Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
January 7, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com

As far as you know, I was amazing!

Kim Hollis: Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones earned $18.3 million this weekend on a scant $5 million budget. What do you think about this result, and what do you think this means for Paranormal Activity 5, slated to open later this year?

Jason Barney: Even with Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones opening less than expected and allowing Frozen to take first place, there is a story of profitability with these films that cannot be ignored. Sure, the numbers have decreased over the life of the franchise, but I am not sure Paramount really cares. I am almost surprised the story of how much money these films make does not get more attention. Paramount discovered a gold mine and a formula for making money without much risk, and they have exploited that for every cent it is worth. With an official budget of $5 million, even with marketing costs, this is already extremely profitable, and the studio has nothing to worry about. I doubt they are even concerned about the diminishing return of the series. Who would be? When they can invest so little and at the end of opening weekend be smiling at the profitability, they have made incredibly smart decisions. The wisdom and logic of putting money into this sort of investment rather than a studio investing in something like Lone Ranger or Man of Steel… this just makes a lot more economic sense. Paramount can only smile, even if this is making fewer dollars than the earlier installments.

Edwin Davies: This confirms what we saw with Paranormal Activity 4, that the franchise has worn out its welcome pretty quickly - quicker even than the Saw franchise that it helped kill - but that the costs on these films are so low that it doesn't matter too much. I also think that expectations for The Marked Ones were lower since it's a spin-off, rather than a direct sequel, and it's rare for a spin-off to do as well as a film from the main franchise. I would expect Paranormal Activity 5 to do better than The Marked Ones, but I wouldn't expect it to arrest the decline that is very much set in at this point.

Tony Kollath: The timing of the release feels really weird, as this was the first film in the series that was not released at Halloween. As there were no horror films, aside from the Carrie remake, released in October 2013, the Paranormal Activity franchise probably left a lot of money on the table by choosing this release date. Still, making four times your production budget over the opening weekend ensures that PA will win the Nobel Prize for Return on Investment in Movies, whenever that category is established.

Felix Quinonez: When you consider the budget, this is a clear winner. But as far as the franchise is concerned, I think that it's clearly old news. I don't think PA5 will reverse the downward trajectory. They should just bill the next one as the final chapter and add 3D to attract whatever interest is left and call it a night like the Saw series did.


Max Braden: It doesn't surprise me that the Paranormal Activity series would be more of a flash in the pan than the Saw series. Saw has a stronger story arc with an identifiable villain and interesting means of demise. Paranormal Activity is more like scuffing up your socks on shag carpet and zapping each other. You know the shock is coming, it's not very interesting, but the shock value is still enough to have the players saying "do it again!" So I'm not surprised this movie made money over its budget yet again. I am a little surprised that they bothered with the theatrical expense rather than just releasing it directly to home video.

David Mumpower: I agree with the consensus opinion that the franchise has worn out its welcome. In fact, I suspect that the producers of the Paranormal Activity franchise recognize the fading interest as well. The latest movie feels like a calculated attempt to capitalize on the brand while it has any remaining support. A low rent version of Paranormal Activity, a film series that was low rent from the start, represents a blatant cash grab. We will probably see a full reboot in a decade because these horror flicks are so easy to throw together. In the interim, there will almost assuredly be a couple of quick attempts to earn money based on name recognition alone. So I have to view The Marked Ones as the early warning signal of the next decade of Paranormal Activity. The bean counters are in charge now.

Kim Hollis: I think this feels like a transparent cash grab as well a cynical attempt to capitalize on the concept of niche marketing. With a Latino cast and some Spanish dialogue in the film, the studio appears to have been blatantly trying to pull that audience into theaters. It didn't work, because only 11% of moviegoers were Latino. The franchise started showing signs of decline with the fourth film, and I think that not only has this shown that people are tired of Paranormal Activity, I actually think it damages the fifth film set to come out in October as well. Sure, it's going to make money, but we saw last year that horror fans get really, truly excited for original, fresh ideas. It's just the epitome of laziness to keep releasing Paranormal Activity movies - essentially the same film over and over - several years running.

Kim Hollis: Frozen returned to the #1 position this weekend after six weeks in theaters. Its weekend total was $19.6 million, and it is sitting with $296.7 million so far. Given what has transpired over the holidays, what are your updated thoughts about Frozen?

Jason Barney: These numbers for Frozen are fantastic, and you have to think that Disney is proud of what their product has been able to accomplish. The animated flick still isn't done, as January's box office is sometimes somewhat soft, and it is the #1 film in the country six weeks after release. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if it does extremely well throughout January, and is still hanging around a bit in February. I know that sounds crazy for a movie that was released during Thanksgiving, but that is the reality. Domestically, it is going to probably end up in the $340 million range, but who knows? The holiday weekends are over from here on out, but when a film has had legs for this long, it seems unlikely for the momentum to suddenly stop. Worldwide, the totals are going to approach $700 or $725 million, which is just remarkable. If you would have said this film would out perform Man of Steel or the original Hunger Games at the worldwide box office, people would have given you funny looks. But that is the reality of how well Frozen has done.

Edwin Davies: This is a simply stunning result. Back when it opened, I thought Frozen had a decent shot at $250 million after its nearly record-breaking opening weekend, but that it would fade away as the glut of new product flooded the market during Christmas. In actuality, the opposite happened. The new films opened, they pretty much all faded away before the Christmas week was over, and Frozen leveraged its position as the biggest, best family offering to be THE film of Christmas and New Year. This is a beautiful combination of great scheduling and exceptional quality winning the day, and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets close to toppling Despicable Me 2 as the third highest grossing 2013 release.

Felix Quinonez: Simply put, I think this is remarkable. Frozen has already exceeded my wildest expectations and thanks to its great holiday run, it should be able to get more headlines which will in turn keep its momentum going. I don't see it getting as high as Despicable Me 2 but it is a huge hit nonetheless.

Max Braden: Based on my six-year-old niece's rendition at Christmas, the homerun of this movie is the Let it Go song. (For me it was In Summer). I'm still amazed that "this Frozen movie" turned out to be such a juggernaut, but at the same time having seen the movie, not so surprised. I think it lacks some of the giggle factor of other animated blockbusters, and some of the emotional awe of better animated movies, but when you can entertain adults and make kids feel (...big? triumphant? Frozen's princess is one of the least princessy of their lineup, yet she seems to be connecting with kids more powerfully than many of the others) at the same time, you're making money.

David Mumpower: The last time we evaluated Frozen, we were glowing in our praise of a $93.9 million result over five days, a total that dwarfed even the legendary Thanksgiving run of Toy Story 2 in 1999. What was strange about the conversation at the time was that The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, not Frozen, was the number one movie in North America. From the day before Thanksgiving until Christmas Day, the instant animated classic finished in first place exactly five times out of 29 days. From December 26th until January 6th, a period of 12 days, Frozen has finished in first place eight times. The number two movie over Thanksgiving was the number one movie over Christmas.

Extending this line of thinking a bit, Frozen was the number one movie in North America on eight different days during 2013. We are six days into 2014, and it has already finished first five times. If Frozen maintains the top spot through Thursday, it will already have spent as many days at the top of the charts this year as it did in 2013. That's incomprehensible to me. While some will shrug this off as more indicative of the failures of the Christmas releases than anything positive about Frozen, I disagree with the assertion.

Consider that Catching Fire and Frozen were effectively tied on December 10th, separated by $90,944 worth of box office on that day. At the time, Catching Fire had grossed $340.2 million while Frozen totaled $138.8 million. Fast forward to the close of business yesterday. Catching Fire has reached $407.7 million, and will surpass Iron Man 3 at some point this week to become the top 2013 release in terms of domestic box office. It has earned $67.5 million from December 11th to yesterday. During that same time frame, Frozen has somehow accumulated $159.6 million. I do not possess the ability as a writer to quantify how novel this reversal of fortune is in terms of box office history.

We can talk about the holidays and their inflation of Frozen all we want, but those discussion topics miss the forest for the trees. The continued demand for Frozen, the causality for its old school movie legs, is spectacular quality. A strong argument can be made that Frozen has already become THE family film of this generation. People are discovering it anew each and every day and they are begging their friends to follow suit immediately afterward.