Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
June 25, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Hey, it's the team that won and the guy who almost prevented the season from happening!

Kim Hollis: Monsters University, Pixar's prequel to the beloved Monsters, Inc., debuted this weekend with $82.4 million. What do you think of this result?

Jay Barney: I’m shocked at the size of the box office this weekend. We all knew that Monster’s University was going to be big, the question was how large. For the last couple of years Toy Story 3 has been the standard that all big animated films are compared to. There really was never any speculation if Monsters University would achieve those numbers, but Pixar’s level of success is very high. They can open new films like Brave and do well enough with them, or they can produce sequels like Cars 2 and still manage to make money. The opening of Monsters University goes far and away above these other entries.

$82 million is huge, especially compared with the other earners this year. It is larger than Oz the Great and Powerful’s $79 million. It is about equal to what Star Trek accomplished in its first few days. The only larger openings this year have been Iron Man 3, Fast & Furious 6, and Man of Steel. Pixar can take confidence that their product is up there with some of the most embraced movies of the year.

I think another reason this did so well was the relative black hole of kids movies so far on the schedule. Admittedly that is going to change very quickly with the slew of animated movies coming out soon, but so far there have not been many. It is nearly double The Croods $43 million. Epic had the benefit of Memorial Day weekend, and Monsters University blew that opening away. Escape from Planet Earth had a tiny opening. I have always thought there is a much larger market for kids films, and part of Monsters University's huge success may be attributed to this..

Matthew Huntley: I agree this is a very good figure, but with all due respect, Monsters University did have all the box-office stars aligned for it, namely the lack of family fare in the past month, so the bigger shock would have been if it didn't make this much money. Granted, Epic was out, but I think that movie was more or less "filler," if you will, and audiences were waiting for a familiar brand name and a reputable studio to give them something they know to be reliable and safe. Monsters University did just that and paid off handsomely.

Still, my concern is that Pixar is slowly becoming the studio that is losing its way. Their past few films haven't been as inventive or cutting edge as they used to be, and with sequels like Toy Story 3, Cars 2, and prequels like Monsters U, I'm afraid they're running out of ideas. "Reliable" and "safe" aren't words I would have used to describe Pixar a few years ago with Ratatouille and Up. Don't get me wrong - the studio is far from going off the deep end, but it's sort of in its sights.


Edwin Davies: I think it's quite interesting that the film has done so well in regards to Pixar's average, which has consistently - barring outliers like Ratatouille and Toy Story 3 - fallen in the $60-70 million range since the original Monsters, Inc debuted back in 2001. I find it interesting because their opening weekends have remained fairly constant, but haven't really kept up with inflation, which suggests that even if the grosses have remained the same, the ticket sales have actually fallen for Pixar films over the last decade, which seems especially odd considering that it coincides with their creative peak.

Monsters University, on the other hand, seems to have sold about as many tickets as the first film, suggesting that the return of the characters clearly was more appealing than being introduced to new ones in the likes of Brave, Up or WALL-E, especially since there's a strong possibility that a lot of adults might have seen the first film when they were kids and decided to go along with their own children, or just out of a sense of nostalgia, which is an incredibly powerful factor where the box office is concerned.

As Matthew said, though, I get the feeling that this was more due to a favorable calendar configuration than anything particularly special about the film. Reviews were certainly pretty good and there's obviously familiarity there, but I get the feeling that if people weren't clamoring for new family films - especially now that schools are out - then Monsters University might have opened as much as $10 million less than it did. That probably wouldn't matter much in the long run, though, since Pixar films are notoriously leggy, and even with the threat of Despicable Me 2 looming, I still think it'll wind up north of $250 million.

Max Braden: I think it's also interesting that a sequel this far from the original did so well. Although Toy Story 3 was released a decade after Toy Story 2, there were only four and five years between the initial sequels to Toy Story and Cars. Other animated franchises like Shrek and Ice Age have delivered sequels in three-year intervals. At 12 years past the first movie, the kids are all grown and you might expect Monsters to struggle to regain its audience. I guess this shows the staying power of the characters and setup among adults as well as the consistent appeal to kids. The Croods only opened to half this weekend number and has gone on to earn $570 million internationally (and is still playing domestically 14 weeks into release), so unless Monsters University has a Superman-sized second weekend, it should be looking at a long, profitable run.

David Mumpower: First of all, I never buy calendar configuration as a huge factor with regards to box office. A film is going to make what it's going to make. A movie's demand does not change because of the weekend it enters theaters. Since the inception of BOP, we have evaluated countless releases whose debut was discredited due to the period of release. All that has happened in the interim is that every monthly record has been shattered with June being the latest example with Man of Steel.

Monsters University is impressive to me for the reason Edwin referenced. One of the accepted laws of the movie industry is that ticket sales are constantly in decline per capita. This has been a gradual erosion since the 1940s (!). If a 2013 title matches its 2001 predecessor with regards to ticket sales, that is a significant feat. I believe this performance is counterbalanced by the fact that it is the second Pixar franchise to garner a sequel. As a rule, we know that second films open better than the original title. Toy Story 2 set a Thanksgiving week record with its release in 1999. And as chronicled above, Toy Story 3 debuted light years beyond any other Pixar title. Monsters University should have opened better.

The debate is how much is enough. With Brave and Cars 2, the most recent Pixar releases, slotting in the $66 million range, anything above $75 million would have been great in my estimation. Monsters University managed a 24% improvement from those titles as well as a $16 million growth in actual dollars. Disney has to be quite pleased by this turn of events, just as I know from visiting a Disney Store on Sunday that they are selling Monsters University toys out the wazoo. And that is always the bottom line for Disney with regards to child-friendly films.

Kim Hollis: This opening is actually right in line with what my expectations were. Yes, Pixar films have a fairly standard opening dollar amount, but I figured that since it was a sequel (and a well-enough reviewed one at that), it would get the bump of a few dollars. I have to believe that Disney is very pleased with the result, and assuming it holds up like all other non-Cars 2 Pixar films have, it should have a very fine box office run. The toys and other ancillary revenue are just gravy.

What Monsters University really does have going for it is the fact that it's extremely kid-friendly (more so than most any of their films other than Cars/Cars 2) but in a way that doesn't dumb it down for adults. This is the kind of movie that people are going to be happy to bring their children to see.