Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
June 12, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: If you do the numbers, The Purge is probably the biggest success of the year, by far. Something like Iron Man 3 cost about $200 million to make, but there are a lot of other costs involved. The true numbers are many millions more with advertising costs, etc. Iron Man 3 has pulled in $1.2 billion worldwide, which is great, but what film wouldn’t want what The Purge has accomplished? A $3 million investment, with whatever the marketing costs, pulling in around $35 million in its first three days? The holds probably aren’t going to be great, but at this point The Purge is a HUGE success.
I think it is safe to crown Universal the king of the 2013 box office at this point. They didn’t need to put much effort into the re-release of Jurassic Park 3D, and they made a lot of money on that. They cast Tom Cruise in Oblivion and despite its weakness in the U.S. it has made $275 million globally. Identity Thief was an early hit for them this year. We all know what Fast and Furious 6 has accomplished. The $3 million they put into this project is going to pay for itself in droves. They still have Despicable Me 2 over the coveted July 4th frame. It almost doesn’t matter what happens with RIPD, 2 Guns, or Kick-Ass 2. Every project thus far has been successful.
Edwin Davies: It has to rank as one of the biggest, both in terms of investment to profit (thanks to the midnight screenings it had covered its production costs before any Friday screenings had even occurred) and in terms of the surprise factor. There have been plenty of surprises at the box office this year, but they've mainly been cases of a film that people expected to do well doing slightly better than expected (see: Iron Man 3) or, more often, films under-performing horribly (A Good Day to Die Hard, After Earth, Gangster Squad, The Host...) so to see a film blow away expectations so spectacularly, earning almost double what most people were predicting, is huge news. That the film is already seeing pure, unadulterated profit after three days is a truly rare thing indeed.
Max Braden: I still think The Great Gatsby holds the top spot. A genre film like The Purge can break out every now and then, but still, this was unexpected. For the opening weekend, I might put it between Gatsby and Iron Man 3. If the long term box office doesn't hold, it will be more and more a flash in the pan.
Tim Briody: I'm pretty sure it's locked up the box office relative to budget championship for the year, and if it doesn't completely fall through the floor after this weekend, stands to make $100 million and be one of the year's bigger stories.
David Mumpower: I was prepared to describe it as the biggest hit of the year but Max's argument gave me pause. The Purge is unquestionably the best performer relative to financial outlay, which is the most important aspect when evaluating box office. Having acknowledged that, we witnessed a relatively similar phenomenon with Paranormal Activity. That film's triumph lessens the impact of The Purge for me, at least somewhat. The Great Gatsby was almost wholly dismissed prior to its release. No theatrical adaptation of that particular novel should earn $150 million domestically. After careful consideration, I still side with The Purge because The Great Gatsby required a $100+ million financial outlay. It *should* do that sort of box office in theory. This particular title simply happened to be a terrible gamble that paid off.
Kim Hollis: I agree that it's going to be one of the big success stories of the year. Relative to pure profit it's going to be right up there as possibly the biggest. It doesn't even matter if it doesn't hold up this weekend (and let's face it. Horror movies just don't do that). The Purge has exceeded expectations by so much that almost everything is gravy from here on out.
Kim Hollis: If you google "Internship," you will discover that it earned $17.3 million this weekend. What are your thoughts on this result? Also, are Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson long in the tooth or simply in need of better projects?
Jason Barney: The Internship is hardly a story at all. The tracking was never great for this one. There wasn’t any energy in the trailers. Even fans of the actors involved were uninterested. The $58 million price tag is hefty compared to the success of the $3 million The Purge. This fourth place opening is much worse considering it was supposed to be counter programming against the other action/sci-fi options in the top 10. It didn’t do well against Now You See Me which has been out for a week. Nor did it do well against Fast and Furious in its third weekend. When all is said and done, the only notable thing about this film will be that it was a disappointment. A fourth place opening against the early summer flicks means it probably won’t hold well and will be out of the top 10 very soon.
I have never really been much of a Vince Vaughn fan, and there is a chance we saw the peak of his career years ago. Owen Wilson was great in Midnight In Paris, so he has a strong project in his resume not too long ago. Careers go up and down; both men probably have hits and misses to come.
Brett Ballard-Beach: Setting aside the fact that this might have played more successfully in 2006, when the duo were coming off Wedding Crashers, you have a younger demo (since the film is PG-13) who may not find them terribly worthwhile, and an older demo who (rightfully) wondered why Vaughn and Wilson would straitjacket themselves with a rating that ensured that this would in no way be as raunchy as WC (or Old School ,et al). That leaves diehard fans of the pair (including my wife, who saw it and loved it) to show up or not. This is the End has the buzz and the crudity and is set to sweep in in 5, 4, 3, 2 . . .
Edwin Davies: This is about what I expected given that no one seemed to have expressed any interest in it prior to release (what's the opposite of buzz? A quiet hum? If so, that's what The Internship had) and that both Vaughn and Wilson are several years past the point at which they could really open a movie that wasn't dependent on a big concept to sell it (Four Christmases, Marley and Me) or involved voiceover (The Cars movies). Both clearly peaked at height of the Frat Pack's popularity in the mid-'00s, and while I think both still have the potential to be good in the right film, their involvement is no longer a draw for people who aren't diehard fans. I think they've used up most of the goodwill people had for them at this point. The difference between the two is that Wilson still has his friendship with Wes Anderson and his indie cred from Midnight in Paris to fall back on, whereas Vaughn has remained firmly wedded to the persona that made him a star. That might come in vogue again in the future, or he might be able to transition into supporting roles that don't require him to carry the movie as he gets older, but I think the days when he could headline a movie by being an abrasive manchild are probably well and truly over at this point.
Max Braden: It seems like everyone came arrived at the same thought independently: why was this movie that would have made more sense in 2005 released eight years later? It instantly looks dated. Come to think of it, Owen Wilson looks dated too. I would have paired Vaughn with Kevin James. Even then, the trailer showed nothing about the story that would have drawn an audience. It looked like an undeveloped skit: Two middle-aged guys go for an internship... and?
David Mumpower: While I think the result borders on best case scenario given the matters addressed above, here is my question. Is there a worse recent concept for a comedy than a couple of guys in their mid-40s becoming interns? I mean, if you're going to do this bit right, at least take it to the logical extreme a la Grumpy Old Men and My Fellow Americans. I get the vibe that there was a lingering feeling that Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn could still sell in the right comedy. The people holding this position were promptly disabused of the notion over the weekend. Anyone who was still hoping for Wedding Crashers 2 just saw their dream die.
Reagen Sulewski: I would actually say it bodes well for Vaughn and Wilson that they got a toothless looking comedy like this to even $17 million. We are not that far removed from The Dilemma and Hall Pass. One thing you can say for the ads for this - they did at least have a clear idea of what the movie was about, and weren't actively off-putting, to compare to those movies respectively. But a bigger problem is that I don't think anyone's looking to mid- 40s guys for ideas of how to "party down", and the overgrown frat boy act is getting a little stale. They're both going to have to reinvent themselves to some degree if they want to stay relevant.
Kim Hollis: I don't really think the opening is disappointment. I'm actually with Reagen - that it managed $17 million on a lackluster premise and stars who are far less bankable than they once were is pretty impressive to me. I really like both of these guys (in fact I'd go so far as to call myself a big Wilson fan), so I was just hoping beyond hope that the movie was actually better than it appeared in previews. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to have been the case. I tend to agree that Vaughn may have more trouble finding relevance, while Wilson is diverse enough that he'll take the odd indie film and feel right at home.