Top Chef Power Rankings
By David Mumpower
February 13, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
1) Brooke: The Los Angeles chef has won six challenges this season, the most of any single player. Brooke is also streaking at the right time, emerging victorious in each of the last two Elimination challenges. Her disastrous fried chicken experience caused Brooke to re-focus on each meal. The end result has been that the most consistent player this season has separated herself from the pack. If Brooke does manage to win Top Chef, she will become only the second woman ever to do so. She will also be the rare player whose talent stands out for most of the season. I’ve had Brooke in either first or second place in the power rankings for most of this season. She is confident, she is creative and she is calculated. Independent of what happens next, Brooke is the best player on Top Chef this season.
2) Sheldon: Just as Brooke has won the last two elimination challenges, Sheldon has been chosen the winner of consecutive Quickfire battles. Individually, Sheldon has won four challenges this season while also sharing two others as a team player the first week and with Bart as a duo. Sheldon is professional, kind-natured and respected. His island flavors are also novel for a player at this stage of Top Chef, an advantage that could elevate him above his peers at the end of the game.
The problem Sheldon faces is that he is not as consistent as the other two players. There have been four times this season when he crafted a dish so questionable in quality that he was not only in the bottom group but also in serious danger of being the odd player out. I keep ranking him above Josh because Sheldon keeps winning Quickfire heats. Josh has only one challenge this entire season. Sheldon’s ceiling is clearly higher; conversely, his floor is undeniably lower.
With a single elimination challenge remaining, I honestly have no idea which of these players is most likely to go home. I eventually decided that Brooke has about a 20% chance, Sheldon a 35% chance and Josh a 45% chance. The judges seem to like Sheldon more. He needs to stop being such a danger to himself, though. Chum salmon was a poor choice last week and the freezer ingredient paralysis the previous week was alarming as well. Sheldon needs to get out of his head and rely on his unmistakable natural skill.
3) Josh: The advantage that the Oklahoman has over his competitors is simple. Josh is so worried about his wife and the impending birth of his first child that he isn’t stressing over Top Chef results as much as his peers. While Brooke and Sheldon obviously miss their families, they are so laser-focused on winning the game that they occasionally mess up badly. Brooke’s chicken was a fiasco from concept to execution three episodes ago. And I mentioned Sheldon’s recent issues above.
Compare these results to Josh’s recent track record. He has been in the top group in six out of the last eight challenges. Also, his presence in the bottom group in the most recent episode simply meant that he didn’t win. There was no reason to believe that he was in serious jeopardy from the comments made by the judges in their post-episode interviews/blogs. I am deeply conflicted regarding how to evaluate Josh as his directness reminds me a lot of Kevin Gillespie from season six, a player who would have won in a non-Voltaggio season. I expect him to go home tonight but his winning the entire competition also would not be a shock. This is one of those rare seasons on Top Chef wherein none of the remaining players is questionable in some way.
4) Kristen: From the wording at the end of Last Chance Kitchen last week, I have no idea how much more work Kristen has to do to re-enter Top Chef in time for the finale. The presumption would buy that one more victory would be enough. The lingering issue, however, is that the Save a Chef challenge could indicate that some sort of cook-off will occur prior to the final Last Chance Kitchen. Alternately, it could happen afterward or simultaneously. Either way, Kristen is at most two conquered opponents away from her rightful place in the Top Chef finale. I for one have been hoping for a Kristen/Brooke finale for about 10 episodes now. I would hate to be robbed of this matchup right at the end of the season.
5) CJ: CJ is the presumed winner of Save a Chef. Assuming this is true, my expectation is that he has to upset Kristen and tonight’s eliminated opponent, either simultaneously or sequentially. This is a tall feat for a tall man. I love CJ, but I want to be honest about the situation. CJ was voted out of Top Chef for cooking an unimaginative burger. Then, he was beaten by Kristen after an impressive run of victories in Last Chance Kitchen. He has been provided multiple opportunities to demonstrate that he is the best chef in this competition. As much as I like him personally, CJ has failed to demonstrate his superiority.
CJ’s return to the game would be an unwelcome turn of events in an otherwise satisfying season. I consider the odds of his winning and reaching the finale less than 20% so it’s probably a non-issue. Still, any poker player will tell you that a four to one underdog wins too often to be statistically irrelevant. Any former Top Chef player would gleefully accept a 20% chance of earning a spot in the series finale.