Oscar 2012: Final Predictions Part Three
By Tom Houseman
February 21, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Forgiveness is for the weak!
I generally don't care for the acting categories, as least when it comes to predictions. Because the actors have higher profiles than any other nominees, people pay more attention to them, which means that winners can often be called months before they are even nominated. They are more likely than any other category to be extremely predictable, which makes them boring. But when they are not predictable they are stressful, because, as an Oscar tracker, I'm supposed to be able to divine which of the frontrunners is going to win. If I incorrectly predict a win for The Artist in Best Film Editing this year, it won't be that big a deal, but if I incorrectly predict it to win Best Actor, then I'm looked at as the fool who doesn't even know what's going to win one of the most important categories of the year (even though I would argue that Best Film Editing is a more important category than Best Actor).

The acting categories have by far the most precursors, which is partially what can make them so predictable. When No Country for Old Men won the Cinema Audio Society award for Best Sound Mixing, you could still make the argument that it wasn't going to win the Oscar. But when Javier Bardem won the Globe, the SAG, the BFCA, the BAFTA, and the Central Ohio Film Critics Association award (that's right, he even won the COFCA) nobody was going to predict Casey Affleck to win the Oscar. So we are presented with a mountain of information through which to sift, in addition to the buzz and popularity contest that doesn't have much of an affect on Best Film Editing (although Michael Kahn is notorious for his smear campaigns), and we are supposed to figure out which actors will end up hugging their naked gold man on Sunday night.

Best Supporting Actor

It is rare to have an actor come into the Oscar race as the clear favorite and then maintain their momentum all the way through the race. Most of the time there is an ebb and flow, as a strong contender fades, or a group of two or three heavyweights fight it out for momentum all the way through the race. But the category in which we are most likely to see domination by one actor is in this category. The past four years there was one performance that everybody pointed to as being the best of the year, and there was never really a question that they would lose. Christian Bale, Christoph Waltz, Heath Ledger and Javier Bardem all cruised to their Oscar, while in the three years before that Alan Arkin upset Eddie Murphy, George Clooney barely beat Paul Giamatti, and Morgan Freeman built up late momentum to beat Clive Owen.

So the question is, this late in the race, can anybody beat Christopher Plummer? Beginners came out in the spring, and as soon as everybody saw it the word was “if people haven't forgotten about his performance by the fall, he's going to win the Oscar.” Well he's ridden that momentum for almost a year, and now it looks like he is going to capitalize on it. Could fellow veterans Max von Sydow, Nick Nolte, or Kenneth Branagh pull off an upset? It seems all but impossible. When an actor wins the Globe and the SAG, they are essentially a lock to win the Oscar. Eddie Murphy went home Oscar-less despite Globe and SAG wins, but there was quite a bit of bad blood in the industry towards him, while Plummer is beloved, and is not starring in a fat suit comedy. He seems safe.

Will Win: Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Might Win: Max von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Dark Horse: Nick Nolte - Warrior

Best Supporting Actress

Domination by one nominee is much rarer in this category than in its male counterpart. Melissa Leo was a shaky frontrunner through much of awards season, Kate Winslet would have been the favorite here for The Reader had she not jumped categories, and in both 2007 and 2000 three different actresses took home the Globe, the SAG, and the Oscar. But the rule remains that when one actress does build momentum, they generally hang onto it. Other than the Winslet anomaly, the last time an actress won both the Globe and the SAG in this category and lost the Oscar was 1997, when Lauren Bacall fell victim to the domination of The English Patient and Juliette Binoche won the Oscar.

With that history in mind, is there any chance that Octavia Spencer could lose Best Supporting Actress? Might co-star Jessica Chastain syphon off some of her votes? Would that allow Berenice Bejo, who is essentially a co-lead in the Best Picture frontrunner, to swoop in and steal the Oscar? It would be a gutsy pick to make, and it's unlikely to pay off. But considering everyone is going to be predicting Spencer, one way to steal a category is to pick Bejo for the upset and pray that it happens. It wouldn't be a Marissa Tomei level upset, but it would be close.

Will Win: Octavia Spencer - The Help
Might Win: Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Dark Horse: Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids

Best Actor

In a year in which the supporting categories are locked up, the leading categories are where we find our excitement. George Clooney was the favorite at the beginning of the race, but lately Jean Dujardin has been stepping on his coattails. Now we have something out of Ben-Hur, where the two favorites are neck and neck, each trying to angle for some sort of advantage. As always, let's let history be our guide.

This is a year with a non-traditional Globes/SAG split, the kind you can't have in the supporting categories because they are not divided by comedy and drama. There have only been three times (not including Benicio Del Toro's category jump in 2000) when the SAG and the Oscar have not matched up here. All three of those times the circumstances were strange: Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson split the SAG and the Globe, but Adrien Brody came in at the last second to steal the Oscar. Russell Crowe won both the Golden Globe and the SAG for A Beautiful Mind, but Denzel Washington rode a wave of support to capture the Oscar. The most relevant year this happened was in 2003, when Johnny Depp won the SAG for Pirates of the Caribbean, but lost the Oscar to Sean Penn for Mystic River, who had also won the Golden Globe for Drama.

But that was a particularly strange year, since Depp had not won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy. That had gone to Bill Murray for Lost in Translation, who had also won the BAFTA. In a year with two popular actors in comedies splitting the vote, support for Sean Penn, who had never won an Oscar before, won the big prize. But Dujardin did win the Globe, and in the major precursors where Dujardin and Clooney have gone head-to-head, Dujardin has been victorious, winning both the SAG, the BFCA, and the BAFTA. Only twice has an actor won both the Globe for Actor-Comedy and the SAG Award for Actor: Jamie Foxx for Ray and Jack Nicholson for As Good as it Gets. Both of them won the Oscar, Foxx beating Leonardo Dicaprio (who won the drama Globe for The Aviator) and Nicholson beating Henry Fonda (who won the drama Globe for Ulee's Gold). Had Clooney never won an Oscar before this might be a different race, but right now it seems like the momentum for Dujardin is too much for Clooney to overcome.

Will Win: Juan Dujardin - The Artist
Might Win: George Clooney - The Descendants
Dark Horse: Brad Pitt - Moneyball

Best Actress

This category is even trickier than Best Actor because, while Viola Davis does have a lot of momentum, Meryl Streep has two key precursor wins in head-to-head battles against Davis. Streep won both the Golden Globe and the BAFTA award, while Davis took the SAG award and the Critic's Choice Award. Based on that information, who is the favorite? If we are making an argument for Streep winning, let's look at times that the Globe Drama winner won the Oscar without winning the SAG award. That has happened twice, in 1999 and 1994. Hilary Swank won the Golden Globe, but lost the SAG to Annette Bening. Despite going up against the star of the Best Picture winner, Swank won the Oscar. In 1994 Jessica Lange won the Globe for Blue Sky, while the SAG went to Jodie Foster for Nell. It is likely that the Oscars did not want to award Foster again, as she had won in both 1988 and 1991, so the Oscar went to Lange.

Now let's look at years where the SAG winner lost the Globe but won the Oscar. In 2001 Halle Berry lost the Globe to Sissy Spacek, but a wave of momentum got her the SAG win and carried her to the Oscar. The same thing happened in 1995, when Sharon Stone beat Susan Sarandon for the Globe Drama, but Sarandon won the SAG award and ended up winning the Oscar. It is also important to keep in mind that the BAFTA is not terribly helpful here.

Over the last 16 years their Best Actress prize has matched Oscar less than half the time. Plus, the Brits were predisposed to vote for Streep since she is playing a British icon in Margaret Thatcher, while Viola Davis is playing in American icon in Mammy. In addition, the HFPA tends to award Streep fairly frequently. She has won Globes for Julie & Julia, The Devil Wears Prada, and Adaptation, but did not win the Oscar for any of those performances.

You can make strong cases for either performance. Streep is playing a real person, has an accent, is wearing prosthetics, and feigns dementia, all of which are major plusses when it comes to the Oscars. Davis is wildly popular, starring in a film that is loved by the actors and is a Best Picture nominee. It has been more than a decade since an actress in a film that was nominated for Best Picture lost this award to an actress who wasn't (Halle Berry beating Sissy Spacek in 2001). The Academy has been waiting for the right time to give Streep another Oscar, always finding a reason not to. Is The Iron Lady convincing enough as a case for Streep's third Oscar? I suspect it won't be.

Will Win: Viola Davis - The Help
Might Win: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Dark Horse: Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn