it helped advance the broader story of the Avengers with the S.H.I.E.L.D storyline. And not only was that done in the movie, it was done simultaneously on TV with Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. I don't think we've seen that level of success with TV and movie integration before. Marvel's cinematic universe brand is firing on all cylinders right now, and that's huge for its future.



The biggest surprise has to be Heaven is for Real. With only a $12 million budget, it has already grossed $75 million and is still going, adding theaters in wide release each week since opening in mid-April.

I'd also pick Transcendence as the biggest bomb of the year so far. It had huge financial losses along with terrible reviews. I didn't think the movie looked appealing at all from the trailer, so its failure didn't surprise me much and I don't think it will hurt Johnny Depp at all. But I do feel bad for Wally Pfister, who earned Oscar nominations for four movies in a row and won Best Cinematography for Inception, then tries his hand at being a director on Transcendence and it bombs. That's a rough first outing.

I think it's also worth noting that Frozen just recently edged over the $400 million mark. Obviously it's a 2013 release, but it did make $100 million of its gross this year, and surpassed Finding Nemo to become the fourth highest grossing animated movie ever.

Kim Hollis: The LEGO Movie and Captain America: The Winter Soldier are both equally impressive to me with their outcomes. LEGO clearly struck a chord and thanks to Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, it’s an instantly rewatchable classic, too. Captain America, like Iron Man 3 and Thor 2, behaved like a mini-Avengers sequel. The fact that worldwide audiences have embraced the character is fascinating.

I think that the biggest surprise of the year is the fact that faith-based films have become big business. I mean, it really shouldn’t be if you examine the atmosphere in the United States at this point, but these movies did kind of come out of nowhere for me. Son of God was just repurposed television footage after all, and then God’s Not Dead and Heaven Is for Real came along afterward and just kept the trend going. This audience wants content specific to them, and I do admire that several studios have figured out how to package them in a way that really generates interest.

There have been a shocking number of poor performers in a year where we generally have seen good results overall. I’d agree that Transcendence is the worst of the bunch, purely for so much lost potential.

David Mumpower: The debate regarding the biggest blockbuster of the year is being reduced to one of budget and expectations. I think that is the perfect way to evaluate the situation. Since The Lego Movie is the people's choice in this thread, I will play devil's advocate on the subject. Captain America: The Winter Soldier has grossed roughly a quarter billion dollars more than its counterpart. The budget discrepancy is only $110 million between the titles. I absolutely agree that The Lego Movie lacked the immediate selling power of its more storied counterpart. It is also the more frugal investment. If we are debating which one provides the better return on investment, well, Son of God and God's Not Dead are going to be the real answers anyway. Simply stated, Captain America: The Winter Soldier has earned more profit than The Lego Movie. If that is the litmus test for people considering the merits of each candidate, I understand why they would select it. Personally, I think that The Lego Movie is one of the most deftly timed releases in recent memory. I am in awe of everything about it. So, it is my choice as well.

Kim already not only answered for me on biggest surprise but also provided a lucid explanation regarding why as well. So, I guess I am reduced to saying "mega-dittos" or whatever the non-talk radio listener's equivalent is. With regards to biggest bomb, I have to say that Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return has not only rivaled but also surpassed Transcendence in my estimation. I appreciate Edwin's point of view on the subject; however, the Johnny Depp movie has grossed $65 million worldwide against a $100 million production budget. In reality, Warner Bros. will be lucky to recoup much of their investment because they auctioned the international revenue to Summit Entertainment. Still, the project as a whole is not an absolute loss of investment, just mostly one. Dorothy's Return has earned $4.4 million and is positioned to drop out of the top ten this weekend. It somehow cost more than The Lego Movie to create yet it will not reach double digits in box office revenue. Abject failure, thy name is...