Top Chef Power Rankings
By David Mumpower
November 13, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Nina is about to party like her blood-alcohol is .1999.

The Power Rankings for this season of Top Chef have the same general rules as during previous seasons. Top Chef is one of the most straightforward reality programs to evaluate because there are winners and losers every week. As such, I rarely stray far from the results each week save for a hunch here and there. As an example, Brooke Williamson had struggled a bit when I presented last season’s first power rankings. The instant she did well in a single challenge, I moved her up to the top two and she rarely strayed from there the rest of the season. I do use some hunches based on editing in order to make educated guesses about later results. Sometimes the outcome is obvious (see: Paul Qui) and other times the most generic performance possible can still lead to victory (see: Kevin Sbraga).

1) Nina Compton
Had I done the power rankings last week, she would have been slotted lower. I have believed her to be the strongest contestant since she emerged victorious in the season premiere. Her behavior with Michael was alarming, though. The brutal reality of Top Chef is that players must work well in groups in order to reach the end of the game. Nina’s unwillingness to assist her partner was problematic but that particular conflict has been resolved with Michael’s removal from competition. What we have left to evaluate are Nina’s results thus far. She has three victories, a tally that leads the competition, and has finished in the top group on two other occasions. She is a force in this competition and clearly the player others perceive her to be the best of the best thus far.

2) Justin Devillier
There is very little difference between second and third place in my estimation. Justin has won thanks to a delicious beignet and he has earned a spot in the top group on two other occasions thus far. The fact that Nina has as many wins as the second place contestant has top group finishes speaks volumes about her cooking thus far. But this isn’t about Nina. It’s about Justin, the homegrown chef who has demonstrated that there can be such a thing as a home field advantage on Top Chef. He has shown knowledge of the local clientele while using his experience with the various suppliers and in-season foods to excel in challenges.

3) Carrie Mashaney
I have debated Justin vs. Carrie more than any normal person ever should. The argument for Carrie is that she has a win plus three other upper group positions, one more than Justin. She also seems to be the most unflappable chef this season. I will not be surprised if Carrie winds up at the top of the power rankings at some point as I believe four people have separated themselves from the pack. She is one of the top dogs so to speak but, you know, attractive so not at all a dog otherwise.

4) Shirley Chung
Shirley is the incarnation of kinetic energy. She is always moving and she is always talking. I find her absolutely exhausting at times. I imagine several of the chefs are in agreement on this point. What cannot be denied is that she is a lot of fun to be around. Shirley embraces life, and she is as quick to smile as any player in the history of the show. That’s refreshing. She is also establishing herself as a premiere competitor this season. Thus far, she has a victory and two other appearances at the top, the same as Justin and only slightly behind Carrie. Shirley is a vibrant contestant who I hope sticks around for the body of the season.

5) Nicholas Elmi
Fifth place is the spot where I start to play hunches. Nicholas has received the “doing it for my family” edit that worked well for Joshua last season. Thus far, Nick has primarily won a personal feud with Jason, yelled at Bret for being honest about Jason and finished in the top group during the most recent pair of elimination challenges. He is also getting a lot of face time, which can be good or bad.

6) Stephanie Cmar
Stephanie has already demonstrated that she was worthy of a chef’s jacket last season. What cost her then may yet prove to be her undoing this season. Stephanie gets so dialed up in trying to impress people she likes and respects that her natural talent is neutralized. We saw it with Emeril Lagasse last season and John Besh last week. There was even a smaller version of the same scenario with Lea Michele, someone she mentioned she adored during the Halloween episode. In each of these instances, Stephanie presented a dish unworthy of her skill. During challenges when she had no desire to impress others, she has done quite well. I have no idea how she overcomes this conundrum, though. There are always culinary heavyweights during the final few episodes each season.

7) Carlos Gaytan
Carlos is another chef I really enjoy. He is a self-made man who worked for free in the vocation he loved in order to master his craft. We should all be so self-motivated and disciplined. He is also a worthy contender, having already won a challenge. He also made the face of Glee feel tingly inside, which means he has already become the new Fabio on Top Chef. There is a lot of money in being Fabio-esque. My concern with Carlos is that he struggled with the Vietnamese challenge because it was so far outside his natural skill set. He may be someone who lacks the depth of cooking ability to defeat his peers. I will elevate him in the power rankings if he does begin to show that he is more than just a master of Mexican flavors. Even if he isn’t, Carlos seems to be winning at life.

8) Travis Masar
I hit Travis very hard for the disaster that was the Vietnam episode. What I believe I did unfairly was that I did not credit him enough for coming back and winning the following elimination challenge, the Halloween party. I still think he is a self-absorbed twerp but that is not to say that he is in over his head on Top Chef. Thus far, he is squarely in the middle with a win and a top group showing against a bottom group showing and a carving disaster last week that could have proved fatal had others not choked worse.

9) Sara Johannes
This placement is another hunch. Sara was the first person shown this season. I have to believe that this was not coincidental. As such, I am slotting her higher than her performance to date would justify. Sara finished in the top bunch during the first challenge. Since then, she has finished on the bottom twice, including crafting a meal last week that would ordinarily be cause for dismissal from a job, much less a cooking competition. Sara is a cool chick and an engrossing individual but she has done little of note on the show thus far.

10) Brian Huskey
I mentioned that Nicholas was getting face time. That does not always mean good things. The inverse is also true. Not getting face time does not always mean bad things. Brian could be headed toward a deep run on the show so there is no point in putting him out front thus far. Alternately, he is like Bene, a nice man and gifted chef who does not make for great TV and is not cutthroat enough to be a threat to win Top Chef. Brian has zero finishes in the top group and only one finish in the bottom group, meaning that he has barely caused a ripple thus far. I really like what I have seen of him as a person, though.

11) Louis Maldonado
This ranking for Louis is actually a bit lower than his actual play justifies thus far. My philosophy here is simple. During a Quickfire elimination challenge, Louis narrowly avoided being voted out. He has received little camera time thus far, and he seemed even more nondescript than Brian. I think that he too is another Bene. I want to reinforce that I would take a Bene as the chef of my restaurant anywhere any time. The problem is that the lack of a killer instinct is regularly a fatal flaw on Top Chef.

12) Patty Vega
I honestly had not expected Patty to last this long due to her horrible set of nerves at the stat of the season. To her credit, Patty has not only redeemed herself but also flashed significant skill in the kitchen. She has even finished in the top group twice recently. Still, there is no ignoring the fact that Patty has far and away the most finishes on the bottom of the remaining players with four. Yes, three of those occurred during the first three challenges but the other one happened last week so I cannot state with confidence that she is past her battle with nerves.

13) Janine Booth

Janine has already defeated six (!) opponents in Last Chance Kitchen. As impressive as that stat may be, she still has another 10 or so she would have to knock off in order to earn re-entry into the competition. Until such a time as we are close to the end of the season, the defending champion of Last Chance Kitchen will remain at the bottom of the Power Rankings, even if something odd happens as was the case with eventual champion Kristen Kish last season. The odds are stacked against lightning striking twice like that.