Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
June 19, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jay Barney: Great question. While each film is different, I believe that the "true" cost of a film is generally almost twice that of the production budget. I am not sure how this breaks down with Superman. There are probably several markers of success for Warner Brothers.
The first measure of success has to be the opening weekend, and by all accounts the executives have to be drunk with glee at this point. With $128 million in the bank by Sunday night, this film has a shot of surpassing the $225 million number somewhere in week two. The next total they are looking at has to be the numbers of the last attempt to do Superman. This opening ensures the total of the last will be left, way, way behind, so that is another victory for the studio. Domestically, Man of Steel should pass $300 million by the end of its run, probably well above that number. It will have the benefit of the July 4th weekend contributing to a solid hold in the coming weeks, which will push the number higher.
It is amazing how much the box office has changed in the last few years. Where many scoffed at the idea of a film relying on overseas numbers (and some did scoff by the way), studios are now banking on a substantial overseas reception for their movies. The international numbers for Man of Steel should be more than the domestic box office, but what that will be, I am not sure.
Bruce Hall: I'm not sure it's even certain that the success of Man of Steel guarantees a Justice League film. Plus, we don't know enough about Warner Bros' strategy. Are they going to methodically introduce the characters over a number of years via separate films set in the same universe, as happened with Marvel's characters? If so, we're a long way off from the Justice League. David Goyer is on record saying that the just concluded incarnation of Batman takes place in its own reality. If that's true, we're at least going to have to be introduced to a new Batman before this idea goes anywhere. And Green Lantern is still up for a rumored reboot. And we just got through meeting Superman again for the first time. As tempting as it might be to jump on the bandwagon and try to carbon copy The Avengers now, it's hard to see this not being a methodical unveiling in much the same mold. I just don't see how you leave all that money on the table.
I don't know what their plans are, but if Man of Steel's success guarantees anything, it's green lights all down the pipeline for movies based on DC Comics. The only thing that concerns me about this is that DC's stable of heroes and villains isn't quite as robust as Marvel's. With a grittier, more conflicted Superman seeming to be a hit with people, I'm actually pretty curious to see what new interpretations of other familiar characters. I can't guarantee they'll be fun to watch, but they'll probably be fun to talk about.
Shalimar Sahota: I don't think it's a decision that is based solely on how much money Man of Steel makes (or it shouldn't be). Sure, money is a factor, but it isn't the only one. Marvel Studios and Kevin Feige built up to an Avengers film brilliantly from the release of Iron Man, dropping little hints in each film released along the way. At the moment a Justice League film still comes across as difficult to comprehend, because the suits at Warner Bros just haven't really got their act together yet. With the recent crop of DC Comics films, there hasn't really been any crossover activity going on and those films didn't go into production with the goal of making a Justice League film in the future. Also, who's to say that Warner's Justice League movie will even have any connection to Snyder's Man of Steel? Would it even star Cavill? I feel it'll be stuck in development hell for a long time yet.
Brett Ballard-Beach: This is above and beyond my pay grade level, so I will keep my comments brief. If the end game is an Avengers-level parallel on the DC side, then they are still a long ways off from making that happen. I have no stake in JLA on any level, but I do want to ask, though: considering the brooding revamps of the Superman and Batman flagships, is there any reason to think that a JLA movie would be any fun at all? I am not suggesting they simply ape what Joss Whedon succeeded in doing, but I think such a movie from Snyder, Nolan, or someone with their inclincations would be as misguided as bringing in Joel Schumacher.
Max Braden: Superman Returns just barely eked out $200 million domestically. I'd have been a little nervous about greenlighting a Superman reboot even five plus years later, but it looks like that turned out to be the right decision. I'd like to see at least $300 million, but I'm not sure the final number matters at all right now. As long as it isn't a complete flop next week, I'd say Man of Steel's opening makes it good to go for a Justice League movie. And that's not really because of Superman, that's because of The Avengers. With the success of The Avengers, I think just about any big ensemble superhero you put in front of an audience right now is going to get a boost. That's not to say that a Justice League movie is going to break records, but I think the combination of the success of the Avengers, and positive opening for Superman means you strike while the iron's hot.
Tim Briody: I don't think any total for Man of Steel will cause a Justice League movie to happen. Batman is the only truly established franchise and Nolan's not going to make another one even if you back up the world's largest money truck to his house. There was Green Lantern movie met with a collective shrug. You would also have to establish at least one of Wonder Woman, The Flash or Aquaman before even attempting to go The Avengers route, and there's a reason Aquaman is a comic book punchline. Avengers was lightning in a bottle. Ain't gonna happen again.
Kim Hollis: I think it's very interesting that everyone is almost collectively shrugging off the notion of a Justice League movie in the near future. While I agree with every bit of reasoning stated above about why it's a terrible idea, I have absolutely no faith that the studio will be that forward-thinking. We're already at the point where they're ready to make a bad decision and dive right on in based on the fact that they figure people like Batman and Superman. I think the decision is going to be made rashly and that after Man of Steel's final dollars come in, there will be regret.
David Mumpower: Brett has touched on the key aspect of this discussion, at least for me. Ignoring the main question for a moment, do we as consumers even want a Justice League movie? In the past, I have referenced a comment from Guillermo del Toro regarding superhero films. He believes that while Christopher Nolan's work with Batman has been terrific, the trend caused in the wake of The Dark Knight is problematic. Everything has to be gritty now for some reason, and Man of Steel follows that playbook.
The joy of The Avengers, the aspect that is inimitable, is that Joss Whedon does the impossible in that film (which Browncoats realize makes him mighty). He crafts an action film imbibed with the perfect mix of seriousness and humor. Man of Steel is the polar opposite of The Avengers. Cracking a smile in that movie is the quickest way to be killed on camera. So before Warner Bros. gets carried away with fantasies about Daffy Duck-sized piles of gold (that cartoon is their property after all), they should take heed. Their only two attempts at whimsy thus far are Green Lantern and Jonah Hex, both of which fail mightily in their tries at combining laughter with dramatic tension.
People have correctly pointed out that there should be a build-up for a potential tentpole like that but since Warner Bros. struggles to get Superman and Batman movies right, why should we have any faith in them with regards to The Flash or Wonder Woman? And Aquaman is a punchline so it won't be that character. With Green Arrow presumably off the table due to the Arrow television series, I have trouble constructing a believable scenario for a one-off movie. The Martian Manhunter would make the most sense to me but, well, remember John Carter last year?
The more I contemplate the Justice League as a project, the more I believe that a World's Finest movie with Batman and Superman is a better option. They could plug in a couple of other DC characters via Trojan Horses the same way that Hawkeye and Black Widow were dropped into Captain America and Thor. I believe that is the most plausible solution available right now.
With regards to the finances involved, I mentioned yesterday that Man of Steel is being released as a loss leader for Warner Bros. They want to get to Justice League so badly that they can taste it. Watching The Avengers earn $1.5 billion crystallized their desire for such a franchise. Whatever revenue accrued by Man of Steel will be used to justify that decision but the film will still happen at some point either way. After all, it almost did once before recently with The Lone Ranger as Batman. If you want guesstimate numbers, I believe $300 million domestically and $750 million worldwide are the lines of demarcation that establish Man of Steel as a viable global sensation.