Hello, good people...it is that time again! Time for another edition of my Survivor: Cagayan Power Rankings. I was half right last week, by saying that Lindsay was toast. I was also half wrong by saying that if Aparri went to Tribal, which they did, Morgan would be the easy boot. Instead, Morgan proved to be more trustworthy that her Beauty tribe mate, Alexis. In fact, I was so wrong that there was never even a hint that people would vote for Morgan. D'OH! But, that's the beauty of the Power Rankings, every week I get a chance to redeem myself.
Survivor: Cagayan - Power Rankings
By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst
April 1, 2014
1) Spencer - We have a new #1 this week and it's Spencer. I think he had a very solid episode last week and ultimately, I do think his alliance made the right vote here. I think the Aparri tribe is much more solid with Jeremiah than Alexis going into the merge. And right now, I think Spencer is king of the Aparri alliance. Eventually, they may come for him, but I don't think it'll be right away.
2) Tasha - I'm putting a lot of stock in the cohesiveness of the former Brains right here, but I really think they've kind of earned it. They really bonded and I really think Sarah is the only wild card in the Aparri alliance. If they can keep her reeled in, they should have a decent shot to run the table. This is Survivor, so we know that probably won't happen, but if it does, Tasha is right there as a viable million dollar option to Spencer.
3) LJ - I'm still pretty high on LJ right now. He could very much be the first target of the Aparri alliance, but he's a pretty savvy guy and he has an idol. I think potential idol concern might keep a vote from heading his way. Also, I could see him working something out with Jeremiah and Morgan to keep him and Jefra in the game. Also, there are some really unlikable people on his tribe and that can sometimes go a long way to deciding to keep someone.
4) Jefra - If I'm sticking with LJ, I guess I have to stick with his girl. Again, Jefra has done nothing to distinguish herself as a player on this season, which means she'll be way down on the list of people to get rid of as this game turns individual. The closer we get to the end, the more she seems like the perfect coattail rider to be your #3 at the end of the game. This ranking is based more off a game, than he actual game itself.
5) Morgan - My pick to go home from the Aparri tribe moves up my rankings considerably this week. She is locked in with the alliance on Aparri now and I think she'll be a very valuable part of that alliance. So far, she seems to have a very good read on the people in this game and the Brains seem willing to listen. I foresee Jeremiah being the huge Aparri target this week anyway, which will give Morgan even more time to work. Especially if she can get people to look her in the eyes.
6) Tony - I'm still not sure Tony's long for the game, but he has improved over the season so far. Plus, he still has an idol, so that means something. The key for Tony's game is Sarah. If he can pull her back into Cops R Us, he could be a player. If he can't, he could be in trouble. He made the move to get rid of Cliff happen and he had a strong play on Jeremiah last week that almost worked. He may have other tricks up his sleeve. At the same time, the Aparri folks might realize now that his idol trick was just that and he could be an early target because of it.
7) Kass - I'm not totally sure what to do with Kass, but #7 looks good. She is not likable at all and I keep waiting for that personality to get her in hot water. But her alliance is looking good right now, so I can't put her at the bottom. Also, with the merge coming, she hasn't shown herself to be any kind of challenge threat. I just have a feeling that she's won't be a deep threat in the game.
8) Jeremiah - I think Jeremiah still has the chance to be a dark horse. The concern here is that he will likely be the Solana Five's first target as people have been targeting him since day one. But he does seem to have the support of his Aparri tribe and he should be an immunity threat from here on out. I put him near the bottom because he's an obvious target, but he's one I could see making a move before it's all said and done.
9) Sarah - On paper, she seems to be in a good spot. Eleven people, two five-person alliances with Sarah right in the middle. However, if she goes back to Cops R Us, she sticks herself in sixth place. If she stays with Aparri, she might fare better. She could hook up with the Brains and guarantee herself no worse than fourth place. She seemed like a strong player at first, but her blind loyalty to Tony made me have second thoughts. Of everyone, she's the biggest question mark for me because I haven't gotten a good read on where her head is right now, other than "as long as it's not me." Wait a minute...I feel like that strategy has worked before. Like twice or something.
10) Woo - I'm kinda going all in on the Aparri alliance winning out this week. If they don't, I've totally screwed up this Ranking...not the first time, I know. The individual game is where Woo becomes a major threat. He's fast, he's strong both in the water and out. He's agile and as a martial artist has great balance. He is a threat to win every single challenge from here on out. That might put him at the top of the list of players to get booted as soon as possible. If he loses an immunity challenge, it could be his last loss which means it's the only time to dump him. So, if Aparri does win the battle for Sarah's love and affection, my boy, Woo, could be the first casualty of that war.
11) Trish - That being said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if everyone decides that it's Trish's time to go. She can't be fun to have around camp for anyone not named "LJ's sexy abs." And she's shown a very ugly side to herself that might have the rest of Solana not worried to see her go. If Sarah sticks with Aparri, Trish might be a nice, agreed-upon first post-merge boot and then everyone else can get down to playing the game without the obnoxious factor that Trish brings to the table. Then again, this could just be complete wishful thinking on my part as Trish is one of my least liked Survivors ever and she cannot go home soon enough for me.
And there we have it kids, Week Six Power Rankings. Next to the tribe swap episode, the merge is the toughest to predict for me. You don't know who will stick with who. You don't know who will win immunity. There are a lot of unknowns coming into this week's episode...especially when you consider the advertising telling you that the result is a "COMPLETE! SHOCKER!" I'll be back next week with a lengthy excuse for why my rankings are so bad. In the meantime, like 'em, hate 'em, think I'm full of crap? Follow me and hit me up on the Twitter: @vannestjc. Until next time, take care!