Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
January 22, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: A combination of a proven concept - the buddy-cop comedy, the resilience of which was demonstrated ably by The Heat last summer - and the right pairing to get people excited about something that they've seen tried many, many times. Kevin Hart is clearly the catalyst for this success since he's been an ascendant star for much of the last few years, thanks in large part to his hugely successful work as a stand-up and role in Think Like A Man, but I think Ice Cube brings a fair deal to the table here. He's not a prolific film actor these days, but he was great in 21 Jump Street and has demonstrated that he can be both funny and tough, which are the two qualities required for the part and the story. On top of all this, the trailers were very well put together, and they managed to get the plot across and pair it with just enough solid gags to get people interested. The film itself is, by most accounts, not terribly good, but you can't fault the way in which the film has been marketed and the solid thinking behind pairing Cube and Hart together in a film that plays to their established personas.
Tim Briody: Since there wasn't enough Kevin Hart on our televisions thanks to the deluge of ads for Grudge Match (which earned about $1 per commercial) so they were replaced by ads for Ride Along, which wasn't weighed down with some old guys. Ice Cube is still a decent draw in his own right and add in the whole "underserved niche audience" thing and there you go, new January record.
Jason Barney: I can't speak much to the success of this film, because I really didn't see it coming. Grabbing the biggest January opening is significant, and this continues Universal's run of success that has almost lasted an entire year. A $41 million opening is huge considering the production budget, and this film is going to be pretty profitable. This is performing way above my expectations.
Felix Quinonez: I think it was a combination of things. The trailers for Ride Along, allegedly, seemed appealing. Kevin Hart's star has been steadily rising and was on the verge of breaking out. And it catered to a niche that is generally under served. Also it shouldn't be understated that Ice Cube, in the right role, brings some appeal to the movie.
Kim Hollis: I think that the studio cleverly marketed this with a big focus on Kevin Hart. Clearly, playing second fiddle to Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro is not what people want from him, but they're excited to see him as the featured player. Universal surely knew what they had on their hands even before the movie opened, as they greenlighted a sequel without even thinking about it. It's found money. The Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend has proven to be a profitable one over the last several years, and smart studios have found great success in taking advantage of that spot on the calendar.
David Mumpower: We have spent a lot of time over the past calendar year discussing the evolving marketing behavior of studio releases. This opening weekend is another win for Big Data as the historically under-served African-American and Latino clientele were provided with a wonderful looking project. Over half of the total audience for Ride Along's opening weekend came from those two demographics. The end result is that another spin on what I call the 48 Hours Playbook proved every bit as popular as The Heat last year. While Ride Along's legs may not be as long (damn you, tiny Kevin Hart!), everything about this opening weekend is a huuuuuuge win.
Cloverfield Monster: You haven't heard the last of me.
Kim Hollis: Kim Hollis: The Nut Job, an animated heist movie from Open Road Films, debuted with $19.4 million over the three-day portion of the long holiday weekend. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: Way better than I was expecting and the film deserves, at least based on the reviews. The last month has been pretty starved for new films in general, and for family audiences in particular other than the two-month old Frozen. With nothing else on the horizon until The Lego Movie comes out in a few weeks, this fallow stretch was the perfect time for an upstart like Open Road Films to put something out there that could plausibly stand as an alternative for watching Olaf and friends for the third or fourth time. It helps that, as with Ride Along, the trailers managed to include just enough solid laughs to suggest the film itself wouldn't be awful (no matter how false that impression turned out to be). The negligible quality of the film will probably prevent it from being a breakout success past this weekend, but the lack of direct competition should help it out and allow it to leave theaters with a decent total.
Jason Barney: Much of this film's success has to do with the lack of competition at this point. Frozen is still part of the equation, but its appeal is starting to drop off. With no other kids projects on the schedule, this was a pretty good move to put out until the Lego film debuts. The opening probably could have been a little stronger, and even though the quality appears to be lacking, my guess this will make money in the long run.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is a surprisingly "strong" result. I thought Nut job would barely crack the double digits. This is by no means anything close to a breakout but it could have, and perhaps should have, done a lot worse. But when you consider the low production budget and the fact that there aren't any new animated movies coming out for a couple of weeks, The Nut Job will turn out alright commercially. It might even see a small profit.
Kim Hollis: I think this is a shockingly good result considering the upstart distributor. It's a movie that no adult wanted to see, I'm sure. They're just suffering through it for their kids. Again, with kids out of school on the long weekend, it was a family activity that was... acceptable. The studio should flat out be thrilled with this result.
David Mumpower: A point I would add is that there is not a lot of difference between Free Birds and The Nut Job. One movie opened to $15.8 million sans holiday inflation on its way to a final domestic take of $55.3 million. The other received a four-day holiday bump, grossing $19.4 million during the Friday-Sunday portion of its weekend. The difference stems from perceived expectations toward both projects. Free Birds was a heavily advertised Thanksgiving release that cost $55 million to produce. The Nut Job was not much cheaper at $42.8 million yet it is another one of these cleverly distributed projects from Open Road Films that exceeds all pre-release projections. I feel like I am saying this every couple of months yet it remains true in each instance. Open Road Films is doing a LOT right these days.