Survivor: Caramoan Power Rankings
Episode 8
By Ben Willoughby
April 3, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
1. Malcolm
I’ve put Malcolm at #1 for two reasons – he is the person most likely to change the direction of this game, and he is also the person most likely to get voted off because of it. At the moment, his plan is to break out of the “favorites” with a bromance alliance of four – him, Reynold, Eddie and Erik. We know Reynold is on board, presumably Eddie will join him, but we don’t know what Erik is thinking.
This bromance alliance faces two big challenges come the merge. How can it grow beyond four votes, and how does it ensure that none of its members are targeted in the first vote?
Assuming Malcolm can bring in Erik, I can see a path forward to six votes – as he could also connect with Corinne, who would then bring in Michael. I don’t see a path to seven – Phillip would not obviously be on board, Andrea, Dawn, and Cochran seem locked in with Phillip and wouldn’t have much to gain from joining a muscle alliance on an immunity tear. Brenda too, I guess. Sherri does not want to work with Eddie or Reynold (or vice versa).
So even if everything goes according to Malcolm’s plan, that’s six votes out of 12, which means to Probst’s ultimate disappointment the bromance alliance won’t have a clear majority at Tribal Council. This means that they either have to engineer the vote to eliminate Sherri, the only “fan” outside their alliance, which would give them six against five at the next vote, or they engineer a blindside where Malcolm, Erik and Corinne say they are on board with voting off whoever Phillip wants to vote off, vote for whoever they want instead, and use a hidden immunity idol so that instead of the expected 6-6 tie, it’s a 6-0 walkover.
So there’s definitely a way for Malcolm to form a new alliance, with him at the center. And there are a lot of ways for his plans to fail completely.
2. Phillip
Game of Thrones – or more correctly, HWDYK’s series of Game of Thrones quizzes – reminded me over the weekend of two things. “Power is power” and “Power resides where men believe it resides. It's a trick, a shadow on the wall.” We all know that everyone on Phillip’s tribe – even those he’s been prepared to vote off – have been focused on keeping Phillip happy. As examples, we’ve had Cochran submitting to arm-wrestling challenges and Dawn immediately running to Phillip to tattle-tale on Julia. Even poor gameplay – like Phillip’s exclusion of Corinne from his conversation with Dawn and Cochran – led only to Corinne talking a silent walk down to the beach to calm down.
So while Phillip’s power is just a shadow on the wall that will disappear the moment someone shines a light at it, for now, his power is power. Everyone who wants to work with him will keep “making sure Phillip’s happy” a priority.
3. Erik
Erik doesn’t know it yet, but he has a big choice ahead of him – should he “stay loyal” to the “favorites”, or make a move when he’s approached by Malcolm? Malcolm’s big plans for a new alliance reply on Erik more than anyone else – Eddie and Reynold have no other option and Corinne is itching to engineer a move against Phillip. Erik is the only one who has a difficult choice.
We know that Erik isn’t comfortable with Phillip’s domineering “obey me and appease me” style of play, but we also know that he thinks Reynold is a total “used car dealer”. I’m not convinced he has the risk appetite to break out, or the strong chin to take the “you betrayed us, treacherous traitor” outpourings that would be sure to follow. I’m not even sure it’s in his interests to join an alliance with immunity monsters like Reynold and Malcolm, especially since they would both backstab him in a second. He may like his chances in an alliance of feebs like Dawn, Cochran and Phillip, where he can go on an immunity tear towards the end of the game.
Anyway, I think Erik has more control over the game’s future direction now than at any other time. Clueless about it as he seems to be, he’s at #3 this week. It’ll be as high as he ever gets.
4. Cochran
Cochran has a lot of soft power in this game, which is just as well for Cochran because any “offer you don’t refuse” ultimatum he gave would be utterly unconvincing. But Cochran’s been the one we have seen suggesting the boots and talking Phillip down from his crazy schemes. He’s kept his priority on building strong relationships with each person in the game, and no one has talked about voting him out. We are getting a “strategy” edit from him that we’re not seeing from any of the other “favorites”, whose interview subjects are mostly limited to how awesome they are (Phillip) and how trying Phillip is (everyone not named Phillip). This next episode, I expect his focus will be on bringing the “favorites” alliance back together.
5. Dawn
Even Dawn is getting frustrated with Phillip, but that doesn’t mean her strategy will change. How would she gain from a different alliance?
6. Andrea
We haven’t seen much of Andrea since the switch, but expect her to start wheeling and dealing after the merge. Despite that, I don’t see her changing her strategy much. She might bring someone in closer, like Brenda or Sherri, but has everything to lose from completely switching up her alliance.
7. Corinne
Corinne’s votes have proven her to be a loyal “favorite”, but her behavior hasn’t. If there’s a push against Phillip early in the merge, she will certainly be part of it. However, I think it’s more likely – and the editing of the story arc strongly suggests – that Phillip will lead a push against Corinne, and the others who are in his alliance would be silly to pass up the opportunity.
8. Brenda
We haven’t seen Brenda do much either, except give flirtatious support to her tribe. She’s in a similar position to Andrea.
9. Reynold
Reynold has an idol, but the dummy has told Malcolm already. From now, Malcolm should be suggesting to Reynold that they use his idol in the interests of their alliance, and convincing him that it’s a big move that could win him the game.
10. Sherri
Sherri looks to be casting in her lot completely with the “favorites”. She is in a low position at the moment, but if she can succeed in outlasting Eddie, Reynold and Mike, then she’s in a good position to be the “available vote” when the “favorites” alliance inevitably fractures.
11. Mike
Probably no-one will be happier with a merge than Mike, who will feel he’s off the chopping block at last. It won’t make much difference, though. With no allies, he will have to stick close to Corinne and see where that takes him.
12. Eddie
Eddie is being strung along by a better player, who is in turn being strung along by a better player. That’s why he’s #12. There’s no one more deserving.
Tune in tonight, because hopefully something may change from what we’ve seen so far this season.