Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
February 28, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Act of Valor, a film that featured real-life Navy SEALs and realistic action sequences, opened to $24.5 million. How impressed are you by this result?
Brett Beach: I think this is impressive from an economic standpoint ($13 million pickup, 2 times that on marketing), but it also strikes me as analogous in some ways to The Passion of the Christ, albeit with patriotic flagwaving replacing the faith-based aspects of the retelling of Christ's final 12 hours. I didn't expect it to come anywhere near the former's gross, but it seemed as if it would be the first film since then that could satisfy the same kind of spiritual yen and could justify whatever level of violence was needed in the story with the explanation that this is "what really happened/happens" and it wouldn't be subjected to attacks for being just another corrupting Hollywood film. I would be surprised if it signals a larger trend, but I also would foresee other branches of the military getting in on the action. Question: Since much was made of the use of "live ammo" for what is essentially a training/recruitment film, what would the blowback have been if there had been "friendly fire" deaths?
Bruce Hall: I think this is significant in light of the fact that Americans tend not to like watching movies about current conflicts unless they're portrayed in a fictional, jingoistic light (*cough* Top Gun). Otherwise, we prefer soulful, hand wringing epics about things that happened so long ago they SEEM like fiction. But this film and this result present an interesting anomaly. The "war on terror" (or whatever we're calling it now) is a smaller scale conflict than we're used to, and has been fought largely out of sight for some time. Yet most Americans do realize there's still a threat afoot and that we remain in danger. Still, for many the menace seems distant, as the events of 9/11 have receded far enough for us to view them with with historical context. The end result is that this may be the first time in memory Hollywood has released a film about a conflict in which the United States is currently engaged, yet is one which many Americans seem to view as abstract. Well, what's NOT abstract is almost $25 million in box office. Say what you will about the shallowness of chest-thumping jingoism; sometimes it's just what the doctor ordered. I'll be the first to admit the Super Bowl trailer for this movie made me want to find a flag and strangle a terrorist with it.
But as the SEALs themselves say, "the easiest day was yesterday." This is a great start, but next week is most likely the last time we will be discussing of Act of Valor before it hits the shelves at Best Buy.
Reagen Sulewski: Novelty is a big thing in the movie business. Being the first people to bring out something that's never been seen before or hasn't been seen for a long time can be very lucrative. Ditto that for serving a niche market that's been ignored, and this film hits both those points. It's dangerous to draw out any larger social trends from this, since the followup is always tricky. In addition to the Passion of the Christ example mentioned above, I'd bring in Tyler Perry films. No one else has really been able to do what he does, because he got there first.
Edwin Davies: As a gimmick, it's a very good one and the result is suitably impressive. As Reagan points out, the appeal of the film is that it offers something that people haven't seen before, so there's a tremendous novelty to it. I'm not sure whether or not this is going to lead to a slew of these sort of action films starring real life soldiers, especially since it's got to be tough to sequelize something when you're trying to protect the identities of those involved so probably can't bring the same character back without taking the soldiers away from active from duty, but as a one-off, this is a very profitable little endeavor.
David Mumpower: Personally, I feel people are working too hard to introduce politics into the equation. This is a fantastic opening for a movie with such a modest budget. It is in the greater scheme a modest debut for an action film. We have seen five openings larger than this already in 2012; to wit, Act of Valor would have been the fourth largest opener a couple of weeks ago. It is effectively tied with Contraband, a similar film in the genre for which we did not debate red/blue state interest. So, I'm going to ignore all the nonsense about politics and say that this is a real life version of Call of Duty. I fully understand why there was some excitement about the project and I think it's awesome than some people who spent their lives in the line of fire are getting a moment in the sun from this. This is a box office triumph since Relativity Media was so frugal with the budget.
Man, now Tyler Perry is bragging about all the great stuff he does.
Kim Hollis: Tyler Perry's Good Deeds, the latest film from one of the most prolific talents in the industry, opened to $15.6 million. What do you think of this result?
Brett Beach: Taken in the ranking of things, it's his second worst opening for his projects going back to Diary of a Mad Black Woman. However, it does represent a departure from both Madea-related features and from the large ensemble pictures he usually does. Perry is the lead, is front and center in the advertising, is in fact, carrying the film on his name alone (even more so than usual). I think it is still a decent opening, and wouldn't be worried until his opening weekend gross drops below $10 million. I think his next project is a Madea film, which is smart and should see the expectedly larger gross.
Bruce Hall: It's not hard to be prolific once you've found a formula. Ask Michael Bay. But Tyler Perry is who he is; the Male Oprah. The Moprah. And he DOES have a formula. Each film is more or less an obvious series of narrative beats punctuated by predictable themes on faith, family and responsibility. For good measure, slather on a generous amount of sugary treacle. Optionally, add Tyler Perry in drag waving a gun around. Half-bake at 250 degrees for 100 minutes.
Serve lukewarm. Count money. Repeat twice a year.
I can't sit here and say why this opening weekend was so relatively lackluster, but what I can say is this: 1) This movie will make a profit, because... 2) It doesn't have cost a lot to make the same movie repeatedly, and... 3) His fans don't seem to mind paying for the same message over and over again because... 4) They're the only ones who go to see his films, because... 5) Each one is a love letter specifically for THEM.
You won't find a more perfect formula outside Coca-Cola headquarters in Atlanta. Oh, and 6) Tyler Perry's next movie IS about Madea, and this time it also stars Denise Richards and Tom Arnold...so...you know...it'll probably be good.
Reagen Sulewski: I wonder if Tyler Perry ever has nightmares where he can't take the Madea suit off.
Edwin Davies: This is towards the lower end of what I expected since I had started to think that, whilst his non-Madea movies will always open lower than his Madea ones, his name alone would be enough to ensure a bigger opening than this. At the same time, this is somewhat unlike a lot of his other films since there isn't the same broad ensemble cast to fall back on: the whole film rests on Perry's shoulders. That his audience continues to follow him regardless of what he does displays almost unheard of consistency in the modern movie industry, so to see him open a film without wearing a fatsuit or relying on other gimmicks to $16 million is very impressive. Though it didn't have to be, considering how cheaply he makes his films.
David Mumpower: I think we are focusing too much on the non-Madea aspect when I believe this is something simpler. Consumers are suffering from Tyler Perry exhaustion. With such a constant onslaught of products, each new release has to differentiate itself in a manner that justifies the price of admission. Good Deeds was lacking in this regard and that's why people are waiting to spend the dollar at Redbox.