Survivor: Blood vs Water - Power Rankings
Week 8
By Ben Willoughby
November 5, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
How the merge is going to shake out is a little more complicated than in past seasons, because of the tribe switch and the loved ones, but going into the merge everyone seems to be thinking that the original alliances of old and the new tribes are going to stick together.
1. Aras
Everyone still sees Aras as being the one to beat, and now there is a definite plan to get rid of him. The new Tadhana alliance led by Tyson has five votes, and while they need a sixth, they have ties to both Laura? (who presumably would be happy to vote for Aras) and John that they can work with. We haven’t seen if Aras is aware of the burgeoning threat on his own tribe, but then again since everyone else is ready to vote him off, who is he able to voice any concerns to?
2. Tina
Tina has been running the votes on the new Galang for the last couple of episodes, but things are going to change a lot with the merge. Fortunately for Tina, she has options. Option A is getting the original Galang alliance of herself, Aras, Tyson, Gervase and Monica back together, and adding loved ones Katie and Vytas. But even if that is possible, seven is too many people in an alliance at this stage, and it would inevitably fracture. Option B is taking the opportunity to vote out Aras at the merge, and then building new alliances over the coming episodes. However, this is super-risky and will only happen if Tina sees an Aras boot as inevitable. Option C is building a new alliance with Katie, Aras and Vytas that would also include Monica (who has nowhere else to go) and one other. That has its challenges, because who can they tempt into an alliance of six with two pairs and Monica? Still, I think Option C is the most likely.
3. Tyson
This looks like this week will be Tyson’s week, where he either redeems himself for his past Survivor Bonehead Moment and succeeds in getting rid of Aras, or he over-calculates and gets completely blind-sided. Honestly, I’d be happy with either one.
4. Gervase
Gervase is one of the new Tadhana alliance, but he continues to play a quiet game. He seems convinced of the need to get rid of Aras at some stage, though he has let Tyson take the lead at this stage, which makes me think he’s following his own agenda. If there’s anyone on that Tadhana five who could be convinced to flip on Tyson, Gervase seems to be the most likely candidate.
5. Vytas
Vytas’ meditative powers have been working so far, but with the merge and his presumed Aras pair-up he is not getting to be any less of a target. He is fast running out of dummies who will shoot themselves in the foot before others get a chance to vote for him and frankly, I don’t think anyone left in the game really trusts him. I think they all like him, but I think Vy-“your skin looks great”-tas is a little too transparent.
6. Ciera
Ciera is in the new Tadhana alliance, and if her mother wins the Redemption Island challenge, Ciera can bring her into the alliance, guaranteeing an Aras vote-out and establishing some credibility. Of course, being the only pair in that alliance would make both Ciera and Laura? firm targets for the next blind-side in a few weeks, but whatever.
7. Katie
Katie is seen as a tag-along, which doesn’t speak much for her power in the tribe. But tag-alongs often hang around for a while because there’s no overriding reason for getting rid of them.
8. Caleb
We haven’t seen much of Caleb since the tribe switch. He’s in the new Tadhana alliance and that’s about it.
9. Hayden
Except for feeling sad about Kat’s departure, we haven’t seen much of Hayden, either. But he seems in with the new Tadhana alliance as well.
10. Monica
For all the talk about Brad being an anchor, Monica’s position is not looking that great. It looks like the original Galang alliance is not going to be revived after the merge, and she doesn’t seem to have any options beyond sticking with the Aras-Tina group.
Redemption Island
Continuing with the theme of actually believing what “Next Time on Survivor” says, the Redemption Island duel is about hanging onto the top of the pole for as long as you can. This challenge is as much about concentration, will-power and having tiny, tiny feet as it is about strength – but the winner’s biggest challenge will be making any alliances once they are back in the game.
1. Laura?
I’m putting Laura? in the #1 spot because I think she is the one most likely to win this week’s challenge, and also the one I believe would have the biggest impact if they were to return to the game. There will be 11 players at the merge, so six people are needed to control the vote, yet no current alliance has more than five people. Laura? also has a loved one still in the game, which could provide her with a ready-made alliance. But I think the game will be a little less predictable if Laura? made a comeback.
2. John
He’s not my #1 pick, but I think John has a reasonable shot at winning the Redemption Island duel. But if he does win, he has both too many options and too few. With no loved one in the game and his former alliance broken, he can go whichever way he wants. But it’s also worth remembering that his original tribe voted him out because they think he is shady (when he’s really just a bit clueless), and he doesn’t have a relationship with any of the returnees (who by the way, voted out his wife at first sight). Coming into a merged tribe split 5-5 with him as the swing brings opportunities, but if he’s to do well, he’ll have to work hard at building new bonds while being seen as a physical threat.
3. Rupert’s Laura
I expect that Rupert’s Laura was crossing her fingers and toes for a water challenge this week. However, all Redemption Island duels must take place in the Redemption Island arena, so Rupert’s Laura’s chances of winning this challenge are about as good as Rupert’s Laura’s chances of winning if she were to re-enter the game.
All in all, I’m looking forward to tonight’s episode. The last couple of episodes have felt a little dull, as the pre-merge episodes tend to be, and I’m more than ready for some anything-goes pre-Tribal Council scrambling.