Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
November 6, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Wreck-It Ralph opened to $49 million over the weekend. How did Disney accomplish their best non-Pixar animated opening in their storied history?
Edwin Davies: Setting aside the fact that they made a great film (I watched it on Friday and fell in love with it pretty much straight away), Disney also settled on a conceit that appealed to both kids and parents for wildly different reasons. The kids who grew up playing games in arcades and love all that 8-bit stuff will have the warm, fuzzy glow of nostalgia running through their vein at the sight of Q*bert et al running around, but they'll also now have families of their own who'll want to be entertained by a fun and kinetic adventure. Wreck-It Ralph ticks both boxes, since it has a clear-cut appeal for kids whilst having plenty of jokes in it for the parents/geeks. Creating a film that works for kids and which parents will be more than willing to sit through is a rare and wonderful feat that Disney pulled off very well. It also helps that the film got great reviews, which probably swayed parents who don't have that sense of familiarity with video games or were worried that it was going to be just fan service.
Max Braden: There was plenty of advertising and plenty of appeal to kids, as well as adults who've been around games since they were kids. Ralph is basically the blustery oaf that Shrek is, without the green skin, or to keep it in-house, Sully from Monsters, Inc. without the green fur.
Matthew Huntley: In my opinion, this was an easy sell and I'm not surprised the movie did so well over the weekend, including for all the reasons Edwin mentioned. At its core, Wreck-It-Ralph is a formula Disney animated movie and what I would label as "standard good" - it's bright, cheerful, funny at times, and packed head to toe with charm and all the usual characters and conflicts. It also has a Toy Story-esque quality by showing us a world where seemingly inanimate objects are actually alive and inhabit a world all their own. In other words, there's nothing terribly new or innovative about this movie, but it's more than reliable to become a moneymaker because it's familiar and feel-goody. Plus, it has the Disney brand name, which the studio has proven time and again (Tangled, Chicken Little) is all it needs to sell tickets. Another circumstance is that it's the beginning of the holiday movie-going season and that families have only had Hotel Transylvania for the past month. Wreck-It-Ralph offered them a new choice and I expect it will stick around for at least a couple months to become another $180 million (or more) hit.
Tim Briody: Max pretty much nailed it. Wreck-It Ralph cashes in on the 30-somethings that grew up on games from the ‘80s and ‘90s that now have kids. The kids wanted to see it because it's shiny and animated. The adults wanted to see it because they got all the video games references peppered into the movie. It's the best of both worlds and paid huge dividends.
Shalimar Sahota: Everyone else has already hit on how this managed to appeal to adults with a fondness for those retro games and kids that just wanted to enjoy a great animated film. I'll just say that the success here shows that you can indeed make a film about video games and have it turn into a hit. The reviews would also suggest that it's probably up there with Scott Pilgrim vs. the World as one of the best video game movies that isn't based on a video game.
Jason Barney: I think they may have the timing right. Part of it goes back to Puss In Boots last year, when that film opened to a decent $36 million, then repeated with another $33 million for weekend number #2. That kind of hold was crazy and unexpected, and I am not saying we are going to have anything like that this year, but I would expect Wreck-It Ralph to play really well over the next couple of weeks. The $49 million opening is actually quite strong in my opinion, as even though we have seen some of this material before, it is new to the big screen. The weekend multiplier here is very strong, and word-of-mouth is going to be excellent. I would expect this to do well because it will bring in younger viewers; parents want their kids to see something pleasant and entertaining while at the same time reaching back to their own childhoods. It is a real distinct possibility we are talking a gross of over $100 million by the end of weekend #2, so Disney is just smiling at this point.
Felix Quinonez: Although I haven't seen it yet, judging from the reviews, it seems like they made a great movie. But I think they just really knocked it out of the park with the advertising. The trailers look really great and I will definitely check it out in theaters. I think they just hit all the right notes with their ads. It definitely seems appealing to kids and it also looks nostalgic enough to rope in older audiences. And if that weren't enough I think the time of the release is also great.
Kim Hollis: I think the debut number is right in line with what I expected. It's a movie that has wide-ranging appeal to all ages, thanks to including classic video games, but also looked funny and sweet. I'm not quite as high on the film as others (it's cute, but I think it's lacking a spark), but I'm glad that people are loving Wreck-It Ralph. It's the kind of well-intended project that I like to see animation studios create.
David Mumpower: I mentioned with the release of Hotel Transylvania that some animated movies are won during the concept phase. Sony delivered a tremendous premise with that film. I maintain that Disney has one-upped them not only in terms of opening weekend but also quality and franchise potential. Wreck-It Ralph is a clever reinvention of the classic misfit outcast theme. It is also a masterful product in terms of targeting children with everything they love in life. Disney has perfected their craft with Wreck-It Ralph. It caters equally to boys and girls with an engrossing, gorgeous package.
Which franchise would you open?
Kim Hollis: In terms of franchise potential, how would you rank these titles with other upcoming or likely sequels: Despicable Me, How to Train Your Dragon and Wreck-It Ralph? What's your thought process behind your ranking?
Edwin Davies: 1. How To Train Your Dragon 2. Despicable Me 3. Wreck-It Ralph
I've ranked these based on how likely I think it is that the sequels will be good, and therefore how long the franchise will run in general. The way I see it, How To Train Your Dragon has a vast and unexplored world that has been fleshed out somewhat in a series of 10 books. Even if the films deviate from them - and they already have - that's still a wealth of material for them to draw upon which should sustain the series for years to come without resorting to just rehashing the same things over and over. There's plenty of room for development. Despicable Me strikes me as less likely to work in the same way since the first film was such a surprising success that whilst the second film will probably be huge, it also runs the risk of being a letdown creatively if they don't come up with a story as good as that of the first. The same could be true of Wreck-It Ralph, which I think ends so perfectly that any follow-ups would struggle to match it. However, I rank it lower than Despicable Me only because Despicable Me already is a franchise, whereas we don't know yet how Wreck-It Ralph's legacy is going to develop. If they do decide to make a follow-up, there's probably a lot more that they could do with Wreck-It Ralph in terms of what characters from old games they could introduce, but it seems a little bit limited since the characters can't leave the arcade in the way that the toys could leave Andy's house in the Toy Story sequels. It's a world that is a little too rigid to allow for much evolution.
Jason Barney: How To Train Your Dragon was one of the best children's movies ever, and it gave us one of the most charming fantasy characters of all time, Toothless. Much of that film remains easy to recall, as it was just so damn good. Any chance to bring my son back to that universe and see him smiling and laughing the way he did would be a real treat. Toothless was very much like a pet for many families. I would expect most parents would jump at the opportunity to have their kids entertained by him again.
Felix Quinonez: I haven't seen Wreck-It Ralph yet so I don't really know whether or not the story justifies a sequel or if it would just be a cash grab. As far as the other two go. I think How to Train Your Dragon seems more of a logical choice to extend into a franchise. There is already source material in the books and there just seems to be a lot to explore in that world. In my opinion Despicable was a great movie but I wonder if the sequel is really necessary. The previews already seem to put the minions in the forefront. That's because they were the breakout stars of the first one but it also seems to suggest that the protagonist's journey reached its natural conclusion. It also makes the sequel appear more a calculated move than a natural progression of the story.
Kim Hollis: I would agree that How to Train Your Dragon soars high above all others, followed by Despicable Me and then Wreck-It Ralph, at least as of now. How to Train Your Dragon is pretty much a perfect film as far as I'm concerned, and I'm sure there is a lot more that can be explored in that mythology. The minions make Despicable Me, but the first film had an incredibly sweet story and I anticipate more of the same. I would also note that with regards to the minions dominating the trailer for the sequel, they similarly were the focus for the original film, so I wouldn't read much into that.
David Mumpower: I believe that all three are well positioned as reliable franchise titles. I agree with the assessment that How to Train Your Dragon is the strongest of the bunch. Its shocking box office performance and the existence of several books full of fertile story possibilities assuredly identifies it as the best. Second is a much more interesting discussion. We celebrated the emergence of the Minions during the domestic run of Despicable Me. Their ubiquity in not only the movie's advertisements but also promotions for Best Buy and other corporate powerhouses create a substantial level of awareness. Anecdotally, when the trailer for Despicable Me 2 aired at our theater, the energy in the building spiked tangibly. Kids LOVE those things. So I view Wreck-It Ralph as the third place entrant yet I feel just as strongly that Disney debuted an instant franchise title that has everything kids want. Plus, this title has the advantage of the Disney marketing machine, the most powerful force in the industry. All three of these franchises are potent blockbusters.