Top Film Industry Stories of 2013: #4
Catching Fire Ignites
By David Mumpower
January 12, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Two years ago at this time, most of the world had no idea what The Hunger Games are. Today, the ubiquity of Katniss’s heroics is unmistakable. Many established female protagonists have suddenly been pictured with a bow and arrow simply because Ms. Everdeen made the weapon cool again. And audiences continue to share a hunger (sorry) for the woman who is attempting to elevate District 12 from squalor. Well, what’s left of it.
A year ago at this time, the ascension of The Hunger Games was selected as the fourth most notable story of 2012. I authored that column, remarking that nature abhors a vacuum. The presumption has been that with Harry Potter and Twilight winding down as franchises, something new would be expected to take their place. The fact that an unknown, unestablished property would become as popular as those two franchises seemed unlikely.
The unexpected turn of events was that the first Hunger Games movie outperformed any of the dozen titles released by those two franchises. Twilight’s high water mark was $300.5 million for The Twilight Saga: Eclipse. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 grossed $381 million, over $60 million more than any other Harry Potter movie. How, then, do we explain the fact that The Hunger Games started with $408 million, the 14th best domestic blockbuster of all-time to that point?
In the process, the Suzanne Collins adaptation violated every notion of box office behavior. The first release is supposed to lay the groundwork for a franchise; then, the brand is expected to grow from there. We witnessed this expected behavior with Pirates of the Caribbean, Iron Man/The Avengers, Shrek and the Pixar library. Perhaps the only franchise in the 2000s that debuted so high was Spider-Man, the record-shattering 2001 release. And we all know how the sequels to that superhero movie performed. The magic word is “timbeeeeeeeeeeeeeer!” Ergo, the only previous precedent for The Hunger Games was a title that lost over half of its popularity over the course of three sequels (adjusting for ticket price inflation).
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire quickly went into production. The scintillating performance of the original movie incentivized Lionsgate to strike while the iron was liquid metal hot. Their choice was clear. Do you know how many other non-sequels have earned $400 million domestically in the 2000s? Spider-Man and Avatar. That’s the list. The Avengers would count if we ignored that there was a four movie build-up to its release. And if we went back to include 1990s titles, the only ones we would add are Jurassic Park, Titanic and The Lion King. The 1980s had one: E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial. Are you beginning to appreciate how rare an achievement it was for The Hunger Games to earn $400 million right off the bat?
Logic dictated that The Hunger Games: Catching Fire would open higher than its predecessor, because that is the expected behavior for sequels. Even that was not a foregone conclusion, though. After all, The Hunger Games debuted with $152.5 million, the fourth best opening weekend ever up until that point. How much could the brand be expected to grow after such an exemplary start? The answer proved to be “not much.”
Catching Fire grossed $158.1 million during its initial North American weekend, an expansion of only 3.7%, which is within the margin of error for ticket price inflation over the past year and a half. A rush to judgment occurred as wagging tongues proclaimed that The Hunger Games franchise had already peaked. In reality, Catching Fire was only beginning to soar.
The gains with the sequel occurred abroad before they were achieved domestically. The Hunger Games, for all of its massive popularity in North America, was an anomaly with regards to international appeal. Consider that ten movies released from 2000 to 2012 grossed at least $400 million domestically. Out of the other nine titles, the smallest total global revenue is Spider-Man’s $821 million. With regards to overseas earnings, it is also the worst performer with $418 million, an understandable total since those marketplaces have expanded dramatically over the past dozen years.
The Hunger Games grossed only $285 million abroad. Thirteen other movies did better internationally, including such unexpected titles as Les Misérables, Ted and Men in Black 3. North American audiences experienced love at first sight with Katniss Everdeen. Everybody else in the world was a bit more nonchalant. After only eight weeks in release, Catching Fire has already earned $433 million overseas, an increase of 52% (and counting). It was the third most popular global release of the year.
Amazingly, the box office news was even better on this side of the ocean. Out of the 16 movies ever to reach $400 million in North America, only one franchise has had a sequel surpass the $400 million movie in terms of total box office. That move was Star Wars: Episode One – The Phantom Menace, and it has exceeded the total of the original Star Wars by a minuscule $13.5 million. If we adjust for inflation, Jar Jar Binks’ movie cannot even see Star Wars from here. Simply stated, $400 million movies do not get beaten by their sequels.
Well, that is what we used to say. On January 7, 2014, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire accrued another $669,249, a modest total for such a blockbuster franchise. That amount was enough to give the sequel more revenue than its predecessor. Afterward, Catching Fire sustained its box office momentum long enough to reach an additional milestone. With a running total of $414 million on the date of publication of this column, Catching Fire has become the number one domestically movie released in 2013, surpassing Iron Man 3’s $409 million.
All of the numbers begin to run together after a while. Here is the basic summary of what makes The Hunger Games: Catching Fire so newsworthy. The franchise became only the third one after The Dark Knight and Star Wars to have multiple $400+ million domestic grosses. Catching Fire expanded the franchise’s overseas appeal by over 50%. It became the first sequel to a $400 million movie ever to out-gross the original movie in North America after adjusting for ticket price inflation. And Catching Fire was the number one domestic release of 2013.
What can be said with confidence about The Hunger Games franchise is that it is not just a flash in the pan. The third most popular movie of 2012 begat a sequel, and that successor was the most popular movie of 2013. With two movies yet to be released, there are more records ahead for Katniss Everdeen. The Hunger Games franchise has a legitimate chance to carve out a piece of history as the most popular franchise of all time.