Survivor: Cagayan Power Rankings
Week 3
By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst
March 12, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Let's start with who is at the top of the list and work our way down to who should be booted this week:
1) Sarah (Brawn) - Sarah has proven herself to be a worthy challenge competitor as she has dominated the puzzle portions. She has also been one of the smarter members of the tribe. She seems like a real player this season and I don't expect it'll take too long before she smells through Tony's nonsense and organizes his ouster. This early in the game, Sarah seems like a very solid player.
2) LJ (Beauty) - His tribe is down in numbers (by one to Brawn) but I'm not sure that matters. He has a solid four person alliance right now and that appears to be the biggest group out there. The Brains are a mess and Brawn seems to be fractured as well. If Beauty can avoid a challenge losing streak, LJ stands to be the kingpin of the biggest and most powerful alliance in the game.
3) Jeremiah (Beauty) - Also part of the main alliance in Beauty, but much more likable than LJ - so much so, that I could see the other tribes wanting to work with him. His issue, with a very limited sample size, is that it looks like he'll stick to the plan rather than make the bold move. If that holds true, he'll eventually be one of LJ's victims.
4) WOO (Brawn) - Probably an odd choice to be this high in the rankings, but right now, I think he has himself in a good spot. He's Cliff's right hand man and Cliff is VERY well liked right now. Except by Tony, who may try to mobilize Cops R Us after the NBAer. Whether this comes to fruition or not, Woo will come out on the other side in decent shape as he's not seen as the big threat. His "everything here is amazing" attitude may also suggest to people that he's not really "playing" the game, which knocks him down a little on the totem poll of people to get rid of. Whether it's planned or by luck, I like how Woo has himself positioned wright now. Hang Dai!
5) Jefra (Beauty) - While right now, Alexis and Jefra are pretty interchangeable on the Beauty tribe, I list Jefra higher because she comes across as playing the game less. Jefra would win the award for "Most Likely to be Carried to the End Because She's a Reliable Vote." There might be more going on behind the pretty face, but thus far we haven't seen it. If there isn't, it makes her a fantastic choice for LJ and Jeremiah to carry to the end.
6) Cliff (Brawn) - Despite Tony's Cliff backlash, I think Cliff is actually in a decent position here. He is extremely likable and has been very solid in challenges as well as helpful around camp. My concern for his endgame is that there is that divide in the Brawn camp and if Tony can convince anyone else to go with him (Trish, maybe) it could come crashing down around him. Overall, though, I'm not sure I see Brawn losing a challenge anytime soon, so Cliff should be around for a while.
7) Lindsay (Brawn) - We don't know a whole lot about Lindsay except that she doesn't like Trish because she's old and bossy and stuff. She is in with Cliff and Woo, but I could see her weaseling her way in with Cops R Us (even though Tony's used her as a lie). All she'd have to do is tell Tony she's down for voting Cliff and she's a honorary officer, like Shaq or Steven Segal. Because I see Brawn staying out of Tribal for a while (yes, I think the whole throwing a challenge is a ruse), she should last.
8) Alexis (Beauty) - As a member of the dominant alliance on the Beauty tribe, I think Alexis will stick around for awhile. I do, however, see her as the weakest of the four person alliance and possibly an agreed upon sacrifice after the tribes merge. She's a little more of a wild card than Jefra and I could see LJ offering her up to help bring in another small group (Cops R Us, maybe) to help give him the numbers later on.
9) Tasha (Brains) - All the way down at #9 we find our first member of the Brains tribe. And it's Tasha. I'm not a fan of how she's been playing, but she does seem to be pulling the strings on Team Chaos. With that in mind, as long as they don't lose every single challenge before the merge, I could see her lasting until then and being absorbed as a swing vote of sorts into a bigger alliance. She is definitely playing the game and will have no trouble turning on her own. That will make her an interesting ally at first, then someone that needs to go once numbers are secured.
10) Spencer (Brains) - While he seems in trouble right now, I have a feeling he won't be the next Brain voted off. And if he survives that vote, he might be able to make a little mini-run in the game. Despite his pre-show video, he's actually kind of a likable kid and he might be able to squeeze into another alliance if he can last to a swap or merge.
11) Morgan (Beauty) - If Beauty loses again, Morgan will be the target. LJ isn't swayed by her and the other girls would be fine with getting rid of the only pretty girl who seems to know how to play this game. I don't think Beauty will lose another challenge for a while; that's why there are four people lower than her on this list. But with a Beauty loss, Morgan will be hanging with her buddy Brice at Ponderosa.
12) Trish (Brawn) - We haven't seen a whole lot of Trish. I know that she likes her some Cliff, but she seems to be an island out there right now. She's not tight with anyone and she's already on Lindsay's radar as a potential target. And on a team of strong competitors, she could be seen as the weakest link. So, I think she's not long for this game, but I don't think she's the Brawn in the most danger.
13) Kass (Brains) - Kass hasn't shown a lot of savvy at playing this game and that's why I don't think she'll last very long. She thinks she has an alliance right now with Tasha and J'Tia, but really? Is that who you want to align with? A schemer and someone who'll dump your food supply? And oh by the way, Kass...you said in a confessional last week that you can "always get more rice." Um, actually...no, you can't. Not unless Probst-ipoo is feeling generous and even then, who knows what you'll have to give up to get it. Right there, you've proven that you are horribly outmatched at this game.
14) Tony (Brawn) - I'm predicting right now that Tony will be the second person voted out this season while holding an immunity idol. He's playing WAY too hard, WAY too soon. #spyshack He had a nice safe alliance with Sarah and then inexplicably lies to her about a conversation that never happened. Why? Because he's playing WAY too hard. He seems to be the one suggesting that Brawn throw a challenge. That's reason enough to get your ass voted out. If they do actually throw the challenge, this could be the week he gets his ticket punched.
15) J'Tia (Brains) - If not, this is the week J'Tia will likely go home. She only survived because Garrett had the most epic meltdown in Tribal Council history and because LJ can't figure out a kiddie maze. I don't care what the alliances look like, eventually she'll pay the piper for her little rice stunt. She's too unstable to keep out there and it's only a short matter of time before Spencer convinces Tasha that J'Tia is the vote. Tasha wanted to vote her out last time, so I don't think it would take that much of a push to get her to that point again. Especially if J'Tia tanks a third challenge.
And there we have it, my first WAG (wild ass guesses) for Power Rankings this season. Can't wait to look back at the end and see how my initial impressions turned out. Love 'em, hate 'em, just want to tell me how bad I suck at this? Follow me and hit me up at: @vannestjc on Twitter! Until next time, take care!