Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
August 23, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The film in question is Hit and Run; judging by its opening day box office, you must not know it. The Dax Shepard/Bradley Cooper opened to $625,000. And no, there isn’t a digit missing in that number. Hit and Run entered a marketplace featuring lackluster titles comprising the body of the top ten. Despite this, it could only manage eighth place. Folks, if a movie’s first day is neck and neck with the sixth day of Sparkle, it’s not doing well.
Yes, Hit and Run could stage a recovery of sorts of the weekend. And yes, the movie did cost “only” $22 million to produce. I think that we can all agree at this point that there were better investment opportunities available for our friends at Open Road Films. As a reminder, this is the distribution arm created by Regal Entertainment Group and AMC Entertainment, the latter of which was recently bought a Chinese consortium.
Open Road Films has largely chosen good projects thus far, The Grey being their strongest performer thus far. Hit and Run will have to earn $12.4 million to surpass Silent House and thereby avoid becoming the worst performing for Open Road thus far. And Silent House cost a frugal $2 million to create. Of course, I have to believe that despite the commercials, Hit and Run is a better movie than Silent House, currently the worst of 52 movies I have seen thus far in 2012. In case you are wondering, Silent House’s opening weekend gross was $6,660,234. Hit and Run is not a mortal lock right now to earn that much in five days. I have to believe it will but that is far from a foregone conclusion.
The number one movie for the sixth consecutive day was The Expendables 2. Its $2,163,690 represents a 33% drop from Tuesday, steepest in the top five. The odd aspect of the box office pattern of The Expendables 2 is that it has a distinct opportunity to win a second weekend. Hit and Run clearly will not beat The Expendables…or anything else, for that matter. The Apparition and Premium Rush are the remaining two releases on Friday. If neither of them tops $13 million, The Expendables 2 will repeat. Obviously, we are facing a lousy box office weekend if this is a realistic possibility.
There isn’t much movement throughout the rest of the top ten. The Bourne Legacy earned $1,444,905 and now has a domestic total of $74,778,840, meaning it will earn over $75 million during its first two weeks in theaters. Its global take crossed $100 million on Tuesday as well. The Campaign and ParaNorman switched back spots from Tuesday. With $1,257,872, The Campaign’s 26% decline allows it to surpass the $1,197,541 of ParaNorman, which fell 31%.
The only other million dollar movie in the top ten was The Dark Knight Rises. It earned $1,196,744 yesterday on what I mentioned yesterday that I expect to be its final million dollar weekday. Before you nitpick, Labor Day is a holiday so it doesn’t count. The Dark Knight Rises has a domestic total of $413,861,764 after 34 days in theaters.
Combined box office revenue for the top ten yesterday was $10.9 million. This is a steep 27% drop from Tuesday’s solid $15.0 million. The failure of Hit and Run is a primary reason for this situation. Box office should never fall this much on a day when a new release enters theaters.
On an entirely different note, I am getting emails not just from readers but also from multiple members of the BOP staff regarding Obama’s America 2016. As is ordinarily the case with subjects like this, I will provide some analysis that is as neutral as I can manage on the subject. If you are wondering where my bias would lie on the topic, I lean left. And by lean, I mean absurdly so. My score on those online political compasses probably gets me placed on some government watch lists. Of course, I also once publicly berated an eventual Second Lady so I was probably on those watch lists already.
Now that the fine print is out of the way, here is the pertinent information on the subject that Fox News has been trumpeting over the past couple of days. Yes, Obama’s America 2016 did almost reach the top 12 last weekend. It managed this feat in only 169 locations. This weekend, it expands into 1,090 play dates in total. The timing of this is fortuitous for the reason mentioned above. This appears to be a lousy box office weekend.
What should we expect from Obama’s America 2016? Long time readers of the site are aware of Reagen Sulewski’s expansion rule. Films that go from smaller venue counts generally lose about 70% of their per-location average in the process. The reason for this is obvious. Heightened supply lessens demand. This is a basic economic principle. The per-location average of the Rocky Mountain Pictures release was $7,365 last weekend. 30% of this would be roughly $2,210. Multiplying that by 1,090 locations would be a total of $2.4 million.
There is a common sense aspect to this that the above does not address, though. $2.4 million isn’t even a million more than the film earned last weekend. Statistically, this would not cause any concern. Logically, the difference is that the mainstream media or at least the right wing elements of it have embraced this news story. This is tantamount to free advertising for the movie. As such, I would be inclined to disregard the normal rules at least a bit.
Even if Obama’s America 2016 earns the same $7,365 per location as last weekend, we would be talking about only an $8 million Friday-Sunday. Splitting the difference strikes me as the safest approach here. I would note that the math on a prior Rocky Mountain Pictures release supports the per-location expansion rule, though.
Atlas Shrugged Part I had a per-location average of $5,640 in 299 exhibitions. It expanded to 465 theaters the following weekend. In the process, its per-location average fell 66% to $1,895. And we are not talking about a massive expansion in that example. Then again, Atlas Shrugged Part I was never a popular internet story the way that Obama’s America 2016 has been.
The logical inference being made by many is that this is the conservative equivalent to Fahrenheit 9/11. That movie earned at least $11 million in each of its first three weekends of box office. Its opening weekend per-location average was $27,558 in 868 theaters. There is a fairly significant difference of scale between the two projects. Rocky Mountain Pictures should claim a top 10 title this weekend, possibly even top five, but there does not appear to be the passion for this project that the left felt with Fahrenheit 9/11, at least not yet.