Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
July 3, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Since I believe in eating dessert instead of salads, I’ll start with the fourth Spider-Man movie. History will remember The Amazing Spider-Man as a Tuesday release, when in reality it debuted last night. 3,150 locations exhibited Andrew Garfield’s first attempt to convince consumers that Tobey Maguire is replaceable. Many of you would maintain that Spider-Man 3 did this without Garfield’s help. Not coincidentally, Maguire was not pushed hard when he demonstrated reticence to return to the role.
Out with the old and in with the new is one of the entertainment industry’s favorite sayings, with the reason why being obvious. Newer means cheaper. Garfield is a virtual unknown, his key role in The Social Network notwithstanding. By casting him, the studio was able to maintain a budget of only $220 million. Stop giggling. Spider-Man 3 cost almost $40 million more. Webslinging ain’t cheap. Still, such a massive production budget is indicative of a project with the highest of expectations. Yes, The Amazing Spider-Man is a reboot of sorts, Sony’s expectation is that this project is like Batman in that any movie with this character should be blockbuster.
Sony’s relief began overseas as the new Spidey movie earned over $50 million prior to its North American release. This may not strike you as a lot in this day and age, but the Spider-Man franchise has always proven more popular in North America. Consider that all three Sam Raimi movies finished third for their years of release abroad. Conversely, Spider-Man and Spider-Man 3 were the top films in North America during their calendar years while Spider-Man 2 finished second to Shrek 2.
For all of the record setting performances of the Spider-Man franchise thus far, its international performances have not quite been as dominant. They are still great, don’t get me wrong, but Spider-Man matters more on this side of the Atlantic. For the movie to perform so well in limited markets abroad is huge in that The Amazing Spider-Man has already accrued almost 10% of what Spider-Man 3 managed during its entire international run.
The great news continued with midnight showings as The Amazing Spider-Man earned a solid $7.5 million. Analysts instantly pointed out that this total effectively matches Spider-Man 3 in 2007. There are two sides of this coin, and you can select the one you like. With 3D and IMAX ticket pricing, The Amazing Spider-Man undeniably sold much fewer tickets than its predecessor. Given the state of the franchise in the wake of Spider-Man 3, however, a dollar for dollar match is probably better than Sony Pictures had anticipated.
Consider the recent comparisons of X-Men and Batman. These other comic book properties have experienced spectacular box office over the years, but the film quality of certain titles featuring Wolverine and Mr. Freeze were…lacking. When reboots were attempted with each one, there was a natural reduction in consumer demand for the follow-up or “apology” projects.
X-Men: First Class, a movie my wife demands that I describe as exceptional, opened $34 million lower than X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Not coincidentally, this is almost exactly how much more Wolverine earned domestically, $179.9 million to $146.4 million. X-Men: First Class demonstrated stronger legs relative to opening weekend, but it could never close the gap.
Batman Begins is more complicated to evaluate since it was released in the wake of Batman & Robin, a strong candidate for worst movie of the 1990s. Its $48.8 million Friday-to-Sunday performance was a marginal improvement over its immediate predecessor’s $42.9 million, but it was short of 1995’s then-record setting Batman Forever, which earned $52.8 million. In 2005 movie dollars, Batman Forever’s debut was the equivalent of $77.6 million. As great a movie as Batman Begins is, even its five-day take of $72.9 million fell short of Batman Forever.
What we can conclude from the above is that the forgiveness phase generally does not involve the successor outperforming its predecessor. While stranger things have happened at the box office (see: The Passion of the Christ), nobody anticipates The Amazing Spider-Man’s opening weekend to match Spider-Man 3’s $151.1 million. In fact, if the movie earns that over its first six days in theaters, it will be an unqualified hit, something BOP’s Reagen Sulewski is projecting to happen.
Reagen is a bit more bullish than me, but that is because I remember how god-awful Spider-Man 3 was and I haven’t been the least bit impressed by the trailers for The Amazing Spider-Man. I am presuming that there are others like me. It is equally possible, however, that the combination of Spider-Man being so beloved and The Avengers being such a scorching performer leads consumers to forgive and forget quicker than normal. What we can say definitely thus far is that matching Spider-Man 3 in midnight exhibitions is better than any of us would have projected six months ago. This is obviously the story of the week, and BOP will monitor it closely. Mark down day one as a win.
Humorously, The Amazing Spider-Man is not only not the number one movie for Monday but technically isn’t even in the top 10. All of its midnight revenue will count toward today’s box office. Even if it had been considered for Monday, it still would not have won. Ted, Seth MacFarlane’s out of nowhere blockbuster, earned $8,729,105, which gives it a massive $63,144,310 after four days in theaters. It will clear $100 million by Sunday and possibly even by Saturday. There are not enough superlatives in the dictionary to describe this performance.
After seven days in first place, Brave briefly fell to third last Friday but has been nestled safely in second place in the interim. Its $5,388,123 on Monday represents a stupendous 40% decline from last Monday. With a running total of $137,156,457, Brave appears all but certain to best last year’s Cars 2, which was at $122.6 million after 11 days in theaters. This means we will have another addition into the $200 million club for Pixar.
Magic Mike is going to flame out of theaters quickly and we all realize this. It is the blueprint example of a one-day wonder in theaters, thanks to a $19,371,387 Friday. Its Monday revenue of $5,022,190 is good enough for third place, and is also a respectable 40% drop from Sunday’s $8,401,692. This is because stripper films are not Sunday friendly. Steven Soderbergh’s weirdest blockbuster (but far from his weirdest movie) should hold well this week due to the mid-week holiday, which will lead to a lot of vacation days/weeks for American consumers. After that, it’s going to die quickly. With a running total of $44,149,360, it has already more than doubled Soderbergh and Channing Tatum’s other 2012 project, Haywire. Score this round for the lawbreakers. Also, if you go see this movie, I will be wildly disappointed if you don’t pay with singles.
Combined revenue for the top 10 yesterday was $27.1 million, a vast improvement from the $16 million range we had at the end of last week. This number will at the very least be doubled tomorrow since the total does not include The Amazing Spider-Man. This will be a fun week for the movie industry.