Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
June 11, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted opened to $60.3 million this weekend. What do you think of this result?
Matthew Huntley: The phrase "perfectly in line with expectations" comes to mind, as this is neither a colossal opening nor a disappointing one. Paramount/DreamWorks' likable Madagascar series has always been a solid performer at the box-office, even though it's never gone above and beyond like, say, Toy Story or Shrek, as far as computer animations go. The third installment's $60 million opening simply continues that trend and it's probably enough to warrant another sequel, especially when international figures start rolling in and the studio(s) start reaping the benefits of the highly lucrative ancillary markets. I haven't seen the movie yet, but I'm willing to bet it delivers more or less what people want and expect - jokes, slapstick, action, adventure, romance, etc. - especially for this time of year. Essentially, the Madagascar movies follow a tried-and-true formula, but they follow it well. Their box-office numbers reflect that.
Bruce Hall: If your fortunes are tied to Madagascar, you have to like the fact that this opening is within nominal range of the first two installments (which opened at about $61 and 63 million, respectively). This is not something we'll be talking about two weeks from now but it's a very solid first place finish. It's getting good reviews, too. This does not suck at all for DreamWorks.
Jason Barney: This has to be seen as a win for Paramount and DreamWorks. Prior to last weekend when Snow White put a little bit of life back into the box office, things had been pretty slow. MI3 did all right. Battleship was a big disappointment. Chernobyl Diaries is virtually already gone from theaters. Dark Shadows was a flop. The Five-Year Engagement didn't pull in the numbers it was supposed to. What to Expect When You're Expecting didn't impress. So there has been a pretty dry run the last several weeks. Just putting the opening numbers up against the entire runs of some of those other films indicates there is a lot more support for this product.
Also consider there was pent up need for a family film. The Lorax was the last animated hit in theaters, and that opened all the way back on March 2nd. Lorax opened to about $70 million, so Madagascar 3 did pretty well bringing in $60 million. The Pirates! Band of Misfits didn't really fill the need, so now after several weeks of action, adventure, and fantasy films, this is a movie that families can go to.
Madagascar 3 is the fourth best opening of 2012. It had a budget of $145 million. Other studios have spent a lot more and had far worse openings. It will easily make its budget back.
I haven't seen it yet, but along the family film vein, I will be taking my seven-year-old son this weekend.
Daron Aldridge: From a viewer standpoint, I was surprised it is this high because out theater was only about half full on a Saturday afternoon. But looking at the franchise’s track record, it’s perfectly in line with the other films’ debut numbers. This eerily similar debut shows consistency is king for this Dreamworks franchise.
In order to duplicate the box office of its predecessors, this installment will have to take full advantage of being the only true "kid’s movie" out there until Brave on June 22nd. I suspect that it will end up nestled between the final domestic takes of the other films ($193 million and $180 million) and that's it. DreamWorks knew with a Madagascar film at bat they would get a double or triple out of it and nothing more. Lo and behold…that’s exactly what they got. Domestically, it’s a solid, reliable hitter but not a home run slugger.
Felix Quinonez: That sounds about right. It's in line with the other entries in the franchise. I don't really find this surprising...or interesting.
Max Braden: Holding steady for the the series. I'd call that a good thing since this movie looks like more of the same.
Kim Hollis: Max, you're right that it doesn't diverge at all from the previous films, but there's no reason for the movie to really do anything daring or different. David and I described it as "comfort food" in the wrap and that's exactly what it is. Something safe and reliable that families can feel comfortable choosing. By the same token, it's also safe and reliable for the studio, but you can't argue with the results.
The Predators are feeling a little left out.
Kim Hollis: Prometheus, the semi-prequel to Alien, opened to $51.1 million. What do you think of this result?
Matthew Huntley: It's good, but the movie's day-to-day performance (i.e. Friday-to-Saturday dip in sales) is a tad disconcerting. It makes me think the movie isn't going to go too far beyond $120-130 domestically, which isn't particularly good for a movie that cost $130 million to make. I think this will ultimately be viewed as a case of hype outweighing quality (even though the film is a solid example of its genre) and its box office numbers will eventually be indicative of that. Still, Fox has been saying the movie has already opened higher than expected, so they're probably happy with it, and international numbers will allow the movie to show a profit. And with that said, Prometheus II is probably already in its early planning stage.
Bruce Hall: I look at it this way. What we have here is an R-rated space opera, courtesy of one of the most cerebral directors working today. It's about a brainy team of scientists and a robot who go looking for God and find chest bursting horribleness instead. This is the kind of film only a handful of people in this world can even get made, let alone made well. This is the kind of film that opens to $32 million, everyone shakes their head, the studio says "we tried", blames everything on the weather or the economy, and we move on. Instead it opened to $50 million. I consider this an achievement.
Jason Barney: I have not seen it yet, but you have to think the studio is excited about the results. Just on the basis of the competition, it opened north of $50 million dollars on the same weekend Madagascar 3 opened with $60 million. That has to mean something. Even though it lost the weekend to Madagascar, it won on Friday and the weekend was in play.
The R rating may have had some movement on the numbers, but my guess is Fox is pretty happy. They took a franchise that was awesome in the 1980s (25 years ago) and then floundered with two bad films in the 1990s (Alien 3 and Alien Resurrection) and had a very nice weekend with it. I know the Alien vs Predator movies belong in the discussion, but as a science fiction fan, I kinda put them in a different category than the true Alien stories.
One of the things I am interested in as a movie fan, and as a big fan of the Aliens franchise is the "no it isn't" / "yes it is" back story in the marketing. I wonder if they didn't promote the association early on because they felt fans had become tired of the franchise or didn't like the direction of Alien vs Predator. The film looks original and different from the rest of the them, but had an outstanding trailer with a different feel to it. I bet the legs for this one will be significant. The opening was good, and I know several sci-fi fans who have not seen it yet. They plan on going in the coming weeks.
Daron Aldridge: In putting together the Alien screenshot HWDYK quiz, I used the box office takes of the first four films (ignoring AvP films) as "scoring" and I was underwhelmed by the numbers. But the $60.2 million of Alien in 1979 and the $77.6 of Aliens in 1986 are vastly more impressive when adjusted for inflation (approximately $194 million and $185 million respectively, which are admittedly the definition of "lowballing") but the $54.8 million of 1992’s Alien 3 and $47.7 million of 1997’s Alien: Resurrection (approximately $104 million and $82 million adjusted) would be viewed as middling today.
The good news heading into this weekend was that Prometheus was more akin to the first two films, but I didn’t think that it would hit $50 million. Not because of the quality of the film but rather its earning potential. Look no further than Bruce’s description, “It's about a brainy team of scientists and a robot who go looking for God and find chest bursting horribleness instead.” But then its $21 million happened on Friday and I think 20th Century Fox has to be somewhat disappointed that it only mustered up a multiplier of 2.38. The biggest concern is that if it can’t have legs in its opening weekend what does that mean for the subsequent weekends? I’m going with $110 million as best case scenario and that is probably optimistic.
Shalimar Sahota: Kinda close to expectations to me. The R-rating would have had an effect for sure, but I like that Fox went with it, because a PG-13 Prometheus would have made for a heavily sanitized film and lessened the overall impact. I feel that the marketing has been spot on in building up the mystery to the point where anyone would be remotely curious to find out what the crew of Prometheus discover. However, many reviews have interestingly pegged the film as good rather than great, which would probably suggest to anyone who is on the fence that it's not one to rush out and see on opening weekend.
Felix Quinonez: kind of have mixed feelings about this opening. Before the weekend, If I was told it would earn $50 million I would have been really impressed by it because it does look a bit too "brainy" to really break out. But after I saw that $21 million Friday, I kind of let my expectations get a bit out of control. I was expecting/hoping something close to Inception so that drop from Friday to Saturday is a bit disappointing. I know we should factor in the fact that it earned about $3.6 million on Thursday night midnight screenings but Inception had similar midnight numbers and still managed to stay about even on Saturday. I still think it's a definite win for the weekend but I'm concerned about how well it will play in the coming weeks.
Max Braden: As eye-candy pretty as the trailer looked, I was expecting a lot more. Wasn't this the movie we were all looking forward to most out of the non-sequels over the last six months? On the plus side, Prometheus actually earned more per location on Madagascar while having 20% fewer screens.
Kim Hollis: I think we can already infer from behavior so far and very mixed word-of-mouth that legs are going to be an issue here. I actually thought Prometheus would open a bit higher than it did, but I'm sure the studio is plenty content with the results. It's going to be a moneymaker overall, and I do think that it's sparked enough interest and discussion to justify a sequel, even amongst those who didn't like the film completely.