Oscar 2012: Final Predictions Part Two
By Tom Houseman
February 16, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Remember that the people who actually do these things for a living, the production designers, the directors of photography, the costume designers, and the film editors, make up only a small percentage of the people who vote on these awards. The majority of voters don't know anything about the technical aspects of these fields, they don't know what kind of work goes into costuming hundreds of extras, or setting up the perfect shot that has to travel through a battlefield while avoiding the craft services table, or staying up for 20 straight hours to re-edit a scene so that the music starts swelling at exactly the right moment.
All they know is what looks good. What looks cool and impressive and beautiful. That is why Pan's Labyrinth beat Children of Men for Best Cinematography, or why Return of the King beat City of God for Best Film Editing, or why between 2006 and 2009, the award for Best Costumes went to the film with the prettiest dresses every time. When it comes to these four categories there is no secret underlying method to how Academy members vote. They like what they like. Sometimes what they like is unconventional, like when There Will be Blood won Best Cinematography, or when The Bourne Ultimatum won Best Film Editing, but even in those cases the axiom still holds true. They like what they like.
Best Art Direction
“Spectacular, Spectacular” declares Harold Zidler during a scene in Moulin Rouge! in which he is trying to impress his producer. He might have been talking about Oscar voters, though, and he would have been right, since Moulin Rouge! won both Best Art Direction and Best Costumes. The winners in this category are all about spectacle, being big and grandiose. Lots of sets, lots of locations, always something either from the past or from a fantasy world. So the question you have to ask yourself is not which film has the most detailed or intricate sets, but which one has the biggest. The most spectacular.
When you phrase it like that, one film seems to be the clear frontrunner. Hugo not only recreates the world of 1930s Paris, it also recreates the lavish sets that George Mellies used in his films. There are so many different impressive sets, from the train station to inside the clock, to the library to the theater. The last time Scorsese made a film about a filmmaker it was The Aviator, which also won Best Art Direction. Yes, The Artist is definitely a threat in this category, but this is one case where being in black and white could hurt it. While creating sets designed to be photographed in black and white is a challenge, it is not the kind that non-professionals would know anything about. All they know is that it doesn't stand out as much. Its Best Picture frontrunner status will also not be much help, since as many Best Picture winners have lost this category in the last decade (Gladiator and The King's Speech) as have won (Chicago and Return of the King.
Will Win: Hugo
Might Win: The Artist
Dark Horse: War Horse
Best Cinematography
You wouldn't expect Best Art Direction and Best Cinematography to be closely connected, but they clearly are. Since 2000 only two Best Cinematography winners have won Best Picture, and only three have also won Best Film Editing. But in six of the last 11 years, the film that won Best Art Direction also won Best Cinematography. Only once since 1999 has the winner in each category been nominated in the other category and not won. That was 2001, when Moulin Rouge! And The Fellowship of the Ring split the two awards. This year there are three films nominated for both categories, so those should be the favorites... should being the operative word.
Not surprisingly, both Hugo and The Artist are looking to take this category. Since Hugo is likely to win Best Art Direction it has the advantage. The way it sweeps and swerves through its impressive sets is the kind of cinematography that the Academy swoons for. That's why Inception beat The King's Speech, why Avatar beat The Hurt Locker, and why Memoirs of a Geisha beat Brokeback Mountain. But there is so much love for The Artist that it can't be counted out. If it is going to sweep then it will take this category, even if it doesn't win Best Art Direction. When Slumdog Millionaire dominated the Oscars it beat Best Art Direction winner The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, so a win for The Artist wouldn't be unprecedented.
There is a wild card in this category. In 2007, There Will be Blood won Best Cinematography, beating frontrunner Atonement and Best Picture winner No Country for Old Men. There Will be Blood was an unconventional Best Picture nominee, but there was a lot of respect for it, and most people agreed that its cinematography was impressive. Could The Tree of Life, another slow, contemplative film from a beloved auteur, win this award? If you are looking to predict an upset in this category, this would be a gutsy pick.
Will Win: Hugo
Might Win: The Artist
Dark Horse: The Tree of Life
Best Costumes
It is tempting to find arguments against Hugo doing so well in the below the line categories. Why, if it is winning so many awards, don't they want to give it Best Picture? But looking at Inception, The Aviator, and Saving Private Ryan, you begin to understand. These are movies that are dazzling technical achievements, movies that really impressed voters, that were undeniably great in what they showed on screen. But they weren't the films that the Academy loved, not in the way they loved The King's Speech, Million Dollar Baby, and Shakespeare in Love. Those first three films won four technical Oscars each, while of the latter three, only Shakespeare in Love won any below the line Oscars. But those were the three that won Best Picture, because, while they might not have been the most impressive technical achievements, they were the ones that won over voters where it mattered: their hearts.
Which is not to say that The Artist should be counted out of the race for Best Costumes, or that Hugo has it in the bag. Hugo's costumes are almost as flashy as its sets, which makes it the frontrunner, but The Artist is more of a threat here than in Art Direction. It has a wide variety of costumes, and its gowns and suits are very memorable. Gangs of New York might have had more impressive costumes than Chicago, but Chicago was more defined by what its characters wore. It would be very easy for me to talk myself into predicting a win for The Artist here, but I'll stick with my gut.
Will Win: Hugo
Might Win: The Artist
Dark Horse: Jane Eyre
Best Film Editing
This is the category where Best Picture winners are made. Going back 20 years, 11 Best Picture winners have also taken home Best Film Editing, a closer matchup than any category except for Best Director. What kind of Best Picture winners don't win Best Film Editing? The kind that don't have a large consensus of voters pushing for them, or that are not heralded for their technical achievements. The King's Speech, No Country for Old Men, Million Dollar Baby, and A Beautiful Mind, Gladiator, American Beauty. Most of those films you don't watch and think “wow, that's great film editing.” Gladiator is the oddball on that list, but that lost to Traffic, which had very notable editing.
The kinds of films that win without also taking Best Picture are the kind that have really standout film editing, the kind that gets attention. Traffic is a perfect example. The Social Network had it, as did The Bourne Ultimatum, Black Hawk Down, and The Matrix. Is there a nominee that has that high a level of attention-getting editing? You could make an argument for Hugo, but it would be a weak one. It is also worth noting that, unless there is a Best Picture winner sweeping, Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing rarely match up, with The Aviator being the only recent example. There is no brilliantly edited film in this category, which means that the safe choice is The Artist.
Will Win: The Artist
Might Win: Hugo
Dark Horse: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo