Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
February 20, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: This Means War, aka "The Battle for Reese Witherspoon," opened to $17.4 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. Is this a good enough result for a film with a $65 million budget?
Brett Beach: I am not certain this is going to be tremendously strong overseas, so I would say no, it's not a good enough start, but a lot better than it deserves based on how terrible all the advertising (and the reviews) have made it seem. Bright spot: It will outgross How Do You Know. Brighter spot: It cost $55 million less than How Do You Know. Brightest spot: It looks less appealing to my wife than The Vow (she can't get past Channing Tatum's ears) so it's a film I can shove out of my consciousness going forth (on the other hand, I will probably be renting The Vow down the line).
Matt Huntley: First, Brett: The Vow is actually a decent romantic drama, so I'd say you and your wife are OK to give it a chance, regardless of Tatum's supposedly strange ears.
As for the other Valentine's Day movie on the other end of the spectrum, This Means War, its opening seems a little soft to me. I would have put the three-day closer to $21 million and the four-day at $25, especially given that its crossing of genres - action and romance - likely appealed to both sexes and they'd be able to compromise on seeing this one instead of, and forgive me if I'm being sexist, a full-on estrogen flick like The Vow) or a full-on testosterone flick like Safe House or Ghost Rider. The only explanation I can offer is that it arrived during too crowded a marketplace and there just wasn't enough room for it to breathe. I think its premise is commercially viable, but it needed more of an audience to itself to really shine.
Bruce Hall: Strong enough? No, not really. Not when Captain Kirk and Handsome Bob are the ones fighting the battle. Chris Pine and Tom Hardy are well liked rising stars, and this type of flick really seems right up Reese Witherspoon's alley. Someone intended this to be at least a modest hit. And despite the generally lackluster reviews and the dumb trailers, it still seemed like it should have been more fun - and more successful - than it was. It's an underwhelming result in my opinion, but it looks like the total worldwide gross currently stands at just under $30 million. There's a fair shot this one will at least break even.
Edwin Davies: I'd say not, since the components seemed to suggest that it could have done much better. It's got two likable male leads, both of whom are coming off big hits (Star Trek and Inception) and one of whom is the villain in one of the biggest, if not the biggest, films of the year (The Dark Knight Rises). This seemed poised to take advantage of their burgeoning star power by hooking it to McG, a director with a solid track record of making mediocre films that make a decent amount of money, and a premise that was clear and easily marketable (even if the title proved less so, as evidenced by the number of people who thought that it was called Spy Against Spy). Reese Witherspoon's appeal has been on the wane of late, but it seemed like there was plenty in there to warrant a $25-30 million opening.
For me, I think that this result hinges on the decision to move the film's release date back from Valentine's Day. Fox was, probably rightfully, worried about going up against The Vow, but if This Means War had any chance of making an impact it would have done so then, when it could have been a decent consensus choice for couples torn between The Vow and Safe House. Opening three days later may have cost the film quite dearly in the long run.
David Mumpower: First of all, I think Brett's wife is the only woman alive who notices Tatum's ears over his...other parts. With regards to the opening, I would describe it as mediocre or, more politely, average. Given the star power involved and the premise, this should have been a much more popular film. Still, its performance is right in the range for a romantic comedy with a big name at the top of the cast. Edwin points to the push back from Valentine's Day as a tipping point. I maintain that pushing the movie up from May is where the real mistake was made. The people behind this decision wanted to capitalize on the burgeoning February market. What they did was make their product look inferior relative to The Vow and created direct demographic competition for their title in its first weekend of release. Had it stayed in May, it would have been a great counter-programming choice for women as May is generally action film-intensive. There also would have been Memorial Day box office inflation to enhance its bottom line. With a February release, its non-holiday weekdays are going to be negligible, which means the movie's opening weekend is all the more important. This is a What Went Wrong column waiting to happen. And most of the mistakes are with the distributor even if the movie is not very good. That hasn't stopped any number of romantic comedies from exceeding expectations over the past few years. A release date change should only be done when it gives a title a better chance at success. The opposite is true with This Means War.
Max Braden: That's a disappointing opening since, as others point out, this would have been prime material for Valentine's Day couples. Action for the guys, romantic comedy for the girls. It's a straightforward premise with three easily identifiable characters and looks a lot like Mr. & Mrs. Smith. Maybe it's too much to ask for Charlie's Angels numbers, but this McG flick should have done better.
Pure joy? Yes indeed.
Kim Hollis: Studio Ghibli debuted their latest animated masterpiece this weekend as The Secret World of Arrietty opened to $6.4 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. What do you think of this result?
Brett Beach: It should be able to vault past 1998's The Borrowers ($22 million) which is from the same source material and maybe double Ponyo's $15 million take, which would be the best possible result, domsetically speaking. I can't say I am ever happy that films are released here dubbed, but if this serves the purpose of introducing kids and adults to Ghibli and they move on to Spirited Away and Princess Mononoke and then some day gird themselves for Grave of the Fireflies, well then this gateway drug has served its purpose. Perhaps the next release can crack $50 million?
Matthew Huntley: "Masterpiece" may be too strong a word for this entry from Studio Ghibli, but "beautiful" and "thoughtful" certainly aren't. This is a good movie and I hope more people give it a chance. I expected it to start out slow, but if it shows just as strong of legs as Ponyo, which opened with about half as much, this could go on to make as much as $25 million, which would be a promising start toward cracking that $50 million barrier.
Also, Brett, I agree the Japanese soundtracks are always better than the English dubs, but Arrietty's is actually quite good.
Edwin Davies: This is slow, but steady and encouraging progress for a studio which has almost never set a foot wrong (with the possible exception of Tales of Earthsea, which to me is very much the Cars 2 of Ghibli's output) and keeps putting out incredibly beautiful and moving animated films that show just how amazing the medium can be. The film doesn't really need to make money in the States since, like all Ghibli films, it has done astonishingly well in Japan and the world in general, but this is a good indicator that they are starting to gain real ground domestically, and that will hopefully turn more people on to their truly stunning back catalogue.
David Mumpower: I am going to take a different point of view on this. I believe this performance is inflated a bit, because this is by far the widest a Studio Ghibli project has debuted in North America. As an example, Ponyo debuted in 927 locations as opposed to 1,522 for Arrietty. Howl's Moving Castle never expanded beyond 202 locations while 714 was the upper limit for their best movie to date, Spirited Away. While I am pleased to see Studio Ghibli receiving this sort of popularity on our continent, I do believe that this movie will perform like most major studio releases rather than run indefinitely as past titles from Studio Ghibli have done. Either way, I encourage all movie lovers who have yet to do so to track down some Studio Ghibli titles. If nothing else, you'll want to find out about the Catbus.
Max Braden: When I saw this title coming up on the release schedule, I thought "Nobody's going to know this is coming out, nobody's going to see it." I did finally see one ad for it during primetime tv last week. I don't think the name Ghibli means anything to audiences outside of the independent theater/film club crowd until maybe you mention their previous titles, which might evoke strong reactions for or against. $6 million is fairly impressive given the small audience they were going to reach.