Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
October 1, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: While it did not open to the high end of tracking estimates, this is still a good, successful start for the sequel. $34 million is a very strong start for this kids flick, and it ensures positive outcomes on a number of fronts. The likelihood that Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 makes money is a virtual certainty now, based on this one being cheaper than the original. The opening is only slightly larger than the original, but that is fine, as it cost significantly less. This opening is also good for Hollywood, as I think the only other film to open north of $35 million since late July was Insidious 2. That is a pretty significant drought.
Brett Ballard-Beach: I was all set to write this opening off as more than a little disappointing, until I read about how significantly cheaper this was in relation to the first (at $78 million, about 25% less) and tempered my reaction by remembering that September is still one of the two slowest box office months - along with January - and that a $35 million start is nothing to achoo at. It has no competition for five more weeks and even then should be in play until Thanksgiving, but I am more than a little befuddled at this not being bigger. With the goodwill and long legs of the first one, and ad campaigns that seemed perfectly engineered for selling a sequel - more of what you liked from the first, but also lots of new stuff - and being the first animated film since Despicable Me 2 with the ability to get adults outside of those coming in with kids, the fact that this still wasn't all that close to Hotel Transylvania stymies me.
Felix Quinonez: I can't help but feel that this is a bit of a disappointment. With the general goodwill of the first film and the marketing done on this one I feel like it should have done at least a little better than this. Given what we know about how sequels perform, I think this one will end up lower domestically. I understand that the budget was lowered for this so it doesn't have to make as much as the first one but I really don't think any one makes movies to break even or make a little bit of money.
Bruce Hall: This is welcome news for Sony, after what I would charitably call a "quiet" summer. $35 million doesn't feel very earth shattering after a very active blockbuster season, but it puts the movie in the top five September openings of all time, and is actually just a tad more than the original movie earned in 2009. The last major animated title, Planes, is two months behind us, and Cloudy is going to have the family film space to itself until November. I doubt we'll talk about this movie again but if we do, it'll probably be to discuss the tidy little profit it made.
Max Braden: I get that the first movie was liked, achieving a lifetime box office multiplier of over four times its opening weekend, but with a $30 million opening it wasn't something I'd immediately expect to call for a sequel. With Cloudy 2's performance compared to the first movie and other September openings, I'd say producing the sequel turned out to be the right call.
Kim Hollis: I feel like it should have performed a bit better, but not significantly so. It should have a nice run for several weeks because it's a fun kid film in a time when there's just not much available for families, and with the smart budgeting, it's a definite win for the studio. It seemed like it might have been an unlikely candidate for a sequel, but it was a financially prudent choice.
David Mumpower: I agree with what others have touched upon with their comments. The original film tied off its storylines in a way that left a sequel superfluous. I believe all involved with the follow-up should take a bow for crafting a new story that is different yet still hearkens back to all of the warmth of the original. I actually liked Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs better than Up that year, a statement that is a stronger compliment to the former film than an insult to the Pixar title. As such, I have been conflicted about the release of the sequels, which I was worried would diminish my enjoyment of the original. I believe that is the opinion held by many, and that explains why there was not the ordinary sequel-spike on opening weekend. I was never expecting a huge breakout debut, so Cloudy 2 is right in line with my assumption. Due to the aforementioned cost control on this project and some eventual toy sales (Barry the Berry should be very popular), the sequel feels to me like a solid win for Sony.
Kim Hollis: Rush, the Formula One racing movie directed by Ron Howard, earned $10 million this weekend as it expanded to wide release. What do you think about this result?
Jason Barney: There doesn't seem to be that much interest here in the states, but that really doesn't matter, as this one really should do fairly well overseas. Any amount that is made in American theaters will obviously push the final numbers higher, but Oscar attention and box office potential are two different aspects of the film business. This may get some critical attention, and it appears it won't lose money, but it definitely has not broken out.
Brett Ballard-Beach: As pundits have noted all over the web, Formula One racing isn't the kind of sports event that those in the States rush (pun, no pun, I'm not sure) to see movies about. Even Cruise/Simpson/Bruckheimer/Scott with the heat of Top Gun, Beverly Hills Cop II, et. al could only get Days of Thunder to $83 million in 1990, still a genre best as serious auto racing films go. The critical acclaim can only carry this one so far, and even with good word-of-mouth, it will probably just make back its budget here. But as Jay and others have pointed out, the lion's share of the grosses will be coming from the rest of the globe. In case anyone is keeping tally: As Peter Morgan/Ron Howard collabs about famous rivalries go, it will be Hunt and Lauda by more than a nose (in the end) over Frost and Nixon.
Felix Quinonez: I don't think the result is anything to write home about but it also isn't surprising. Formula One just doesn't have a lot of draw in this country. And as exciting as the rivalry between the two racers might have been at the time, I really don't think that it's something most people are aware of. I think given its budget and overseas potential it should eventually make some money, but when you really think about it I don't think that's what Ron Howard was after. This is clearly meant to be Oscar bait. But even then this performance is a bit underwhelming and it certainly won't help its awards chances.
Bruce Hall: There's a certain indignity in a prestige movie like this getting beat out its first week of wide release by last week's Kidnap Movie and a cartoon about a place where it rains talking food. But the final analysis on Rush is eventually going to lead with the international numbers, especially in countries where people are aware that Formula One racing is a thing that exists. Here in America, Ron Howard is earning very positive reviews with his latest work, and that should give it at least some measure of staying power. Looks can be deceiving, and unlike Cloudy 2 or Prisoners, we will probably actually have reason to mention Rush again before the end of the year.
Max Braden: As recognizable as Hemsworth may be at this point, he's not at the level of Tom Cruise in Days of Thunder. I think the money earned this weekend may have even been more for Ron Howard's name recognition than anything else. A recent rivalry movie like The Social Network gives people a chance to see a condensed version of the behind-the-scenes action on a subject they're fairly familiar with on the surface, but for US audiences, the Hunt/Lauda rivalry is an obscure saga in an obscure sport from four decades ago. Consider that Miracle, the story of the US Olympic hockey team's victory over the Russians in 1980, earned almost twice this amount in its opening weekend. Reviews for the movie have been very good, and there's been a significant push in advertising for it (including an Xbox connection to the upcoming game Forza Motorsport 5), but I don't think it's a big surprise that the audience for a movie like this was going to be fairly narrow. As for its award prospects, I could imagine some people campaigning for it, but personally I was disappointed by the cinematography in that it relied too much on closeups and didn't take advantage of wider shots of a sport that can be very telegenic.
Kim Hollis: I think this is about as well as a movie about Formula One racing starring an up-and-coming Avenger could do. As far as what attracted people to the film, I'd agree with Max that it was likely more due to Howard than Hemsworth. I do think that with the outstanding reviews we are looking at a film that should have a bit of staying power, but even if it doesn't, I could still see it potentially getting some minor awards attention. With that said, I think that the competition will be fierce this year for Oscar, so unless you've got something like a Fruitvale Station, I don't really see something with small North American box office drawing a ton of attention.