Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
July 31, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Now that you've had several days to ruminate, what are your thoughts about the impact of the Aurora, Colorado tragedy on The Dark Knight Rises? Do you believe it has significantly impacted overall perception of the film? Has it impacted you? If it has, does this impact exist beyond The Dark Knight rises to include any type of movie attendance right now?
Bruce Hall: I'm sure I am in the minority here, but I have trouble identifying the shooting so closely with the film itself. It's normal for people to want to place blame in easy places so right now we're hearing a lot about the Batman Shootings, or about violent movies or gun control laws. But at the end of the day a deranged individual made a choice to find a crowded place and exorcise his demons in a tragic way. This could have happened in a lot of places. Still, I don't know that there's an accurate way to gauge the impact of this on the film's attendance, but for some the association will always be there so I'm sure it exists. But when it comes to the blame game, I'd prefer to keep the focus on how an obviously sick man might have found help before it was too late. Things like this don't have to happen, and I think putting the blame in the right place is a great way to start.
Jason Barney: I agree with Bruce. This nut acted out in a horrible way. It is sad that his violence is taking down what should have been a historic performer at the box office.
That said, it is just really hard to reconcile what has happened. As I discussed in the first post, the last film had numbers so high partly because of the death of the Heath Ledger. We can't forget that. Can anyone honestly claim that the performance of that film had nothing to do with his death? Also, people have to remember that there were conversations about his performance as the Joker and his death. His delivery was almost too good. Even if people don't connect the dots like that, the sad fact is this wing nut (and apparently a couple of others around the country) have become so obsessed with the craziness of a fictional character they cannot control themselves. Do I believe the film is at fault? Of course not. The movie industry? No. However, I sense that movie goers are just a little uncomfortable about the whole situation, even though Chris Nolan has produced art.
I suspect the film will recover in coming weekends. Will it match expectations? No. After the shootings, I just don't see how it can.
Felix Quinonez: I believe the shooting had a huge impact on the film's box office and to a smaller extent some people's perception of it. As for the box office, I think it impacted more than just its opening weekend numbers. I think it changed the whole conversation. Had there been no shooting, the movie would have opened bigger. Some people even thought it could beat The Avengers. And when a movie opens that big it becomes a sort of self generating buzz machine. Stories on its amazing box office performance would have been all over the news, giving the movie a lot of free advertising, making it an even more "must see" movie. People would also have been talking about how good it is (it got an A cinemascore), which, combined with the coverage of its box office performance would have made some of the people who weren't going to see it change their minds. All of a sudden they would want to see what all the hype and buzz is about.
But instead at the end of the weekend the only coverage the movie was getting was about the terrible shooting and the victims. Instead of talking about the quality of the movie people were talking about the deaths of these people. They were asking themselves whether or not it was safe to go to the movies. We all know nothing compares to the loss of lives and I'm not at all trying to suggest otherwise. (I know that should go without saying but this is the first time I wrote anything about box office numbers since the shooting and it feels kind of wrong, so I had to state it.) That being said I believe the shooting robbed the movie of hype, buzz and the most effective kind of advertising; the kind that comes from people they trust. And its box office numbers weren't even announced until Monday afternoon. Even then it was a low key event so I'm wondering if there were a lot of people who didn't even hear about how much money it made.
As for the perception, I believe that for some people this movie went from being "must see" to "I'll wait for it to come out on DVD." It didn't really change anything for me. I saw it the next day, I saw it again yesterday and I will try to catch a matinee this week. But I have to admit even I felt a bit uneasy the first time I watched it and I'm sure I wasn't the only one who felt that way.
Edwin Davies: I personally think that it is pretty much undeniable that the shooting has had an effect on the performance of not only The Dark Knight Rises, but every film in release at the moment. We saw that last weekend when every film tumbled drastically in a way which could only be explained as the repurcussions of this tragedy. That does not mean that the film was responsible for the event, but it has been inextricably linked to senseless death of 12 people because no one can report on the aftermath without mentioning the context in which the shooting took place. The way that rolling news coverage works means that the facts of the incident have been recounted and repeated over and over and over in the past week and a half, so the connection between the film and what happened at an exhibition of it can now never be severed. That the film in question was one of the most anticipated of the year and a massive media event already has only only amplified that impression. This is why a single, isolated incident has had such a drastic effect; everyone was excited about the Dark Knight Rises and focused on it last weekend, so when a tragedy like that happens when everyone is watching, it shatters the illusion of safety and escapism that draw people to the movies.
As we go forward and move away from the event, I think that people will return to theaters and check out The Dark Knight Rises, but the film is never going to regain the momentum that it had prior to that Friday morning.
David Mumpower: The bleakness of Christopher Nolan's Gotham City has been a key selling point for the trilogy. The authenticity of a place so imperiled that the presence of Batman would be welcome is why fans of the character have celebrated this interpretation. The problem is that a real life event of true horror is now inexorably linked with Nolan's final Batman movie. This creates a smothering effect for consumers as escaping real life through escapist entertainment is a key reason movies are so popular. Trying to remove the events of Aurora from your head by attending a movie is tricky in this regard.
To wit, I watched a screening of Savages the other days. A strangely behaving gentleman kept puttering around at the front of the theater and I must confess that I did develop a strategy for the best way to tackle him if he pulled out artillery. I say this as someone who was not at all deterred from attending movies last week. I've seen five films in theaters since the incident ten days ago. Still, I would be lying if I stated that the madman's actions did not have an impact on me.
This is the problem that The Dark Knight Rises is facing. It is the final entry in a dark storyline that has been celebrated for its unwillingness to compromise. People did not want this movie to be happier than the previous ones, at least not until 10 days ago. Instead, Nolan's final Batman offering is the most depressing yet. That subject matter is unfortunate in the wake of recent events.
The impact of this is unmistakable. Estimates for the film's first Friday dropped from $80-$90 million to an actual take of $75.7 million. The film's opening weekend take went from an estimate of $180 million to an actual take of $160 million. Its first four weekdays fell $16 million of The Dark Knight. That's $35 million in lost revenue in only seven days or $5 million a day. And I say this as someone who generally refuses to speculate about theoretical numbers. The impact is that undeniable.
I also have quantified that this impact exists beyond The Dark Knight Rises. The per-location averages for top ten titles in release this week versus last week speaks volumes about the fact that what happened in Aurora did have an impact, which is just common sense. The presence of The Olympics should have been what affected titles negatively. Instead, they universally recovered more than expected. This indicates that last weekend's totals were deflated.
Shalimar Sahota: I remember tuning in to CNN on the day the tragedy occurred, and they were already calling it "Batman Shooting Massacre." The way I see it the word "Batman" doesn't need to be there, but given how it's been spun the film will now unfortunately become synonymous with what happened. What saddens me is that I can talk to people about The Dark Knight Rises, share what I liked, what I thought worked, what didn't... and when doing so I can't help but take onboard that there are a small group of fans out there just like me, and they can't do that.
Reagen Sulewski: It's sort of the way consumer culture works. A bad association can hurt anything, and this is about as bad an association as it gets. It would be strange for it not to have affected the film, even though there's no reasonable expectation that something like this would ever happen again - it's just one of the many bits of irrational human behavior that we all share. I don't think it's even had a profound effect, but when you're talking about millions of people each week, the effect doesn't have to be that large to be noticed.
Kim Hollis: I do think that it's impossible for people to disassociate The Dark Knight Rises from the events in Colorado. Speaking as a huge fan of Batman in general, I can definitely say that my excitement for the opening of the film was pretty much dashed the morning of Friday, July 20th. I took the day off and had tickets for an 11 a.m. showing (I can't do midnights as I just can't stay awake). I woke up around 6 a.m. that day to horrible news, and I honestly just didn't even know how to disconnect properly. When we went to the theater, I strategically chose seats that were accessible to an exit. I tensed whenever anyone got up. I watched the exit doors. I still greatly enjoyed the film, but I'd be lying if I said that this whack job hasn't impacted the way I look at things.
That's carried over to other films, too. Even in watching an indie flick like Beasts of the Southern Wild, I found myself extremely aware of my surroundings. I haven't shied away from going to movies. Not at all. But I do feel differently now, and I can certainly imagine that a lot of people who were already thinking that watching films at home is preferable would now feel even more justified in having that opinion.
On a side note, I'm also pretty aggravated that because some idiot had to draw attention to himself by doing this, I now have to have my handbag searched at a movie theater. Thanks a lot for all this, asshole.
I have final comment with regard to perception of the film itself. I think that because it is very difficult to separate it from the incident and because the movie is grim and deals with terrorist-type behavior head on, The Dark Knight Rises is somewhat oppressive to watch. Now, I've enjoyed it and seen it twice, but I've heard a number of friends comment that it was just too depressing to deal with. I think that's valid. Batman is a dark character, and Nolan has treated the franchise with deference. It just happens that the triumphant finale to his trilogy was as ill-timed as possible.