Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
April 2, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Bruce Hall: Well, don't think anyone's laughing about those reshoots anymore. I doubt adding more Channing Tatum improved the narrative much, and maybe someone can tell me whether or not the 3D conversion accomplished anything more than padding the gross. But hey, it worked out pretty well and instead of having to open in the summer amidst movies like The Dark Knight Rises and The Unnecessary but Generally Acceptable Spider-Man, they get to open against Tyler Perry's Same Old Story. As a result, Paramount was confident enough to officially announce the sequel before the weekend was over, and they get to do the victory lap of TV spots where the giant "#1" swoops through clips from the film. Whether or not this was all part of the plan, a dollar's a dollar. And for the sequel to such a widely disliked film to come so close to the original's opening, that's just a bonus.
Edwin Davies: I view this as a best case scenario result for the film considering that no one seemed to be asking for it and delaying it by almost a year, in a way which was pretty high-profile at that, should have screamed "BOMB!" to anyone paying attention. Having said that, it's only a best case scenario by comparison, it's not an objectively great result. The difference in gross between the two films is pretty small but inflation and 3D-gouging suggests that it probably sold significantly fewer tickets, which in turn suggests that demand was not all that great and probably isn't going to improve in the next few weeks. It's not a disaster by any stretch of the imagination, but it's going to shoot under Rise of Cobra's already mediocre final tally by at least $10 million, which makes this seem more like a successful attempt to salvage a complete wreck than a successful relaunch for the franchise. Now, of course, we get to speculate on which members of the cast will be retained for the sequel, and how many will join the cast of the first film in whatever magical, better land they were sent to. I'm guessing The Rock and maybe Bruce Willis if he doesn't become so disgusted with his career choices that he goes off to live in the wild for a few years.
Shalimar Sahota: Good. The first film was a passable family action flick, but with the majority of the cast not returning for a sequel (as well as a different director and writers), that kind of told me more than I needed to know. I stayed away and assumed others would too. Also, by going ahead with a sequel to a film that wasn't all well received in the first place, I guess Paramount weren't really expecting to top the opening of Rise of the Cobra. So, even if it is a little less than the original, a $40 million+ opening still comes across as a good result. Having the likes of Lee Byung-Hun (he's one cool dude) and Elodie Yung, as well as 3D, means that the film will likely earn more overseas than in the US.
Jason Barney: This is an okay opening, and I am a supporter of the franchise, but I have to wonder how much the film gained by moving the release date nine months. I want to be clear, because the poor quality of these films are much worse than they need to be, that I grew up watching the old cartoons and playing with the toys. When the original came out in 2009 I thought it looked so silly that I refused to see it in the theater. I waited until it came out and rented it, and I had pretty low expectations. The first "Joe" is the definition of stupid action. So based on my youth, I want these films to succeed, but based on the paths they have chosen to take, I don't particularly care to spend my money or time on the product. I will see the second one, when it comes out of DVD, but it appears it is worse than the first.
What did they gain by delaying the film from its summer release date? I know some of the other writers were speculating about a possible bomb, but I have to believe this film would have done better as a summer blockbuster that on Easter weekend. In fact, if memory serves, this was originally slated for a weekend around July 4th, which would have meant an elevated opening for those few days. So I am not sure what they gained by releasing now. Character changes? More continuity for future films? I don't think they grabbed much more money.
In the end this film will make slightly more than the original did against its budget. If the $130 million figure is accurate, it should do that and more stateside. Where the cash will flow in is from the international markets. I was shocked to see that the foreign gross has already surpassed the domestic total. Paramount will have a money maker on its hands based on this sort of overseas reaction.
It also must be stated, that regardless of the quality of this film, the Rock's status as an actor is quickly rising. Critics can shrug off the dollars all they want, but the string this guy is putting together has brought in some serious coin. With the summer schedule ahead of him, his star is just going to rise.
Felix Quinonez Jr.: I think this is a pretty good opening. I generally expect sequels to open bigger than their predecessors but I think it's a different scenario in this case. The first GI Joe was received really badly. Even though Retaliation is a sequel it can also be described as a reboot. I think this movie had a lot going against it due to the bad taste the first movie left so to essentially match the first movie's opening weekend in four days is not bad at all. Also it seems that this is receiving better word-of-mouth so I think it will hold better than the first one and it will at least get close to matching its total gross. And judging from its overseas start it should do even better worldwide.
Max Braden: $40 million seems like a decent start, but this is with the addition of Johnson and Bruce Willis. I think Johnson was responsible for adding a boost to Fast Five's opening. If he had any effect on the sequel to GI Joe, imagine what it would have looked like without him. I don't see how this movie's going to get anywhere near the previous total gross.
David Mumpower: I for one am blown away by this result. The first G.I. Joe movie, The Rise of Cobra, earned $61.1 million over its first four days. The sequel has retained $51.0 million or 83% of that audience. I am forced to wonder how many people had just enough time to forget how heinous the original was. I too enjoyed G.I. Joe as a child but The Rise of Cobra pretty much destroyed any fond remembrances I had nurtured until then. And there was little about the sequel that struck me as enticing. Instead, a clever decision was made to show The Rock, far and away the most popular cast member, playing a videogame. I have no idea if that sequence is actually included in the film. What I say with confidence is that it doubled the opening weekend of G.I. Joe-er.
Kim Hollis: I have to agree that this opening seems to be best-case scenario for the studio. The first movie is so poorly remembered that the franchise had very little traction. Indeed, The Rock and Bruce Willis probably are responsible for the fact that it did as well as it has so far. I don't really believe that the delay hurt or helped it. I think its audience was pretty close to the same whether it was released during the last weekend of March or in mid-July.