Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
January 23, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Mom and Dad always liked you best.

Kim Hollis: Arnold Schwarzenegger's expected triumphant return to theaters failed to materialize, as The Last Stand bombed with only $6.3 million in three days. What went wrong here?

Brett Ballard-Beach: To put a point on this bombing, this is his worst opening weekend in 27 years (since 1986's Raw Deal) and only three of his films in the 31 years beginning with Conan the Barbarian have opened with less (Raw Deal, Red Sonja, and… The Terminator, surprisingly enough). This is doubly surprising since 1) Lions Gate was behind this and they know about promoting their genre pictures and 2) the early reviews were surprisingly favorable with some ecstatic over what a great slam-bang return role it was for Mr. S.

I have heard some rumblings that in a post Expendables universe, why would action fans settle for just one star? This is twaddle (look at Jason Statham's career as a rebuke). But I do think that 10 years away from a leading protagonist role is a long time in Hollywood years, and the fan base needs something of a Terminator-style effort to draw them back to paying top dollar. In the next four weeks he'll be joined by his 1980s/Expendables cohorts Stallone (with Bullet to the Head) and Bruce Willis (the new Die Hard) with big action films. I don't think Willis should be worried since it's his signature franchise role, but I think that Stallone's numbers are going to be a lot closer to this.

Edwin Davies: Arnie's been away for too long, to the extent that most of the young men who used to be his core audience have grown up and moved on, and the next generation of young men know him primarily as an embarrassment of a politician who used to be in movies. The trailers were very kinetic and emphasized the humor nicely, but I don't think there was a particularly big section of the population who were ridiculously excited about seeing him back in action outside of something warm and familiar like The Terminator or in something like The Expendables where he was part of the broader ensemble. It probably didn't help that reaction to both Expendables movies was pretty muted, if not outright hostile, which might have followed him around in this instance and kept people away.

Jay Barney: Sadly, the title of this film may symbolize the last gasp of ‘80s and ‘90s action movie stars. I hate to write that, because I was the one excited they were making a remake of Red Dawn. Lionsgate is going to take a huge hit on this one. I saw one estimate that the budget was around $45 million. The Last Stand is not going to be a noteworthy return for Arnold at the box office. I’m surprised they did measure this out and try a summer release. Audiences are more accepting of this type of product in June or July then in January. Wish it had done better.

Bruce Hall: When Ah-nuld began his film career, nobody thought the funny looking muscle man with the unpronounceable name and thick as molasses accent would ever amount to anything. Of course they were wrong, and the Austrian Oak has been defying expectations ever since. But the irony is that after destroying the state of California just because he could, and then publicly disgracing his family for much the same reason, we appear to have come full circle.

Now, the craggy, saggy ex-Governator seems every bit the joke his opponents have always claimed. After all that’s happened, does “hubris” even adequately describe a 65-year-old man who still wants to be the Terminator? Arnold's draw was never his acting ability. It was his charisma, charm, strength and vitality.

Now that all those things are gone, there’s not much left to root for.

Felix Quinonez: The harsh truth is that pop culture moves fast and being away for 10 years is like an eternity. A lot of the people who grew up watching Arnold as the Terminator and his other iconic roles have moved on and the target audience is probably too young to remember or care about Arnold in the peak of his game. And let's face it, the biggest draw in this movie was the return of Arnold himself. And when that doesn't work the commercials didn't give much reason to see this movie.

Matthew Huntley: All these points are valid for why the movie bombed, but I saw The Last Stand last night and I'll go on the defense and say it's a fun, mindless action flick. I know that sounds trite, but that's my opinion, and I'm with Jay in that I wished it had performed better. With Arnie's gubernatorial and loyal-husband roles aside, he's still a pleasure to watch as an action hero. What can I say - the man has a gift for making even the most ridiculous and incongruous parts fit together, and I do think he has a fair acting ability. Our guts tell us we should laugh at him, but he makes it so we don't.

As to why the movie performed so poorly, I do think the lame title and banal plot played key roles, and yes, I think some consumers were so (understandably) turned off by Arnold and his extra-marital affairs they chose not to see this in protest. The same thing has happened to Mel Gibson, and even though I think moviegoers should separate celebrities' personal lives from their on-screen roles, it's not always easy.

Shalimar Sahota: I can only imagine that after having played Governor and having his “not-so-private life” become public, his name is now unfortunately working against him, turning some potential audiences off. Even I was initially turned off by this, but what's kept me interested is director Kim Jee-woon. A Bittersweet Life is phenomenal and The Good, The Bad, The Weird is insanely fun. The guy certainly knows how to do to large scale action. This is one that'll probably end up finding its target audience on DVD. I do also agree with Brett in regards to Bullet to the Head, which is offering the same old school thrills. Even if reviews are good I don't see that doing any better than this.

David Mumpower: Schwarzenegger’s return to acting wasn’t exactly due to the demand of the people, either. When he left the governorship of California, he was mired in scandal and facing a ton of media scrutiny. Even now, some people maintain that there is no such thing as bad publicity but this is no longer true in the social media era. At one point, Schwarzenegger was the number one draw in the world. Now, he is a dinosaur trying to recover from all the comet strikes. The weekend results are predictable in this regard.

The shocking stat here is this one. Schwarzenegger received 4,850,157 votes in California in 2006. Weekend estimates indicate 791,112 tickets were sold this weekend. At one point, he was a factor of six more popular in California than he is in the entirety of North America today.

Kim Hollis: Silver Linings Playbook expanded into wide release, earning $10.8 million from 2,523 locations. The movie has now earned $54.7 million, while capitalizing on Oscar buzz more than any other movie. What are your thoughts on this film's "opening weekend?" What do you think about its Academy Awards candidacy?

Edwin Davies: This is a very good expansion, but maybe they could have done it earlier and seen a splashier result. Last week would probably have been the best time since it would have taken advantage of the Oscar nominations, and it probably would have made for good counter-programming against Zero Dark Thirty's expansion. As it is, the film's been out for a while so a lot of people have had a chance to check it out, but the blanket advertising campaign and charm offensive that the cast have been on means that it's going to chug along nicely from now until Oscar night, where I think it has a good shot at Best Supporting Actor for De Niro and maybe a writing one for David O. Russell (neither of which I personally think the film deserves, seeing as it's just an okay movie). I don't see it winning over Lincoln, personally, but the feel-good factor is going to carry it past $100 million fairly easily.

Felix Quinonez: I think this is a great expansion for a movie that already had an impressive run in limited release (especially relative to its budget). I think waiting a week was a smart move because I think it would have been overshadowed by Zero Dark Thirty, which was basically the only movie that mattered last week. But this week the hype around ZDT has died down a bit and Silver Linings can generate some headlines of its own. I think this will definitely give it a big boost at the box office. As far as its Oscar hopes, I don't think it is much of a contender but this performance certainly won't hurt its chances.

Matthew Huntley: I enjoyed this movie too, but I don't think it's exactly award-worthy. It's touching and feel-goody, yes, and the acting is strong, but the movie as a whole isn't exactly inspired. For the record, I wouldn't be necessarily disappointed if it took home some statues, but in my opinion, there are other films that are more deserving.

With that said, I think the reason it's performing so well now is because the Weinstein marketing machine chose the right time to strike and have now made people who haven't seen the movie think they're missing something by not seeing it prior to Oscar night. That's sneaky but smart, and it's actually what the Weinstein Company specializes in.

Kim Hollis: I actually think the release and expansion of this film have been handled masterfully by the Weinsteins. Since they had a number of movies that they might consider pushing for the Academy Awards (including The Master, SLP and Django Unchained), they could afford to sit back and see how reception for Silver Linings Playbook played out over awards season and then expand it at exactly the right time, when people are wondering what the heck this movie is.

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see it capture some unexpected Oscars, including possibly Jennifer Lawrence and David O. Russell for director. I *think* that Jessica Chastain seems likeliest to win Best Actress based on the data we have so far, but the backlash against Zero Dark Thirty has been severe enough (and remember that Hollywood is hyper liberal) to the point that many voters may not wish to reward that film in any way. Lawrence makes for a good story, plus she’s got The Hunger Games to add to her wow-factor. I also think that if the Academy chose this as a year where they want to break away from their stodgy, old-fashioned choices, Silver Linings Playbook is the kind of movie that can benefit.