Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
April 9, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
1. Batman
2. Superman
3. Wolverine
4. The X-Men (not including Wolverine)
5. Thor
6. Spider-Man
7. Iron Man
8. The Hulk
9. Captain America
Edwin Davies:
1. Batman - This is a no-brainer for me, since not only has the character featured in three very successful, acclaimed films in the last decade, but he's also had considerable staying power going back to the huge success of the Tim Burton-Michael Keaton films. He even managed to bounce back from two truly horrible installments, something which his DC stablemate Superman has had trouble doing twice now. I could see him being unseated if the Batman-Superman team up doesn't show any growth from Man of Steel, but for the moment he's sitting pretty at the top.
2. Iron Man - Alone or as part of The Avengers, Tony Stark (or at least Robert Downey Jr.) is a huge draw. He was big before The Avengers, and he's even bigger now. The prime reason why I don't put him at number one is that he doesn't have the longevity of Batman, and because the appeal of the character is so tied in to the actor playing him (whereas Batman's had a few face-lifts and done pretty well with most of them). I struggle to imagine a rebooted version of the character being anywhere near as successful as the original live-action iteration, which is a testament to Downey's personal magnetism.
3. Spider-Man - Similar to Batman, what sets Spider-Man apart is that even when you swap a new guy in, the character still appeals to a pretty big audience. Not as big as the old one, admittedly, and the new version is (for me) not as good, but the resilience of the character (and the way that Sony seem convinced that he can spawn a whole Avengers-style universe of spin-offs for them) suggests he's an Iron Man level figure, even if he's faded considerably in the last few years.
4. Captain America - Prior to this weekend, I'd have put Cap a lot further down this list, but The Winter Soldier's opening and tremendous overseas success so far suggests that he has joined the big leagues in a major way.
5. Superman - This might seem a bit low, but bear in mind that, had I been asked this question a year ago, Supes would be even further down. Despite being arguably the most iconic of all superheroes, Clark Kent's had a rough cinematic legacy. The first two were huge by '70s standards, and when adjusted for inflation they stand head and shoulders above the subsequent films, but the third and fourth installments (ESPECIALLY the fourth) basically destroyed all interest in the character as a cinematic property for decades. Even though he came back (twice!) the results were pretty indifferently received, and the fact that his next film needs to be propped up by adding in the number one seed suggests that his drawing power alone has its limits.
6. Thor - Thor's second film didn't show huge growth compared to his first at home, but overseas it did brilliantly, which suggests a lot for his global appeal. I could see the third Thor being a potential gargantuan hit, especially coming off the second Avengers, but for now he hasn't shown quite the strength that Cap has.
7. Wolverine - How times change. Back when the original X-Men trilogy ended in 2006, I'd have put Wolverine way higher in this list, but his years as a solo figure haven't been kind. His first film did well but was pretty poisonously received, especially when compared to the strong critical notices that greeted the X-Men films (reviews that contributed to its success and helped pave the way for our current cape-obsessed climate) and his second film, while an improvement, quality wise, struggled with the bad will generated by the first. Still, he was the main draw in the X-Men films, and his return to the fold with Days of Future Past says a lot about how important he is to that series.
8. The Hulk - The Hulk is an interesting prospect since although the character has been indifferently received on two separate occasions now, I would say that if you opened a Hulk film now, and if you managed to do a half-decent job with it, it'd probably do better than either Thor film domestically. This obviously all lies in the success of The Avengers, which Hulk (as played by Mark Ruffalo) was the breakout star of, and which finally found a way to make the human and monster elements as interesting as each other, without letting one dominate too much. However, without any empirical data to support this assertion, even though I firmly believe that a post-Avengers landscape is the perfect one in which to release a Hulk film and have it actually work, he has to sit so low based on past performance, rather than theoretical potential.
9. The X-Men (not including Wolverine) - This placing is based solely on X-Men: First Class, which technically did involve Wolverine but that was only for a single line of dialogue, so he might as well not be included. That film did worse than all the other previous films in the series, which suggests that a) X-Men 3: The Last Stand and X-Men Origins: Wolverine ate up a lot of goodwill for X-Men and X-Men related products, and b) that a lot of the appeal of the original films lay in the charisma of the performers, rather than the characters themselves. The reintroduction of Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellan (alongside Hugh Jackman) for the newest one says a lot about how much their involvement contributed to the initial, groundbreaking success of the series.
In terms of superhero fatigue, this is what I think: It's a term that has been thrown around a lot over the last few years, usually every time that a film underperforms or flops, and each time it has been disproven within months of being uttered. That doesn't mean that it won't ever happen, but I think that we are some years off from a time when people are tired of superhero films on principle. The genre is in a similar position to CGI animated films; the novelty of the style and form has worn off, so success is not guaranteed just because a film involves a superhero. Success is much more dependent on quality, appeal and brand, as evidenced by the loyalty Marvel now enjoys, and the general quality of superhero films has been kept fairly high, something which has been helped by the failure of the truly terrible ones like Green Lantern. If Marvel gets arrogant and starts churning out substandard product at the rate it's been going, then audiences might sour. But if studios keep trying to make good films, then I see no reason why the superhero genre could not continue as a thriving genre for years or even decades, even if specific characters' popularity wanes over that time.
Bruce Hall:
1. Iron Man – Worldwide box office of $2 billion since 2008. All the modern Superman films together haven’t done this much business since 1978.
2. Captain America …just set a new April record and earned almost $200 million worldwide already. This doesn’t mean I think Captain America is the second greatest superhero, it means this is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately business, and Cap has done a lot for everyone lately.
3. Superman – He’s still Superman, after all. And thanks to Zack Snyder, everyone’s talking about him again – even if it isn’t all nice.
4. Spider-Man – The domestic totals keep dropping but since 2002, he’s been a consistently strong performer at the box office.
5. The X-Men (not including Wolverine) are not for everyone, and the numbers bear this out. But they’re steady performers, so much so that the most hated installment is also the most profitable to date. That’s nothing to wave your claws at.
6. Batman – I only put him here because he’s a wild card right now. Everyone still loves him and overall, he’s the most bankable character on this list. But now that we’ve all seen The Dark Knight Rises more than once, and the next iteration is in (arguably) uncertain hands, the Caped Crusader sits at number six.
7. Thor – Wouldn’t even be on this list were it not for The Avengers.
8. Wolverine – Works best in an ensemble. With the exception of the first three acts of The Wolverine, comic book movies just aren’t mature enough yet to do him justice.
9. The Hulk - Really?
Felix Quinonez:
1. Batman - I think Batman is still the top dog. In my opinion the route DC is taking with the so-called Man of Steel sequel says it all. People love Batman so much that he's even taking over Superman's movie. He barely took his helmet off and they're already getting him off the bench. He's the star player and is such a box office draw that he's being used to prop up interest in the sequel to tepidly received Man of Steel.
2. Iron Man - The numbers don't lie. But when you look at his first two movies, it seemed that he reached a ceiling that was still a level or two below Batman's. Yes, he was the main draw in The Avengers but the fact that all of these heroes were going to be in a movie together was also another big draw. And yes Iron Man 3 was huge but we shouldn't ignore the very real "Avengers bump."
3. Spider Man - His lowest performing movie domestically is still in the top 15 for superhero movies...ever. And I think that people overlook the fact that The Amazing Spider Man was about rebuilding the brand and not breaking records, the same way that Batman Begins was. Peter Parker will always be one of the most accessible characters because unlike other comic book heroes, the viewers/readers see themselves in him. Because of his nerdy/outsider status, young people will always gravitate to him and this keeps Spider man perpetually relevant.
4. Captain America - I really do believe that The Winter Soldier is his big break out party. The movie got great reviews, and great audience reception. The buzz isn't quite as big as Iron Man's in 2008, but it's close. You’d better believe that Marvel will get some mileage out of the "Biggest April Opening" record. I think if I had the benefit of knowing how well it would hold up, I might even place him a notch up on the list.
5. Superman - Superman will always be Superman and that is both a good and bad thing. A superman movie will always get some buzz but the fact is a lot of people see him as corny and outdated. He doesn't have the cool factor of Batman or the nerdy outsider thing that Spider man has. Yes, Clark is a nerd but he also works at a world renowned newspaper. Nerdy comic book readers don't see themselves in him the way they can with Spider Man. And I really do believe that despite the fact that it made a lot of money, Man of Steel was a disappointment. It opened really high because of the buzz it had going in but it quickly faded at the box office because people were not blown away by it. And again, I believe that the way the sequel is being handled says a lot about the amount of confidence DC/WB has in Superman as a box office draw. Man of Steel was supposed to be the foundation for a Justice League movie the way Iron Man was for The Avengers. But that wasn't the case and now he needs the help of not only Batman but also Wonder Woman to carry his own sequel.
6. Wolverine - I think in this case the numbers don't really tell the whole story because I believe that Hugh Jackman has created one of the most iconic performances in this genre. I don't care how tall he is...he IS Wolverine. (To me, and a whole lot of other people) But the box office performance of his solo movies makes it seem like he's less of a draw than he actually is. The first Wolverine movie followed The Last Stand, which was universally despised, and people were still really excited about it. It still opened to a huge $85 million. And if it didn't suck, it could have been huge. And I know that The Wolverine was the lowest grossing X-Men movie, but again I don't think that's because Wolverine isn't a huge draw. In that case I believe that Fox made the mistake of going too niche. They based the movie on a beloved comic book storyline but the fact is that general audiences had almost no knowledge of it. I think that they inadvertently limited its audience appeal. But I think that Wolverine is still a huge draw and the fact that he's headlining yet another X-Men movie says a lot about how much of a draw he is.
7. The X-Men (not including Wolverine) - This one is a bit tricky because the first three X-Men movies were really just Wolverine movies. So I think we really only have one movie to base this on. And the performance of First Class was hindered by the fact that it followed two terrible movies (The Last Stand and The First Wolverine Movie.) And the next X-Men movie also features Wolverine. So I guess I would call them a second tier level draw.
8. Thor - I think that Chris Hemsworth's performance had a lot to do with making Thor a box office draw. The first movie had to introduce a character that most people had never even heard of and has silly premise and it still grossed almost $500 million worldwide. And the second movie turned him into a genuine worldwide star. Unfortunately, the movie didn't resonate as much domestically and still hasn't broken into the A list the way I believe Captain America has with The Winter Soldier.
9. The Hulk - He already had two chances and neither one connected with audiences. He did have a few great moments in The Avengers but I still don't see him as a big draw.
I don't worry about superhero fatigue at all. I think these characters are bigger than the creators, writers, artists and definitely bigger than the actors and directors. Maybe with over exposure they might have to go away for a while at one point but they will always have appeal.
David Mumpower:
1. Batman - First place cannot be argued, which is why I am stunned that Bruce has the character listed in sixth place. That’s like saying that Biff Pocoroba was a better 1970s Atlanta Brave than Hank Aaron. It’s just craaaaaaazy. Batman has broken the opening weekend record box office record four times. What qualifies as a “disappointing” Batman performance is a movie that earns “only” $448 million domestically. Here is all I need to say about the popularity of The Dark Knight. The two most lucrative performers in this franchise have grossed $2.1 billion worldwide. The only franchises with a better two-movie total are Harry Potter and The Lord of the Rings…and only then if we include The Hobbit, which is a different trilogy. Batman is now and always has been the alpha and the omega of comic book superheroes.
2. Iron Man - The caveat to the statistic that I just mentioned is that if we credit Tony Stark for The Avengers as well as Iron Man, which I think is cheating, that character claims $2.73 billion, more than ANY other franchise. Given the obvious expansion in popularity of Iron Man in the wake of The Avengers, the only question here is how much of the gap to Batman has been closed. I say a lot, especially since they are about to stick Batman in a no-win situation with the dead weight of Superman, a comic book character who has failed repeatedly as a would-be box office draw.
3. Captain America - I may be getting ahead of myself with this ranking. To my mind, Captain America possessed only one negative heading into The Winter Soldier, and that was the difficulty in selling a patriotic American overseas. Now that this issue has been proven nonexistent, I can focus solely upon the positives. While Tony Stark is the most engaging character in The Avengers, Captain America is the leader. And being the leader of a billion dollar franchise elevates Steve Rogers into the box office stratosphere. A soldier with a cause is much more straightforward with regards to storytelling potential than most of the others on this list. I see Captain America as the most viable of the remaining prospects. Thus, I rank him higher than his more storied counterparts below.
4. Spider-Man - If we were simply examining the historical performance of a character, an argument could be made for Spider-Man to finish second on the list. The modern superhero era in movies was triggered by the debut of Spider-Man in 2002. Unfortunately, Sony was so desperate to keep their brand alive that they decided to reboot the character in 2012. The world collectively yawned at a release that somehow earned less than any of its three predecessors in spite of the explosive global expansion of box office during that timeframe. While many folks believe that The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will right the ship, I watch Jamie Foxx in those ads and am forcibly reminded of Arnold Schwarzenegger in Batman & Robin. It feels like a mistake. Since the last movie earned $750 million, I may be jumping the gun to cede third place to Captain America, but I feel like Spidey is on the way down while Cappy is on the way up.
5. The X-Men - The Wolverine aspect of the discussion is detailed below. What I would note about X-Men as a group is that they are poised to break out later this year with Days of Future Past. I am projecting that to be the most popular title to date in the franchise, and that thought process factors into my ranking. If that expectation proves foolish, these characters should drop at least one spot if not two. The X-Men are the trickiest to grade because the cast was reboot in 2011. The exceptional quality of that movie plays a part in my faith in Days of Future Past. Historically, these characters were a solid draw but using the same logic as above, they are not as currently beloved as others on the list. I view the X-Men as the wild card, so slotting them in the middle feels like a safe choice, albeit a somewhat cowardly one.
6. Wolverine - Differentiating the X-Men from Wolverine is a trying proposition. Logan’s inimitable snikt remains the heart of both franchises. Also, Wolverine has proven to be a strong performer in solo projects as well as during team exploits.
7. Thor - I am a bit surprised that Thor: The Dark World did not improve dramatically with regards to global revenue. There was a modest bump of $185 million, certainly nothing to sneeze at, but it is not a tally reflective of an ascending box office titan, either. The problem is that out of all the recent superhero movies from Marvel, The Dark World is the most disposable. I only watched it a couple of months ago yet I struggle to remember any details from it beyond Loki being in a jail cell for a time. Thor as a lead character is fun because he is this crazy, muscular drunk with a natural charisma to him. For whatever reason, none of that was on display in The Dark World. If The Avengers 2 fleshes out the character better, I consider the Norseman upwardly mobile on this list.
8. Superman - I referenced the matter above. I will spell it out now. There have been two recent comeback attempts for Superman as a movie franchise. In combination, the two titles grossed a billion dollars against negative costs in excess of half a billion dollars. There is some debate about whether either Superman Returns of Man of Steel was even profitable. After twin attempts to buy the popularity of the franchise, Warner Bros. has punted. Now, they are sticking Batman into a Superman movie, which should guarantee the popularity of the production. It will not cement Superman as anything other than yellow sun-powered sidekick for Gotham’s finest. Superman is now and always has been a lazy riff on the Achilles myth. The recent attempt to take the character to a dark place simply reinforces that nobody in Hollywood has any idea how to make Superman appealing to mainstream consumers.
9. The Hulk - DC Comics and Marvel Comics have kindred spirits in Superman and The Hulk. Both are well known comic book characters whose presence in movies has proven a challenge to market. Compared to The Hulk, even Superman is a movie draw, at least historically. The Hulk was brilliantly employed in The Avengers, and that may be enough to catapult this character to new-found heights of box office success. Until that happens, he has not done enough to justify higher placement on this list of franchise heavyweights.