Oscar 2012: Visual Effects
By Tom Houseman
December 21, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Flying apes may be closer than they appear.
You can't love the Oscars without loving the tech categories. The actors and directors might get all the glory, but if you want to have a lot of fun following the Oscar races, look at the artistic and technical awards. They're what give the Oscars a level of creativity and respect that other award shows don't have: these are the people who know movies, love movies, and want to award every aspect of what make movies great. Personally, my favorite category is Best Sound Mixing, with Best Art Direction a close second. And of course there's the category everybody loves to hate: Best Makeup. This is the category that is responsible for both Click and Norbit being forever known as Oscar nominees.

So when I want to take a break from analyzing Best Picture, I love to look at these other categories, and one of the most fun to look at pre-nominations is Best Visual Effects. Visual Effects is fun because the contenders here are the ones that rarely show up in the more “respected” categories, giving a chance for the blockbusters to get some love. In addition, the Oscars announce a short list for Best Visual Effects (which has expanded to 15 potential nominees since the category has grown to include five nominees) which means that we have a very small pool of films from which to draw in making our predictions.

This year's short list is quite diverse, and there will likely be some crossover between Best Picture and Best Visual Effects when the nominations are announced. There are the usual summer blockbusters that will only be recognized for their extraordinary effects, but a handful of more prestigious films could potentially be nominated in the major categories as well. Then there are the films that either you don't associate with visual effects, even if they are big action movies, or you just don't think of at all. It makes for quite an eclectic mix of early and late releases, loved and loathed films, magic, monsters, and machines.

Captain America: The First Avenger

This film will definitely benefit from having only the visual effects branch of the category voting on the nominees. The effects during the action scenes are no more impressive than any other action movie this year (and far less than something like Transformers or X-Men) but what will really blow away fellow visual effects artists is the way Chris Evans' body is transformed via CGI during the first half hour. It is so realistic looking that it doesn't jump out as being CGI, which will certainly impress the guys who do this for a living. It will be hard for Captain America to find a place in the category, but it could definitely pull an upset.

Cowboys vs. Aliens

I assumed everybody had forgotten about this film since it sank quickly during its summer release. But with an expanded category there will always be room for a couple of films to serve as filler. The visual effects branch tends to like films that effectively blend the real world with what the CGI while looking as realistic as possible. Camp is not something they value particularly highly. Yes, Favreau got both Iron Man films into this category, but of the team of four that worked on Iron Man 2, only one worked on this film. I would put the odds of this film being nominated as next to zero, but hey, it's here, so you can't count it out completely.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

With every precursor that gets announced, Harry Potter's chances of being a Best Picture nominee shrink. But while it's a longshot over there, it is the favorite here. The Academy will want to reward the Harry Potter series as a whole, and this seems like the category where it is most likely to win an Oscar. What is remarkable is that it would be only the second Harry Potter film to be nominated in this category, after Deathly Hallows Part 1. While that seems to be an indication that Deathly Hallows might not get nominated, remember that all those early nominations were fighting to get onto a list of three. An expanded category and a desire to award the series as a whole means Deathly Hallows 2 seems very sure of its spot here.

Hugo

Best Picture contenders aren't typically known for their visual effects, which means that when a film is in the running for that category, they try to nominate it here. Hugo is a film that is all about spectacle, and while it doesn't have the over-the-top visual effects of Transformers or Potter, it is a visually sumptuous film. But like Benjamin Button before it, the impressive visuals are only half the story; this is a film that the Academy will love, and they will try to nominate it in as many categories as possible. This is just one more opportunity for them to say “Yay, Hugo,” in addition to marking the first time that a Martin Scorsese movie will be nominated for Best Visual Effects.

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol

There are things that the Academy likes when it comes to visual effects: machines, aliens, monsters, and animals that do human stuff. Unless you count Tom Cruise in that last category, M:I 4 doesn't have any of those things. This is a fairly standard film; well executed, yes, but not with the kind of spectacle that you need to get a spot in this category. The fact that none of the previous Mission: Impossible films have shown up here essentially seals this film's fate. It might sneak in to the Sound Mixing or Sound Editing categories, but it doesn't have any serious shot here.

Real Steel

If you're looking for an unexpected film to make it into this category, look here. Yes, it is a kids' film that didn't do great at the box-office and isn't thought very highly of (I am sure I'm not the only one who assumed it was adapted from the game Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots). None of those things are likely to help it in this category, but what I've heard from people who have actually seen the film is that the robots are extremely well-done and that, in particular, the integration of the CGI and the real people is extraordinary. It's not a favorite by any stretch - and if it does get nominated it almost certainly won't win - but if the Academy wants to nominate something with robots and is tired of the Transformers series, they could make room for Real Steel.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

I don't think anybody expected that a prequel to Planet of the Apes would be one of the best-reviewed films of the year and one of the biggest hits of the summer. Nor was, I think, anybody expecting it to be one of the favorites to win Best Visual Effects, especially considering all of the previous films in this serious were more renowned for their makeup. But with all of the apes created through CGI, the effect is undeniably impressive, especially the work done with Caesar. This is a film that both features big CGI fight scenes and creates an emotionally resonant character, which is a double whammy that the Academy will not be able to resist.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

Sherlock is in the same boat as Mission: Impossible, and not just because they both love long titles with colons in them. The action scenes in Sherlock are certainly impressive, but they do not have the grandiosity or the wow factor to make it here. So when somebody tells you that A Game of Shadows isn't going to be a Best Visual Effects nominee, you should respond, “No shit, Ethan Hunt.”

Sucker Punch

This is an interesting film to show up on the short list, because it came out so long ago that I assume everybody had forgotten about it. But yes, if you are discussing the best Visual Effects of the year, you have to consider Sucker Punch, especially its dragon fight. But will dislike for the film in general, as well as its early release date, work against it? Also, if Zack Snyder's 300 didn't get nominated, why would this one? Maybe it's because it feels more like a video game than a movie, or that the characters feel even faker than the CGI, but I just don't see this film as a nominee. I can't rule it out completely, but it is certainly a long shot.

Super 8

This film is a toss-up for me. On the one hand it got very good reviews and did very good business. On the other, it seems to have mostly been forgotten about since it left theaters. Yes, the tech branches are better at remembering early releases than the actors and directors are, but considering that the bulk of the films on the short list came out around the same time, this smaller film could get lost. Plus, it is not a CGI driven film the way some of the other contenders are; the visual effects are impressive, but they are a throwback rather than trying to be something new and groundbreaking. If the voters love the film they will be predisposed to nominate it, but considering how many superheroes and robots it has to go against, its giant monster may not do the trick.

Thor

As usual, there are a pile of summer movies fighting it out in this category, all of them with impressive special effects, all of them working hard to set themselves apart from the others. Being one of the few non-sequel blockbusters of the summer will give this film an advantage, along with Captain America. The combination of being set in both a mythical world and the real world should also be an advantage; we saw when The Golden Compass won its award that having a CGI setting sometimes plays better than putting CGI into a real setting. The fact that this use of CGI is unique in this category should help Thor even more, although it didn't help Immortals even make it onto the shortlist. Will that be enough? It certainly helps.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

The third film in a series is always tricky, because we've pretty much seen all the tricks they're going to throw at us. Yes, Trannies 3 has some of the most mind blowing visual effects in cinematic history, but when you get down to it, it's a bunch of robots fighting each other. The first film in the series was nominated for this Oscar, but the sequel didn't even get nominated. Perhaps Dark of the Moon will have better luck. It will be a tough road for this one to convince the Academy that its robots are worth nominating again, especially up against the fancy new robots of Real Steel, but it is still a threat.

The Tree of Life

This is easily the strangest film to ever be a contender for Best Visual Effects. In the land of big-budget, big box-office action extravaganzas, this is a dream-like family drama that only cost $32 million and only grossed $13 million. If you were going by the quality of the effects alone, Tree of Life wouldn't stand a chance; the CGI early history of the world sequence is pretty cool, but it seems like something that would show up in a Best Visual Effects category. But if the members of the effects branch are desperate for something independent and artistically-minded than the rest of the dreck they usually nominate, they could rally behind Malick's film. I wouldn't be in the least surprised if The Tree of Life ends up nominated here.

X-Men: First Class

Is anybody else as baffled as I am that none of the X-Men movies have been nominated for any Oscars? It's astonishing, and would lead most people to assume that the latest installment also will be left empty handed. But remember that the expansion of the category is a game changer, leaving us with a wide open field that will allow for First Class to sneak in. The film is also different enough than the rest of the series that it own't suffer from sequel fatigue. Plus, it's gotten very good reviews, which is not crucial, but is definitely helpful. If the voters don't love the other superhero movies, they might fall for this one.

Did you get all that? Good. Here are many rankings of the films with the best chance of being nominated for Best Visual Effects at this years Oscars:

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
3. Hugo
4. Thor
5. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
6. X-Men: First Class
7. The Tree of Life
8. Real Steel
9. Captain America: The First Avenger
10. Super 8