Survivor: Philippines Power Rankings
Episode 8
By Ben Willoughby
November 6, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
This looks great for the rest of the season, because there are so many shifting parts – a situation that we haven’t had for several seasons at least. Normally we have the castaways from one tribe (maybe plus a flipper or two) eliminate the castaways from the other tribe, before turning on each other. This is much more interesting, but it makes power rankings very tough. I’ve rated the contestants by how much power they have in-game at the moment, and how many choices they have available to them. Some castaways have options, and others are pretty much locked in to a single strategy.
As Probst proclaimed last week, each of the remaining castaways has a one in ten shot at winning a million dollars and the title of Sole Survivor. We all know this is more of Probst’s lies, as some contestants obviously have much better chances than others. It’s not like the winner of Survivor is determined by rolling a D10.
So this week I’ve also included my estimate of their chances of winning, based on what we have seen so far. This is different from the power ranking, though there is obviously overlap.
Also, since we are now at the halfway point of the game, I thought we could look back at the initial “meet the cast” column I did before the beginning of the season to see how my predictions back then went.
1 Jeff Kent
Post-merge prediction: 20 in 100
(original prediction: 1 in 12)
The last two weeks, Jeff Kent has been successful at putting his alliance in the swing vote position. If the plan to get rid of the returnees succeeds, he should be able to position himself as the swing vote next time things get crazy. This is gives him more power than anyone in the game - you pick who gets voted off, everyone wants to be your friend and so long as you unequivocally state, “I’m voting with you guys,” no one is thinking of voting you out.
Pre-game, Jeff Kent said that his biggest challenge would be competing socially and dealing with the younger people he doesn’t like. His solution to this was a temporary alliance with Jonathan – who he thought was the only other person on Kalabaw who could carry on a conversation – that got rid of the younger players on the tribe. We’ll see how he goes about getting rid of younger people who are less likable, but more ruthless.
2 Malcolm
Post-merge prediction: 16 in 100
(original prediction: 1 in 12)
Malcolm has more options open to him than any other player. He has a secret immunity idol that no one outside his alliance knows about. He is well in with the Tandang tribe and is involved in the “who to vote out” discussions. He has a “secret” alliance with Denise and a secret “alliance” with Lisa. His success will come down to making the right decisions at the right time.
Malcolm has done a very good job of keeping up the positive aspects of his personality in the game and saving the smug, frustrated know-it-all bits for interview. Everyone likes him. I can see him winning whether he sticks with his original Denise alliance or ends in a final three with Tandangs.
3 Pete
Post-merge prediction: 12 in 100
(original prediction: 1 in 18)
Pete has been the leader of the dominant Tandang alliance since the beginning of the game. It’s the cult-like take-no-prisoners with-us-or-against-us strategy that Boston Rob and Coach led in recent seasons. However, I’ve only ranked him at #3 because with three members, the alliance is too small to dictate terms and it offers only one path to victory. At the final tribal council, the jury votes for the players they respect, and if there isn't anyone to respect, they vote for the people they like most (or hate least). There are already two people – RC and Michael - that will not vote for any of the Tandang alliance under any circumstance, and everyone outside the alliance can name someone they like better than Pete, Abi and Artis. For anyone in this alliance to win, all three of them have to make it to the final Tribal Council and then fight over which of them is the least detestable.
In his pre-game interview, Pete said that he is passive-aggressive and that his plan was to cause chaos. There hasn't been much need for that so far, but he’s going to have to step up his game in the coming weeks.
4 Abi
Post-merge prediction: 5 in 100
(original prediction: 1 in 36)
Remember when Malcolm said that he wanted to play a sociopathic game? Abi is giving him a master class. She doesn’t do anything she doesn’t want to, she doesn’t pretend to care but when it’s the right time she steps up and competes. A couple of weeks ago, I said that if Abi did nothing for the next few episodes, I would have to conclude she is playing a smart game. It’s now a few episodes later, and Abi hasn’t done anything that we’ve seen, except bring it in an immunity challenge to keep the pressure on RC. She’s playing a smart game – if you are looking only at the short-term.
Longer term, I still think she’s delusional. In her pre-game interview, she claimed that people will be inspired by her. Inspired to root against her, maybe. Does anyone watching the show actually like Abi? I think the only person I’ve read with anything positive to say about her is me.
And that’s why I don’t see much of an end-game for Abi. It’s clear she wants Pete to take the hits for putting everyone else on the jury. But Survivors that use the under-the-radar strategy depend on their nice-ness to win votes at the final Tribal Council. A lot of Survivor winners have used this strategy – Natalie in the Samoa season, Amber in All-Stars, going all the way back to Tina in the Australian Outback season. But they were all nice people. We haven’t seen Abi be nice to anyone.
5 Denise
Post-merge prediction: 12 in 100
(original prediction: 1 in 18)
I’m so pleased that Denise was able to overcome the “older women get voted out early” hurdle and survive through the demise of Matsing. She’s been a great competitor in challenges, she has a great social game, and she’s both rational and empathetic . I would really like Denise to take it to the end and win the Sole Survivor title, but she’s not in a great position.
She’s both outside the Tandang alliance and the Jeff Kent / Carter alliance and in case it’s not clear from the inverted commas, I don’t believe her “secret” alliance with Malcolm is as secret as is being played up. But everyone has bigger fish to fry right now, and Malcolm being in with Tandang should clue her in on how Pete / Abi / Artis are voting. This is a good advantage to leverage, because she won’t stand out with any weird votes, and it gives her a chance to turn the tables later on in the game. She should hope that Jeff Kent / Carter and Pete / Abi / Artis do not get along.
6 Lisa
Post-merge prediction: 12 in 100
(original prediction: 1 in 36)
It’s difficult to understand how Lisa sees the game unfolding. We hardly see her with the Tandang people any more, she is not fully on board with the Malcolm / Denise alliance and she is building bonds with Jonathan – even throwing him a hint last Tribal Council that he may be targeted.
With most castaways paired up, there’s not much need for an extra vote right now, but she's also in no danger of getting booted right now. If Lisa can lay low for a couple of weeks until her vote is needed by someone, she will have options.
7 Carter
Post-merge prediction: 8 in 100
(original prediction: 1 in 72)
I’ve continued to rank Carter pretty low because so far he’s a non-entity without any real power of his own in the game. His one alliance is with Jeff Kent, who is playing him really well. You can tell this because we see Carter in strategy discussions with Jeff Kent all the time, but Carter's opinions don't seem to have any influence on what actually happens. This could just be the editing, though. Anyway, the only way Carter can win is to go to Tribal Council without Jeff Kent being there. Keep winning immunity challenges, Carter.
8 Artis
Post-merge prediction: 5 in 100
(original prediction: 1 in 18)
I’ve ranked Artis very low because so far he’s just been there. We haven’t seen him shake up the game, or seen him try and play the nice guy who just happens to be aligned to these jerks. I just don’t know what his strategy is. He’s done a better job of holding in his competitive side than I would have thought possible, but I’m predicting that we see it break out more now we are at the individual immunity stage.
9 Jonathan
Post-merge prediction: 8 in 100
(original prediction: 1 in 9)
With the end of his alliance with Jeff Kent last week and the flushing of his immunity idol, things are looking a lot worse for Jonathan. If he can avoid elimination next episode, he might be able to hang on and put something together, but it would still be very chancy. From the previews, it looks like he’s going to try as many Hail Marys as he can. Desperation is his only asset right now.
10 Michael
Post-merge prediction: 2 in 100
(original prediction: 1 in 18)
I’ve kept Michael in last place because the Tandang group really doesn’t like him and Michael doesn’t seem inclined to do anything about it beyond keeping quiet and hoping he stays longer than Jonathan. That's not a strategy that can see him win.
Eliminees:
I don't think there have been any huge voting surprises this season, beyond how much Matsing sucked. We would have a very different list of eliminees if some of the other tribes had lost challenges early on - remember how Lisa was always off in the jungle feeling sad? Anyway, from my original predictions, Abi, Carter and Lisa get the awards for most-improved from their pre-game interview. Russell was the biggest disappointment.
Zane
First voted out
(original prediction: 1 in 18)
Zane came to Survivor with a plan – to win by playing a great social game. It had one fatal flaw: Zane was a dumbass with no sense of strategy who couldn’t keep his mouth shut.
Roxy
Second voted out
(original prediction: 1 in 24)
Russell dismissed Roxy as a “lunatic” which I don’t think was true, but she was very clearly the outsider on Matsing. To be seen, but not heard at the reunion.
Angie
Third voted out
(original prediction: 1 in 72)
Angie was a case of “what you see is what you get.”
Russell
Fourth voted out
(original prediction: 1 in 12)
I thought Russell would at least make the merge, but who could predict that Matsing would be so awful at immunity challenges? They didn’t even have to win, they just had to not lose a couple. But even mediocrity was beyond Matsing.
Dana
Medevac’d
(original prediction: 1 in 36)
Dana’s leaving the game proved to be an even bigger let-down than I thought it would, as the Kalabaw women all claimed to have an alliance with Denise, which would have shaken things up considerably. Poor Dana.
Dawson
Fifth voted out
(original prediction: 1 in 72)
Editing suggested that Dawson was the first to be voted out of Kalabaw because she couldn’t help taunting Jeff Kent. I’m not entirely convinced of that, but it did coincide with my pre-game analysis so I’ll go along with Probst and CBS. At least she got her wish to kiss Probst – though he did take two steps back to avoid getting it on the lips.
Katie
Sixth voted out
(original prediction :1 in 12)
Katie’s pre-game plan was to “lay low and not talk.” I had my doubts at the time, but I must say she executed that plan perfectly.
RC
Seventh voted out
(original prediction: 1 in 12)
RC got off to a quick start with an early alliance and a clue to the hidden immunity idol. Unfortunately it also led to her demise in the game, but how was she to know that Abi was a paranoid maniac with delusions of grandeur? One of the cruel twists of Survivor is that the game rewards pairing up on Day One, but you have to take on the risk that you're pairing with a raving lunatic.
So, here's hoping for some real blind-sides tonight.