The Twelve Days of Box Office: Day Five
By David Mumpower
December 26, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Les Miserables debuted to $18.2 million worth of box office, much of it from consumers wondering, “Are they ever going to stop singing?” I recognize that the cinematic adaptation of the Hollywood classic has been largely well reviewed but I cannot ignore the glut of complaints on my social feeds regarding the sheer volume of singing. To these people, I ask, “What did you expect?” But I digress.
Let’s talk numbers. If you have ever read a previous iteration of Twelve Days of Box Office, you know that Christmas Day is ordinarily the best box office day of the season if not the year. If there is any question regarding this point, please consider that combined revenue for the box office top ten yesterday was $68.4 million. And it was a Tuesday.
Those of you who are good at math will notice that roughly a quarter of overall top ten revenue on Christmas was accrued by Les Miserables. This is great news for any movie, much less one with a $61 million production outlay. Before anyone gets too excited, please let me remind you of the rules for Christmas openers. The first day is always the best. Since consumers have ample free time to watch what they want, there is no cause to wait.
Consider a few recent examples. The primary new release on the holiday in 2011, War Horse, debuted to $7.5 million. Its final domestic take was $79.9 million; ergo, 9.4% of its total domestic revenue occurred on its first day. In 2009, several major titles entered the marketplace on Christmas Day. Marley & Me garnered 10% of its final gross that day, Bedtime Stories attained 9.6% and Valkyrie had the largest skew at 10.2%.
Before you argue that Les Miserables should perform differently because it is a major awards contender, let me remind you of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The Brad Pitt movie debuted to $11.9 million before finishing with a North American take of $127.5 million. Despite its leggy performance in February due to awards recognition, Benjamin Button still earned 9.3% of its money on opening day. This exemplifies how many consumers head to theaters on Christmas.
And we have now reached the annual moment wherein I remind you in the December 26th box office analysis of the most skewed Christmas Day release ever. Ali exploded into theaters with a fantastic (for 2001) $10.2 million. It earned only $48.0 million from that point forward. Yes, 17.6% of its entire domestic performance occurred on Christmas Day. This is a cautionary tale for every title in release.
Does this mean that Les Miserables is going to wither and die on the vine? Of course not. Every situation is different. In fact, if I did a sloppy calculation for the musical right now, a $180 million domestic run would seem reasonable. Is it? That depends entirely upon what happens next. How well the movie holds over the course of the week will determine exactly how big a hit it is. Given its frugal budget and opening day achievement, Les Miserables is already a bankable performer, though. Even in the Ali scenario, we would be talking about a $103 million movie, an epic result for the average musical.
Consider the above as we discuss the other two openers this week. They too will face the same box office calculus. Even so, The Weinstein Company should be thrilled with the $15 million debut of Django Unchained. The gloriously reviewed Civil War splatter-fest was slightly more expensive than Les Miserables at $83 million but it too is pointing in the direction of unqualified hit.
The most discussed film in the top ten finishes in third place. Yes, The Hobbit’s 11-day run as the number one movie in North America is over. Its yuletide take was $11.3 million, bringing the Peter Jackson opus to $168.3 million after a dozen days in theaters.
I will add a couple of notes about The Hobbit for perspective. Its calendar configuration matches that of the first Lord of the Rings movie, The Fellowship of the Ring. The 2001 release, however, debuted five days later than its 2012 successor. So one to one comparisons are a bit messy. Here is what I believe is important.
After a dozen days in theaters, The Fellowship of the Ring had earned $156.3 million. So The Hobbit is averaging a million dollars a day more than the first epic. It was pacing at $13 million a day in 2001 vs. $14 million a day in 2012. Suffice to say that ticket prices have gone up more than 7.7% over the past 11 years. The average ticket price in 2001 was $5.65. Nobody in North America has paid only $6.09 for a ticket to The Hobbit.
This is not the way that demand for this title should work. The sterling reputation of The Lord of the Rings trilogy should have meant a stellar run for its successor. Nine years of reverence from greasy fanboys combined with 3D/IMAX ticket pricing should create a box office juggernaut. We are not seeing that at all. Instead, The Hobbit is performing at what I consider to be relative worst case scenario pacing. A decrease in ticket sales from The Fellowship of the Ring was not a possibility I would have considered reasonable at the start of the month yet this is the reality of the daily numbers.
We will get into specifics over the next few days as we compare box office models. The Fellowship of the Ring’s first dozen days comprise the 12 of the final 13 days of the year, so The Hobbit could catch up a bit with holiday inflation. The how and why of it should be fascinating.
The last of three Christmas Day debuts is Parental Guidance. It is either the one that stars Bette Midler or the one that stars Barbra Streisand. I cannot be bothered to figure out which. These are two of the Five People I Will Meet in Hell. The fact that they keep getting cast in movies simply means that there are a couple of movies each year that I can skip for my sanity, ones that do not have the word “Twilight” in the title. Anyway, Parental Guidance debuts to $6.5 million, which Billy Crystal probably believes to be a really good number because it would have been back in the City Slickers days. We should be respectful of our elders so let’s allow him his delusion.
The final title in the top five yesterday was Jack Reacher. Tom Cruise as Jack Reacher is apparently nowhere near as interesting as Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt. After five days in theaters, Jack Reacher has managed only $23.3 million with $5.3 million of that coming on Christmas Day. Consider that Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol earned $16.5 million during its first five days in theaters…and it was an IMAX exclusive during this time frame. Jack Reacher has 3,352 exhibitions compared to 425 for MI4 yet the factor of eight more play dates is only creating 41% more box office revenue. That’s brutal.
I fear that timing has hurt Jack Reacher. Given the tragic events in Newtown, Connecticut, this is not the best time to be marketing a sharpshooter as a protagonist. Yes, Django Unchained is similarly violent but as a period piece, there is some leeway given that Jack Reacher does not get. Whatever the case, Jack Reacher was made for a frugal $60 million so it should be no worse than a box office draw by the time it exits theaters.
Sixth and seventh place go to This Is 40 and The Guilt Trip. Both of these titles obviously skew older than most Hollywood fare so they are still in wait and see mode. This Is 40 grossed $4.5 million on Christmas, thereby boosting its overall total to $17.5 million. The Guilt Trip only attained $2.5 million, giving it a too-modest running total of $11 million. Seth Rogen had to tolerate Barbra Streisand for months on end and all he gets out of it is a box office bomb.
The rest of the top ten on Christmas Day were all older releases. Lincoln grossed another $2.3 million to bring its domestic total to $120.3 million. This is one of Spielberg’s biggest non-action hits ever. The 3D re-release of Monsters, Inc. grossed $1.5 million to give it a running total of $8.5 million. This is probably not even 10% of what Monsters, Inc. toy sales were this week. I know that I bought a stuffed monster for a loved one. Finally, Skyfall grossed $1.4 million to push its Best. Bond. Ever. total to $282.5 million. I think that it will get close to $300 million but it will fall just short of the mark.
Tomorrow’s box office should decline some but not a lot as most consumers use vacation the day after Christmas as well. Check back in 24 hours for a more detailed examination of a couple of specific films.