Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
January 9, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Felix Quinonez: I'm really torn on this result. On one hand, I really thought it would and wanted The Wolf of Wall Street to do a lot better. The movie was marketed like crazy and had a lot of hype and buzz around it. Aside from that, Martin Scorsese is a living legend who is only recently really hit his peak commercially. And if that wasn't enough, it stars Leonardo DiCaprio, who has has been pretty much on fire at the box office lately. Most people agree that they are a great director/actor combo. Because of all that I really expected Wolf of Wall Street to perform closer to Django Unchained did last year. So my first reaction is to call its box office performance a disappointment.
On the other hand, it is three hours long and doesn't really scream out family Christmas time entertainment. I know the same can be said about Django but I felt like that had a more appealing story. So I think maybe my - and a lot of other people's - expectations for Wolf of Wall Street were a bit unfair. I think this is a movie that was never really supposed to explode out of the gate but maybe it's more of a slow burner. And I know a lot has been said about the fact that it got a "C" Cinemascore. Yes, that's really bad but I remember Shutter Island had a similar score and that went on to have pretty good legs. I think sometimes the score can be misleading because for some movies, audiences have to mull it over a bit before it really grows on them. Because of this I think the first reactions might not be the best way to gauge audience response.
So I guess what I'm saying is that even though the result might seem disappointing, it's still pretty good and there is still chance for Wolf of Wall Street to grow.
Edwin Davies: I think this is acceptable verging on good, considering we're talking about a three hour long, extremely hard-R rated satire, all of which are potentially limiting as far as the box office is concerned. I loved the film, especially how uncompromising and unrestrained it was, but those same qualities will rub a lot of other people the wrong way, which is why the word-of-mouth for the film has been so wildly divided. That it has done so well despite all of this is a testament to DiCaprio's current hot streak and Scorsese's reputation as a real master.
Bruce Hall: Looking back on Scorsese's career, the two biggest opening weekends are Shutter Island ($41 million), which opened in February 2010, and The Departed ($26 million), which won an early October weekend against light competition back in 2006. These are also the two most financially successful films of his career, topping out at $133 million and $128 million domestically.
Aside from that, The Wolf of Wall Street actually represents the third biggest opening weekend of Scorsese's storied career (not adjusted for inflation). Aside from those two films, nothing else the man has done - from Raging Bull to Goodfellas - has opened as well as The Wolf of Wall Street.
So what does this tell us? Nothing really, other than A) expectations for The Wolf of Wall Street may have been unrealistically high, and B) opening weekend doesn't necessarily tell the whole story, because every film has its own story. And in this case, I believe the story has an upside.
Out of nearly 30 feature films directed, Scorsese has seen 13 of them break $30 million at the box office, nine over $50 million and three over $100 million. And that third hit is The Aviator, which opened to an inauspicious $858,000 in December 2004 before going on to earn about $102 million domestically.
Wow. I actually didn't even know that until I looked it up. Scorsese makes high quality, stylistically distinctive, thought provoking material that relies a lot on word-of-mouth for long term success. The man's work is a slow burn, and the very light 27% in receipts The Wolf experienced from first to second frame suggests we may be seeing the same thing at work here. Time will tell, but time seems to be what it takes for most of Scorsese's work to find its audience. And when it does, I suspect that The Wolf of Wall Street stands a fair chance of being that fourth $100 million earner.
And by the way, you know who the star of those Big Three earners was?
Leonardo DiCaprio.
Max Braden: I think that's strong and reflects an uncommon type of Scorsese movie. With many of Scorsese's films, part or a lot of the draw is the feeling that you're going to get an authentic view behind the curtain of worlds you're not normally allowed to access. In some cases it's a glimpse, and in other cases there's a strong tale to the movie. So in Goodfellas, Casino, Gangs of New York, and The Departed, you're going into the movie wondering how the main character is going to get out of his obviously spiraling lifestyle alive. I don't get that sense about The Wolf of Wall Street from the trailers (I haven't seen the movie yet). It looks more like the point is to get a taste of 1980s excess, like The Aviator or a modern Great Gatsby. I assume DiCaprio's character is doomed, but I don't really care; the draw for me is the hubris on display. He looks like Gordon Gekko turned up to 11. In that sense this movie plays more like a comedy than a drama. Yet everyone knows this is still a Scorsese drama, so I wouldn't expect it to make noisy comedy money. I see this movie just chugging away at the box office and continuing to make money. It wouldn't surprise me if The Wolf of Wall Street turns out to be one of Scorsese's highest grossing movies on the lower end of the opening weekend figure list.
Kim Hollis: I think the number is fine, though with a $100 million budget the film still has some work to do domestically. It probably suffers some from the tethering - whether justified or not - to American Hustle. People seem to prefer one or the other. Additionally, since all of the Christmas releases performed well below expectations, Wolf of Wall Street might be suffering from negative association there as well. Depending on what Oscar nominations look like, it could hang around for a bit. I hesitate to call this a disappointment since the story is such that I think it has a limited audience to begin with.
Kim Hollis: The Secret Life of Walter Mitty made $8 million this weekend, and has a total since Christmas day of $45.5 million. What do you think of this result?
Felix Quinonez: I feel like Walter Mitty should have dominated the family movie crowds. This seemed like the sort of movies families would want to see on Christmas and I feel like a lot of money was left on the table. Unlike Wolf of Wall Street, which will most likely get a lot of awards attention that might lead to strong Legs, Mitty should have made a lot of of its money during the holiday period because after new year I think this movie will pretty much disappear.
Edwin Davies: This is a pretty mediocre result considering that the film was billed as a very broadly appealing dramedy, one that should have taken advantage of the holiday to become the family film of choice. In the end, though, I think the ads didn't really put the plot across strongly enough, and the reviews were middling so it couldn't overcome the lackluster marketing, paving the way for it to be steamrolled by Frozen.
Max Braden: Agreed, on paper (from the release date, scope, and trailer), this should have been performing better. I would have expected it to perform like The Curious Case of Benjamin Button due to the fantasy, globetrotting, and romance. Button opened at Christmas time in 2008 to the same number of theaters but earned over double what Mitty has in each of its first two weekends. Maybe Stiller and Wiig aren't the heartthrobs that Pitt and Blanchett were, but the reason I failed to respond to Mitty's trailer was because it just looks like they're trying too hard to make the movie precious. So he daydreams, so what? Other than some nifty visuals, I can see audiences wondering why they should go see the movie. The movie is also bound to struggle in awards season because it's not included in the Golden Globes or major Guild awards lists.
Kim Hollis: I think Max has hit upon the key problem for Mitty - it just looks overly saccharine and precious. Stiller's a likable guy, but the frat pack as a whole (other than Will Ferrell in Anchorman) seems to be seeing its popularity wane. I think a lot of them should look at some alternate possibilities, like Owen Wilson with a planned Starz TV series. It's like everyone got weary of them all at once. Mitty had some interesting stuff happening in the trailer, but it's one of those things that feels like Spike Jonze ought to be directing it.
Kim Hollis: 47 Ronin, the $175 million-budgeted Keanu Reeves film, finished in 11th place with $5 million and has earned $32.7 million since opening on Christmas day. What went wrong here?
Felix Quinonez: Judging by the reviews 47 Ronin is apparently a terrible movie but that hasn't stopped movies from making a lot of money before. So I think the blame really should go to the marketing. When I saw the trailers I felt like they didn't even try to explain what the movie was about. The commercials felt like a bunch of random action pieces cut together. But even if the action looks cool people still need to know what's going on or why they should care; otherwise no one's going to want to see it.
I also really believe that they overestimated how well known the story was. I think that they might have assumed that audiences knew what the story was about but that clearly wasn't the case.
Edwin Davies: The marketing for 47 Ronin was awful. Truly dreadful. The ads only gave off the impression that it had samurais and demon things with no broader context, and the effects themselves looked pretty unimpressive. If you've got a terrible film that you've already delayed by over a year, the least you can do is make it look exciting or appealing, and the ads for 47 Ronin were neither.
Bruce Hall: I can't speak for anyone else, but the marketing for 47 Ronin certainly worked for me. Of course, this is because I am a child, and the minute I see Samurai swords and guys doing back flips in slow motion while fighting CGI dragons with bamboo poles, I'm sold. Unfortunately the rest of the world is far more mature than I am, and prefers that a movie trailer give you at least one good reason to fork over ten bucks and two hours of life.
The trailers were heavy on computer generated action and mystical imagery, which is a plus. But none of it was in any sort of context, making it feel less like a movie and more like a Playstation commercial. Also, it might have contained every trope from every action movie Hollywood has ever made about Japan crammed into 90 seconds.
Also, Keanu Reeves. I have nothing against the man but I am not sure most people were entirely buying him in whatever capacity they were trying to sell him here. Some of us have always wanted to see a mashup of The Last Samurai and The Matrix, and some of us haven't.
I also agree with Felix's point about the story. Typically only unusual people like me, who think every movie should have swords in it know the story of the 47 Ronin. Simply pitching this as a supernatural version of an already awesome story might have done wonders, but if the film is as underwhelming as I've heard (I haven't seen it yet), it wouldn't have mattered in the long run.
Kim Hollis: I'm with Bruce. I thought the trailers for 47 Ronin were intriguing. But I love Asian mystical stuff, so I'm a pretty easy target in that regard. Ultimately, I don't really think this film was created with North American box office in mind so much as overseas. The big trouble is that the film has failed utterly in those venues as well, including Japan, where samurais and the story of the 47 ronin in this movie are far better known.
Max Braden: Well first of all, what went wrong was someone decided it would be okay to spend $175 million on this project. Were the filmmakers under the delusion that audiences thew money at the Matrix movies because Keanu Reeves was in them? Even if you market it as a must-see-on-the-big-screen spectacle piece, a cinematic movie about ronin is going to be compared to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon or Jet Li's Hero. This movie was doomed to not make anywhere near the money that 300 or even the Middle Earth movies made. There's just not a $175 million audience for it. You know what that underdog-against-all-odds gamble is? It's not noble, it's just box office suicide. And also this movie reminded me of Sucker Punch, which was crap.
Kim Hollis: It's been a rough year for Sylvester Stallone, as even Grudge Match couldn't really get off the ground. The film, which pits him against Robert De Niro, earned $5.3 million this weekend and has a running total since Christmas of $24.8 million. Why didn't this one appeal to more people?
Felix Quinonez: I don't think anyone, certainly not me, is going to argue with the fact that Stallone and De Niro have done A LOT of great work but they really need to move on. As tough as it might be for them to admit it, I don't think a lot of people are interested in seeing them try to relive their glory days. I'm almost positive that a lot of people under the age of 20 don't even know about Raging Bull and might be confused as to why they should care about Rocky in a boxing match with Robert De Niro.
Edwin Davies: I think most people were just embarrassed by the very idea of watching an old Rocky and an old Jake LaMotta fight each other. It's just such a cheesy idea, one that reeks of desperation and cynicism that wasn't backed up by any solid gags in the ads or a compelling central story (even if the meta-story of the film's production really fit the story of the film); it's telling that the ads relied heavily on Kevin Hart and Alan Arkin, rather than DeNiro and Stallone, suggesting there wasn't much interesting at the heart of the film. The reviews were pretty poor, and families and adults were both catered for by better films, which hurt its chances of breaking out.
Max Braden: Boy, audiences are missing out: the combined life experience of the four main actors totals 250 years! De Niro, at 70-years-old, is older in this movie than Burgess Meredith was in the original Rocky movie. At least Last Vegas knew its audience - an older generation getting a tickle out of seeing some older gentlemen let loose a little. None of Stallone or De Niro's fans want to see their skin hanging off of them trying to last one round in the ring. Unfortunately this premise could have worked - Play It to the Bone was a great little over-the-hill boxing movie. And I'll gladly go see Stallone blow things up as a mercenary in The Expendables 3. But when they start taking their shirts off, you need to pick leads that are a few decades younger.
Kim Hollis: We documented the decline of Stallone and other '80s action heroes in the Top 12 Film Industry Stories of 2013, and I think this is part of a continued backlash and after-effect of audiences losing interest in him. When I saw ads for this, I was so disheartened, because it looked so terrible and yet I was certain audiences would flock to its terribleness. I'm so pleased that didn't happen after all.
Kim Hollis: Justin Bieber's Believe is officially a bomb. It earned just $573,566 this weekend and has made only $6 million since Christmas day. First of all, say something funny about Believe. Second of all, what happened?
Felix Quinonez: I think that plain and simple, the Bieber Fever is just about over. At the time of his peak, he was on top of the world and seemed like it would last. But the fact is that, as mean as it sounds, these teen idols have a short shelf life. For every Justin Timberlake that manages to successfully move on there are plenty of others whose time runs out and their fans move on.
I also think that he didn't really help matters by behaving the way he has recently. It's gotten to the point that just about everyone is rooting for this kid to fail. I really think that he tried too hard to be the next Timberlake way too soon. It took the former Justin years before he could finally ditch his 'N Sync past and I feel like Bieber tried to rush it.
But even though I'm not arguing that this is a flop, it should be pointed out that Believe opened in about a third as many screens as the last documentary. And it's the second documentary on the kid in two years! Plus it had a $5 million budget so at least it's not a financial disaster.
Edwin Davies: I guess when he pissed in that mop bucket he pissed away a lot of the goodwill people had for him, assuming they had any to begin with.
Felix touches on what I consider the key factors with this result: teen stars have a limited shelf life in general, and Never Say Never was a great example of striking while the iron is hot. Believe is an even better example of what happens when the bloom goes off the rose, either because the fans move on or because the star does something to alienate their fans. Even though he's got a lot of followers on Twitter, I think his general dickishness has put a lot of people off him, as has his seeming inability to really grow as an artist to appeal to different fans other than the ones who made him a star, then outgrew him.
Max Braden: Music fans were all headed in One Direction, away from Bieber. I will say that I'm willing to give him a little break on this box office performance, and I'm not convinced the fault is due to TMZ-worthy antics outside of music. Relatively, compared to other concert movies, this is a bomb, but considering how huge the stars are (billions of dollars or VEVO views), Katy Perry's Part of Me and One Direction's This is Us both grossed a total of less than $30 million. That's not exactly setting the box office on fire. I haven't been to any of their concerts, but I imagine the draw for their core fans at live concerts is the idea that "I'm right here, and they're *right there* [hundreds of yards away]". They get to scream their heads off during the whole experience. And even in clubs they get to dance and sing along to their idol's music. You can't do that in a movie theater, so unless there's some completionist or intellectual interest in what makes this artist really tick, the core fan might as well save their money for another mp3. Plus I get the feeling that Bieber isn't at his charting peak right now, and maybe if he were, the box office would be higher for this movie. Still, I saw no advertising for this movie, so that couldn't have helped either.
Kim Hollis: I have never known a real live Justin Bieber fan. I have also never heard a Justin Bieber film. The fact that this small number of people saw the film means that there are fewer of them to shoo off my lawn.