Oscar 2012: Arts and Crafts
By Tom Houseman
January 21, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
I will admit that I have a soft spot in my heart for Best Art Direction, Best Costumes, and Best Makeup. The first year I paid attention to the Oscars was 1998, when I correctly predicted Men In Black's win over Titanic in Best Makeup. 2001 was the first year I filled out a prediction ballot, and while I did appallingly badly, I did successfully predict Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon for Best Art Direction. I have no cute anecdote to share about Best Costumes, but I suppose I like that category too.
What makes these categories tricky to predict is that the branches who choose the nominees often march to the beat of their own LSD-fueled drummer. Best Picture cred helps films in categories like Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Mixing and Score, but here it isn't good for much. Sure, films like The Queen or Milk probably wouldn't have scored nominations had they not been getting so much attention, but you're just as likely to see weird independent films (The Tempest, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus) and Hollywood blockbusters (can we make sure to always refer to it as “Academy Award winner Harry and the Hendersons from now on?) as a Best Picture nominee. In the last seven years there has never been more than three Best Picture nominees represented in Art Direction and Costumes, and only one of 21 Best Makeup nominees was also up for Best Picture (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button).
What does make things slightly easier is that the same films often turn up in more than one of these categories, which makes sense; if a film has great sets, it probably also has great costumes or great makeup. Most years either two or three films get both Art Direction and Costumes nominations, and often at least one of the Best Makeup nominees will show up in one of those categories (Benjamin Button and Lemony Snicket were the last two films to score the trifecta). 2003, which you might remember as the easiest Oscar year ever for predicting, had an almost perfect matchup: the same five films were nominated for Art Direction and Costumes, and two of those films were also Best Makeup nominees.
So let's start by looking at the films that could find support from two or three of these branches, and as always, the Best Picture contenders lead the way. Two of the Best Picture frontrunners are big, sweeping historical films, which almost always play well in these three categories. Both Hugo and The Artist were nominated by the Art Directors Guild and are on the shortlist for Best Makeup (a group of seven films that will be whittled down to three nominees) which puts them both in a very good position to score at least two nominations.
Scorsese is working with his usual crew, which means pretty much all of them have histories with the Academy. Production designer Dante Ferretti has been nominated four times for Scorsese collaborations, and costume designer Sandy Powell has two (although she has seven nominations with other directors), and both won for The Aviator. Michel Hazanavicius is not working with as prestigious a crew, as Laurence Bennett and Mark Bridges have a total of zero nominations to date. Still, both films have impressive, creative sets and costumes and are very safe bets or nominations in both categories.
Makeup will not be as much of a shoe-in for these two films. The Artist is the sort of film that might appeal to those obsessed with film makeup, since it is in black-and-white, which creates an unusual challenge for the makeup artist. Hugo uses makeup and hair (technically the award is for both aspects) effectively to create its characters, especially Georges Melies and the Station Inspector. But neither film has the really standout obvious makeup that helps a film score a nomination, especially since neither uses prosthetics. Considering how much love there is for both films they do certainly have a shot, but it wouldn't be surprising if both were overlooked here.
The other Best Picture contenders won't have quite the easy ride that Hugo and The Artist will. War films do not do well in Art Direction, and even worse in costumes; will Spielberg and War Horse be able to overcome that bias? Considering Eastwood couldn't with either Flags of our Fathers or Letters from Iwo Jima, it seems unlikely. Art Direction is on the table if there is enough support for the film (Saving Private Ryan was nominated) but costumes is very unlikely. The Help is also a tossup, because while it is set in the past (a major advantage in these categories) the sets and costumes are not terribly memorable. Some movies do get nominated just for having pretty dresses, but it will be a challenge for The Help to get into either category.
The wildcard in Art Direction and Costumes is Midnight in Paris, which combines modern and classic sets and costumes in a way that few films get the opportunity to do. The sheer variety of sets and costumes in Allen's film may give it an advantage, although not getting an Art Directors Guild nomination is a bad sign. Another less flashy but still impressive film is Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. The sets and costumes in that film are not ostentatious but do an effective job of creating the tone and ambiance of Cold War era Europe. It is easy to see these two branches getting behind the film, and an ADG nomination is a step in the right direction.
Beyond those Best Picture contenders there are a handful of other films that are a threat in at least two of these categories, but only one that has a legitimate shot at being nominated for all three. There was a significant amount of controversy surrounding Anonymous, a film about what a drunken illiterate loser William Shakespeare was. But those who saw it recognized the remarkable sets, costumes, hair and makeup that worked to recreate Elizabethan England. The film is on the shortlist for Best Makeup and received an ADG nomination, placing it in prime position for multiple nominations.
One film that might not be ostentatious, but is certainly Austentatious, is Jane Eyre (I couldn't figure out how to get the word Bronte in there, sorry lit nerds). Jane Eyre could follow in the tradition of similar costume dramas such as Bright Star, The Young Victoria, and The Duchess and score at least one artistic nomination. Another film with very notable dresses, although set more recently, is The Iron Lady. Margaret Thatcher's wardrobe in the film is quite distinctive, and if films like I Am Love, La Vie en Rose and The Queen can get nominated on the strength of their dresses, you shouldn't count this film out. But the category where The Iron Lady is almost certain to have a presence is Best Makeup; even the film's detractors credit its impressive aging of Streep to look almost exactly like Thatcher in her twilight years.
As always there are a few Hollywood blockbusters looking to score nominations this year. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 has a chance to capitalize on support for the series as a whole, capping a remarkable run of eight films. Three Potter films have been nominated for Art Direction, while only Sorcerer's Stone got a costume nomination. The Academy might be tired of the Potter series, but if they decide to support the film it could show up in all three of these categories.
Captain America: The First Avenger could be the first superhero film not about Batman to be nominated for Best Art Direction. Any film set during World War II must be considered for that award, but will the Art Directors be able to take it seriously enough to nominate it? The ADG did, but they were able to nominate 15 films, which gave them more freedom. The Adventures of Tintin is also trying for a first, as it would be the first animated film to be nominated in this category (not counting Who Framed Roger Rabbit). Will its impressive art direction be able to overcome the bias against animated films? Probably not, but it has a shot. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides will attempt to overcome series fatigue to be the second Pirates film nominated for Art Direction (and potentially the first to be nominated for its costumes) while Cowboys and Aliens will try to be this year's Academy Award nominated movie that everybody hates.
There are a few wild cards that have to be mentioned, mostly so that if they do get nominated I won't feel foolish for not even considering them. Prestigious period pieces are always a threat to stumble in here, and two that should be brought up are A Dangerous Method and My Week with Marilyn. A Dangerous Method is set in early 20th Century Germany, which gives it plenty of opportunities for sets and costumes that you don't get to see very often. My Week with Marilyn, of course, has the chance to clothe Marilyn Monroe as well as create “movie” sets and costumes that could impress voters. Two modern films are hoping to make a splash: Drive's highly stylized sets and costumes might win over voters looking to nominate something set in the present (it did get an ADG nomination) and The Tree of Life's eclectic art direction might turn a few heads.
Rounding out the Best Makeup shortlist are two films that very few people have seen, which is why they deserve attention simply for making it this far in the nomination process. The transformation of Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs does not stand out as much as Streep's in The Iron Lady (at least from what I've seen in commercials), but clearly it did what it did very well if it was able to beat out J. Edgar for a spot on this list. Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life is an even less recognizable title; the french biopic about musician Serge Gainsbourg received little fanfare upon its American release this August, but apparently the aging process of lead Eric Elmosnino got the attention of the people who selected the films on the shortlist. When unconventional picks like The Way Back and Il Divo can get nominated, it's impossible to rule out anything.
So now that I have broken down all of the contenders for these awards, here are my predictions for which films have the best shot. The usual disclaimers apply, in that I am not a licensed Oscar predictor and that my haphazard guesses should not be taken as gospel. These are just my best bets right now.
Best Art Direction:
1. Hugo
2. The Artist
3. War Horse
4. Anonymous
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
6. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. Jane Eyre
8. The Help
Best Costumes:
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. Jane Eyre
4. Anonymous
5. The Help
6. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. My Week with Marilyn
8. The Iron Lady
Best Makeup:
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
2. The Iron Lady
3. Albert Nobbs
4. The Artist
5. Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
6. Hugo
7. Anonymous