Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
March 18, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Trick Shot Titus is the anchor of their 2030 recruiting class.

Kim Hollis: Need for Speed, the video game adaptation starring Breaking Bad's Aaron Paul, debuted with $17.8 million this weekend. What do you think of this result?

Edwin Davies: This is a profoundly mediocre result. It's about in line with what the likes of Doom, Max Payne and Resident Evil managed, which is not the most illustrious company to find yourself surrounded by. I don't think its status as a videogame adaptation held it back much considering that the connection was played down by pretty much everyone involved, and it was sold primarily as a film in the Fast and Furious vein (or, to be less charitable, a knock-off). The ads that I saw were pretty bland, suggesting that there was nothing in the film to be all that excited about. Even Paul, who was such a charismatic and interesting figure on Breaking Bad, seemed to be sleepwalking through it, and that sense that no one was really trying clearly translated to the potential audience, who clearly thought that this was no substitute for Fast & Furious 7.

Matthew Huntley: Mediocre is right, although I must say, this figure doesn't surprise me, namely for the reason Edwin pointed out: the trailer and ads were uncharacteristically bland for an action movie. There was nothing about them that got me excited or giddy about seeing it (in contrast, the Fast and the Furious movies still have the power to do that, even though there's been six of them), nor did they offer any insight into the plot, which I still don't know anything about. On the surface, Aaron Paul also doesn't seem right for the lead role (at this point, it's too hard to disassociate him from Jesse Pinkman on Breaking Bad). I'm pre-judging the movie since I still haven't seen it, but it just looked stupid and inconsequential. Clearly, I'm not the only one who thinks so.

Felix Quinonez Jr.: Although it's obviously disappointing, I don't think anyone should be surprised with this number. Need for Speed could have been subtitled "the red headed stepchild of Fast and Furious." And I think people smelled the stench of a blatant rip off. Aside from that, video game adaptations are notorious for flopping and this one did nothing to set itself apart from any pack. And as much as I want to see Jesse Pinkman succeed - he's been through so much - let's be honest, he's no box office draw.

Kim Hollis: I was surprised anyone was predicting mid-20s for this film. We had absolutely no reason to think that Breaking Bad fans would automatically follow Aaron Paul to a crappy-looking Fast and the Furious knockoff. I mean, I love Jesse Pinkman, but I had zero desire to see this movie. I admire that Paul did what he could to promote the film, and it sounds like he acts in circles around the rest of the cast; however, I think he would have been better off testing the waters in a few more indie films before jumping to something mainstream like this. With that said, I'm excited to see him in the Nick Hornby adaptation A Long Way Down later this year (reuniting him with Need for Speed co-star Imogen Poots, by the way).

Jason Barney: I don't mean to go the opposite way of my BOP colleagues, but if you take everything into account, this film may actually make money in the end. Believe me, the 27% RT rating or the #3 opening is not going to help in the long run, but I was shocked to see the international numbers so high at this early date. The lack of box office and the negative reviews seem to indicate everything is going to go downhill for this project pretty quickly, and it probably will, but I am going to take a wait and see attitude.

This is a film I probably will not see, but I wonder if the younger movie going demographic may still embrace it. A number of young people I know actually thought this was part of the Fast and Furious franchise. So I think there is a chance, even a slight one, that this one doesn't lose too much money.

The international dollars are what cause me to pause and reserve judgment about its prospects. $45 million from overseas markets at this early date is nothing to sneeze at. It has a lot of work to do, but stranger things have happened.

David Mumpower: Speaking as the crazy person who predicted mid-20s (even a touch higher, in truth), I am obviously disappointed in this result. Disney again supported a project in terms of sheer volume of commercials without finding the appropriate trigger to entice consumers into going. Need for Speed is a wildly popular videogame brand that failed to translate as a movie franchise. Edwin appropriately pointed out the list of similarly mediocre debuts save for Resident Evil, the oldest title of the group. Need for Speed may well prove lucrative enough overseas to earn back its investment and possibly even become a marginal winner as Jason indicates. It still is unlikely to merit a sequel, though. And that was definitely the intent with this title. It was supposed to be the first movie in a franchise rather than a moderate one-off film.

Max Braden: Whether or not Aaron Paul is associated with Breaking Bad, I don't think the Need for Speed target audience is even aware of who he is, so it's not like he was ever going to be the primary draw. No Vin Diesel = no F&F money is also not surprising. Both of those being said, then, I think this is a good result as far as what you could expect for a generic car chase movie based on a car chase video game. Not that Getaway's gross was any difficult hurdle to get past, but that terrible movie could not have helped the next car chase movie, so for Need For Speed to open at over four times Selena "The Ruiner" Gomez's movie is a nice win.

Kim Hollis: Tyler Perry's The Single Mom's club opened to $8.1 million, his lowest opening ever. What do you think of this result? Why do you think his last couple of movies have been trending downward?

Edwin Davies: I disagree that the last couple of films Tyler Perry has directed have trended downwards; A Madea Christmas made $52.5 million, which was lower than Madea's Witness Protection ($65.6 million) but in line with other Madea movies like Big Happy Family and I Can Do Bad All By Myself ($53.3 million and $51.7 million, respectively), and Confessions of a Marriage Counselor was one of his most successful non-Madea films. Up to this weekend, I'd say that Perry's films haven't been on a downward trend, but that he had reached a point where he had peaked and leveled off; his audience showed up pretty consistently, and his films all did pretty similar business, with a couple of films being bigger (Madea Goes to Jail) or smaller (Good Deeds) than others.

This result strikes me as something different than what we've seen up to this point. Not only did it open to only half of what his films have traditionally opened to (with the exception of Daddy's Little Girls, his least successful film prior to this) but it also seemed to have less support in terms of marketing and distribution - it's the first film he's directed that has opened in less than 2,000 theaters. As David noted in the Friday Box Office Analysis, this was the last film to be released under Perry's deal with Lionsgate, which might have resulted in the studio pushing it a lot less aggressively. Perry also seemed to be less interested in promoting it, which might stem from the fact that he's already sold the rights to a TV version, so the success of the film might be less important than it otherwise would be. Either way, there seemed to be less awareness than with pretty much all of Perry's films. As such, it might end up being one of the only films of his that doesn't see a profit.

Whether or not this represents a broader trend remains to be seen; Perry's slate as a director seems relatively empty at the moment, with only one film in development with no set release date on the horizon, and his only other project of note being an as an actor in David Fincher's Gone Girl. Considering just how much product he's been flooding the marketplace with in recent years (not just in cinemas; he currently has three TV series on the air), it might be advantageous for him to slow down, and let demand grow for more Perry films, rather than putting something out every couple of months.

Matthew Huntley: I don't think we're witnessing a downward trend for Tyler Perry movies necessarily, and least in terms of their box-office, because I do think he still has the power to connect with his loyal audience, but even his most ardent fans probably know a stinker when they see one. The trailer for The Single Mom's Club simply made it look lame, predictable and un-funny, even for a Tyler Perry movie. Whether or not that's true (I haven't seen it) remains to be seen, but with so many (probably) better options out there, this one didn't seem different or original enough to warrant a trip to the theater. I guess I should finally break down and see a Tyler Perry movie (I never have, unless Star Trek [2009] counts).

Felix Quinonez Jr.: I think all of Tyler Perry's movies look terrible, lame and borderline offensively stupid. They all get bad to horrible reviews so I don't know why this one flopped but I'm glad it did. Maybe after releasing a million movies in seven years people are finally getting tired of his shtick.

Jason Barney: Writing for BOP, I feel embarrassed to admit that I have never seen one of these movies. The downward trend observation fits, as the box office for these continues to be lackluster. This may be a case of my not knowing enough about the subject matter, but at the very least, a fifth place opening is not good opening.

Kim Hollis: I would still contend that between the Madea Christmas movie and this film, Perry's work has shown some cracks. A Madea Christmas opened significantly lower than the other films featuring the character, and managed to take advantage of the holiday season to stumble along to $52 million. Perry isn't going to find a lot of studios who are going to be willing to give his releases prime Christmas season real estate again. Now, with The Single Moms club, we've got his lowest opener ever, back during the regular movie-going season when its final total won't be inflated by holiday attendance. I think it's time for him to evolve a bit and step outside of his traditional comfort zone - or else just take these relatively safe comedies to TV. He needs to grow with his audience.

Tim Briody: The thing to keep in mind is that Tyler Perry's biggest hits have been adaptations of his plays. He was a successful playwright in the South before Diary of a Mad Black Woman was turned into a movie and launched the Tyler Perry brand. The well has essentially run for him dry on stage adaptations, so now it's all original material, which is not enough to get his usual audience to show up.