Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
December 20, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com

\I'm pretty sure Watson's gay and Holmes couldn't find a...they're right behind me, aren't they

Ghost Protocol seems complex. And haunted.

Kim Hollis: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol became the first major title to debut in IMAX prior to a full theatrical release. It opened to $12.8 million in 425 locations, a per venue average of $30,083. How impressed are you by this result? What do you think of the IMAX only opening as a business strategy?

Edwin Davies: I am very, very impressed by that figure. Owing to the low venue count and what I perceived as a lack of enthusiasm for Mission : Impossible - Ghost Protocol among most moviegoers, I was expecting a sub-$10 million opening. Once the reviews proved to be overwhelmingly positive, I re-evaluated, but I still thought that it would top out at $9 million. That it wound up with nearly double the total of its nearest competition, breaking the record for the opening weekend in limited release in the process is very, very encouraging for the film's run.

I think that the IMAX strategy is an interesting one, but not one that could be employed on a regular basis. The relative sparseness of IMAX theatres makes this release feel like an exclusive event, so if this became a regular thing I could see subsequent releases using the strategy suffering from diminishing returns. I also think that any film hoping to replicate this result would have to have either a sizable in-built fanbase or a unique selling point to really draw people to spend the extra cash. The promise of insane action scenes in IMAX seems to have drawn people in - the media attention surrounding The Dark Knight Rises prologue can't have hurt, even if it was attached to a very small percentage of the screenings - and any future release in this manner would need that level of spectacle to justify it.

Brett Beach: I am impressed with the opening well-outside of single digits, I also think it's a smart strategy for the right film, but inherently, I think it has already corrupted itself. Initially, this was going to go out to only 300 or so screens - the true IMAX screens around the country, of which there are very few - but it wound up being puffed to around 425, including simply large screens that are being allowed to bill themselves as IMAX-esque, which I find almost as annoying as the glut of 3D nowadays. But all this is in service of some sour grapes, since I wish I was close enough to an actual IMAX that was showing this as the trailers have made the action look spectacular and worthy of an oversized viewing format. Along with Tinker Tailor, Young Adult, Girl Dragon Tattoo, and The Artist, this is in my top five hope to see over the holidays.

Bruce Hall: I too am impressed by this, particularly since as has been mentioned, enthusiasm for another Mission: Impossible flick had to be tepid at best. I am even more impressed by the cleverness involving the Batman preview, which no doubt brought in anyone who wasn't already excited about seeing Mr. Cruise run away from explosions in slow motion and climb a giant phallus on a screen the size of an aircraft carrier. It turns out that the Dark Knight prologue was in fact only showing on 70mm IMAX screens (of which I believe there are 40 or so in existence), so anyone interested who was not paying attention and attended Ghost Protocol at a conventional IMAX theater, or one of those FAUXMAX screens Brett mentioned were going to be sorely disappointed.

Sorry kids. But as long as you're here, why not watch Tom Cruise run away from explosions in slow motion and climb a giant phallus on a screen the size of an aircraft carrier?

To be fair, I'm not sure how many people were actually confused by that so it's hard for me to say with certainty that eight minutes of Batman showing on 10% of the IMAX screens showing Ghost Protocol had much of an effect on these numbers. I would agree in principle that any attempt to pull this off on a regular basis would be a challenge unless the strategy was reserved for a major event film. So, I imagine that following this result there will be serious consideration to a similar "sneak preview" IMAX strategy for upcoming tentpoles such as Superman and Spider-Man.

In fact, maybe they could show the Spider-Man trailer before The Three Stooges in IMAX. I'm sure that flick is gonna need all the help it can get.

David Mumpower: One of the mathematically intriguing aspects of this conversation is that when we make declarations such as "I had expected only $9 million", this ordinarily sounds like a splitting of hairs. For a title exhibited in only 425 locations, however, each million represents $2,350 more per location. In simpler terms, $13.4 million is almost 50% more demand. Ignoring scale, that is a staggering achievement.

With regards to Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, its box office fate is yet to be determined. The IMAX strategy employed here is a clever one due to the impeccable quality of the feature. A release pattern such as this only works if used in the same manner as pre-release sneaks such as has been done with We Bought a Zoo. The premise is the same. The intent is to build a buzz as the early adopters spread the word about how much they enjoy the film. The tactic works even better for IMAX only release in that the consumer is forced to pay the 50-100% price increase for the more expensive ticket if they want to watch the movie at first opportunity. The fourth Mission: Impossible title is in my opinion the best action film since the 1990s, making it a perfect choice for such a strategy. Ignoring The Matrix, a different type of movie, I haven't been this impressed by an action film since The Fugitive in 1993.

Tim Briody: Just when we thought we'd seen it all, along comes a new release tactic that works. Mission: Impossible 3 was solid but topped out at $133 million (as opposed to $215 million for MI2) largely on the idea that Tom Cruise went crazy. He's hasn't really had a huge hit since. The solid reviews and IMAX only hook have perhaps now positioned Ghost Protocol to potentially be the film of the holiday season in terms of box office once it goes wide next weekend. Of course, I'm sure the first nine minutes of The Dark Knight Rises attached to some screenings might have contributed a few bucks to the opening too.

Reagen Sulewski: The biggest risk with this strategy is that we've spent the last 20 years conditioning people to equate box office position with success. Mission: Impossible 4 is going to show up on Monday as the number three film with a number that people associate with bombs. There's always a chance that people won't consider the context and dismiss it as a bomb. The rapturous word-of-mouth should take care of that but this could have been dead on arrival.

Max Braden: Like 3D, the IMAX format should be used sparingly for when the film really merits it. MI4 does merit the large screen format, and I think audiences could tell that right from the trailer. With a solid lead in, you've got everyone coming out of the theater saying "that was amazing!" which is going to build word of mouth and increase the already eager viewers for the regular screens. This was well-played.

Not so pretty now, is she?

Kim Hollis: Young Adult expanded to 986 venues this week and had a weekend total of $3.4 million. Its per location average was $3,451. What do you think of this result? Do you consider the film to be a serious awards contender?

Edwin Davies: I think that it's got a strong chance at nominations in the Actress (for Charlize Theron), Supporting Actor (for Patton Oswalt) and Screenwriting (for Diablo Cody) categories since those seem to be the aspects of the film that are getting the most attention, but unless it picks up some serious steam over the next couple of weeks I can't see it being a contender in any other major categories. That's not a slight on the film, it's just a little lightweight, and in a year when Alexander Payne has a film out, I don't imagine that awards bodies will favor a Jason Reitman film, since Reitman is basically Alexander Payne-lite.

Brett Beach: I think that Paramount went too quick from single digits to almost 1,000 screens on this, although I can't fault them wanting to get out ahead of the wide openings and expansions happening over the next week. The trailer sold me on its dark humor and anti-heroine (as well as Patton Oswalt's sidekick role), but I realize this will not be everyone's cup of arsenic. To me, the opening indicates that this won't be Reitman's lowest grossing film, but neither will it rise to the height of Juno or the mid-level of Up in the Air. I think an Oscar nom for Theron is the only thing close to a "sure thing" and that the "buzz" has already moved on to others.

David Mumpower: Brett, I haven't watched the movie yet but something Ryan Mazie told me the other day explains the rush to 1,000 locations. This is clearly not a populist title as it features dislikable characters behaving badly but not humorously. Kim described it as a polarizing release in that section of the Weekend Wrap-Up and I feel that is the perfect description. If it is my movie to market, I make this same attempt to get out in front of potentially hostile word of mouth. Young Adult isn't going to behave like a lot of end-of-year awards contenders do as they platform so getting every dime they can as soon as they can is the logical play for Paramount. The per-location average of $3,451 supports this conclusion. Young Adult is a great example of a critics' darling that isn't for the average movie goer. If Paramount can get $25 million out of this, they will have done well.

Max Braden: I love Diablo Cody longtime, but right from the first and last time I've seen the trailer, I keep thinking that Charlize Theron (regardless of her talent) is really miscast for the dialogue in this pic. Add to that that the character doesn't appear to be sympathetic, and you've got a turnoff as an obstacle before minute one. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo has already positioned itself as the feel-bad movie of the season, so really you're only going to appeal to the filmfest crowd with a movie like this.

Reagen Sulewski: I think this kills almost all of the momentum for Oscars other than Theron. I never heard it as a serious Best Pic contender anyway, but if it had earned $80 million it would be difficult to ignore. This just puts it back to where it should have been - an indie film with a big star. It's our own expectations of what Theron/Reitman could bring it that are coloring this result.