Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
October 19, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Big Year, a movie that makes me embarrassed for Steve Martin and Owen Wilson, earned only $3.2 million over the weekend. What was the problem here?
Matthew Huntley: After first seeing the trailer for The Big Year, I remember saying to my friends, "What is that movie even about?" Right there, I think you can say the problem is nobody had a clear idea of what the story was; whether it was supposed to be a comedy or light-hearted drama; and if it was supposed to be a comedy, is it a gentle family one or silly slapstick? So, of the little marketing there is for it, it doesn't summarize the movie very well. On another note, there's hardly any marketing for it to begin with. I saw the movie yesterday and people I've talked to have never even heard of it. Did Fox have any faith in this movie at all? Considering the cast, it's surprising they didn't put more muscle behind the ad campaign. What's interesting is that it's a pretty good movie - light, sweet, pleasantly entertaining, and it probably could have had decent word-of-mouth - you know, if people actually were aware of it and saw it.
Bruce Hall: Matthew isn't kidding. If there was any kind of marketing campaign for this flick, I sure as hell missed it. It first appeared on my radar Friday morning when I saw someone making fun of it on a film blog. I thought it was a joke. Jack Black, Owen Wilson, Steve Martin and John Cleese in a movie together? Why have I not heard of this? Maybe it's because someone clearly assumed that putting Jack Black, Owen Wilson, Steve Martin and John Cleese in a movie together and letting them act like Jack Black, Owen Wilson, Steve Martin and John Cleese would be enough.
Apparently, it wasn't. I'm not saying it might not be a good movie, I'm saying that a big part of the problem appears to be that nobody had any idea the thing even existed. So I guess the moral of this story is that if you make a movie, and you want people to see it, then tell someone about it!
Samuel Hoelker: I really wish this movie did well/was good. We had "that Facebook movie" turn into an Oscar-winner; why couldn't "that birdwatching movie" have been good too? Imagine what topics would be turned into films from there!
Brett Beach: Problem A) Three funny gentlemen doing a PG-rated "middle-age crazy" comedy that wants to be - it would seem - Robin Williams-esque sentimental goo. Problem B) An early trailer that shows almost nothing about being a "birder" in a bird-watching competition, and a poster that does. What is this film about?
This will most likely be the lowest-grossing wide release of Martin's, Wilson's and, Black's careers to date. For Martin, this throws back to his worst openings, back to back in 1994, for A Simple Twist of Fate and Mixed Nuts (and the former of those only opened on 300 screens!).
Max Braden: This looks like a film that panders to viewers of TNT's "Men of a Certain Age" except these men don't even exercise. Is it about birdwatching? Man, I hope not. I get the impression it's like The Bucket List for guys having a mid-age crisis. White men, suck it up and get over yourselves! Didn't we move past this kind of movie after the Clinton era? And if you're going to release a movie like this, at least dump it at Christmas when moviegoers actually feel charitable.
Kim Hollis: I saw commercials for it and had no idea what I was looking at. I'm always inclined to think positively of Owen Wilson films, but not even this one really made me want to see it. Obviously, the rest of America reacted the same way.
Help Wanted
Kim Hollis: How desperately does Hollywood need a big blockbuster hit right now?
Bruce Hall: As badly as the Colts need Peyton Manning. About that bad.
Matthew Huntley: Badly, and unfortunately I think they'll have to wait until Puss In Boots to even get a taste of one. But the good news is November and December seem pretty strong (Immortals, Twilight, Mission: Impossible), so by the end of the year we'll hopefully have more than we count.
Brett Beach: Considering that The Help and Rise of the Planet of the Apes unexpectedly dominated August and that September was the highest grossing September ever, I am not worrying too much about H'wood. Puss in Boots will be a hit, possibly to blockbuster level (whivh I define as $150 million and above) And in only four weeks, pillow-biting, bed-breaking, vampire-baby making marital relations will be projected out onto 4,000 screens. Some money will be made there.
And apropos of almost nothing. Here is a bold prediction for December: Adventures of TinTin will set a record for most lopsided domestic to foreign gross of any major release in the last 20 years. Eighteen to 82 split, beating the current holder The Golden Compass. I feel that even War Horse will outgross it here in the States.
Max Braden: Hollywood needs a star, too, doesn't it? I mean, come on dudes, are we really still relying on Tom Cruise to save the day? (I'm actually looking forward to M:I).
Kim Hollis: I don't know that a blockbuster is necessary, exactly. I suspect that Paranormal Activity 3 is going to pick things up significantly this week, particularly since the film has been well positioned as a very scary, quality flick. It's not going to be a "blockbuster," probably, but it's going to be good enough to improve things at the box office.
David Mumpower: I was just looking over the list of releases over the past eight weeks and it's the Hollywood equivalent of a missing persons bulletin. If we take the re-release of The Lion King out of the picture, the numbers stagger me. Only 2 (!) out of 26 releases during that period have opened north of $20 million. If we drop the criteria down to $19 million, the number does double to four so we will use that as the baseline. Only 15% of titles over the past two months have debuted to $19+ million.
Here is what is absolutely terrifying, though. 17 out of 26 wide releases in that time frame failed to earn double digits. Other than the four respectable performers above, only five others are even adequate. Anything debuting under $10 million has to have a shoestring production budget and marketing campaign to approach breaking even. And the scary aspect is that the one bona fide "hit" out of the 26 titles, Real Steel, cost $110 million to make, meaning it's in the red as well. Words cannot describe how desperately the movie industry needs a bona fide blockbuster.
Whatcha watchin'?
Kim Hollis: What are your impressions of Fall Television so far? (You can include Doctor Who if you want.)
Edwin Davies: A couple of the new shows have impressed me quite a bit; Persons of Interest is establishing itself as a fun, pulpy piece of genre television, Up All Night, whilst a touch wobbly in the early going (I'm still unsure if Maya Rudolph is ever going to fit in with the rest of the show), is generally really funny, and I thought that the pilot of 2 Broke Girls showed a lot of promise. Mostly, I'm happier with the returning shows; Community and Parks & Rec both came back very strong, Modern Family tackled the hour long format better than most, and I'm just happy that I can say that Fringe has a fourth season. FOURTH! That's crazy to me. I think I'm going to hang back when it comes to a lot of the other shows and see which ones get good buzz further down the line.
As for Doctor Who, I thought that the season finale was pretty good, if only because it seems to suggest that the next season is going to be a little less concerned with overarching plots and obtuse storytelling. The apparent resolution of the Amy/Rory/River stuff and The Doctor faking his death seemed to be a nice caper to the season, which has been a lot less consistent than the last. To paraphrase the end of the episode: it got a little too big and loud, so maybe a movement towards quieter, smaller episodes is the way to go.
Reagen Sulewski: Looking at the state of my DVR, can a few of these shows fail and get cancelled? Charlie's Angels, I'm looking in your direction. (Editor's note: Charlie's Angels has in fact been cancelled since the time we had this discussion last week.)
Max Braden: I wanted to be a big trashy fun Kat Dennings fan with 2 Broke Girls, but by the second episode it seemed like the writers didn't even know what they wanted to do with the characters and were just writing in "adlib." It pains me even more because I really liked Mad Love, which was replaced by this show. I gave Up All Night and Unforgettable about half an episode before I dumped them; the first because of too much character bickering, the second because of Poppy's "acting." Revenge is kind of ridiculous, but I'll continue watching it because of Emily Van Camp, who I could see giving Jennifer Lawrence some serious competition on the big screen in the future.
I tuned in to New Girl for Zooey Deschanel of course, but it turns out the guys are the reason to keep watching. The show has some good one liners, but the characters are a little too caricature for the style of cinematography the show uses. And despite Person of Interest being the show that potentially interested me the most, I've been too busy watching the returning comedies to even play the first episode that is sitting on my dvr. I don't want it to go away, I just haven't been motivated to watch it.
Brett Beach: The retro theme encompassed by The Playboy Club and Charlie's Angels flamed out before really catching fire ( I saw a few minutes of the latter enough to see that it was ridiculous and self-serious, and although I had no interest in seeing the former, I was glad to see Amber Heard playing the lead role.) I would love to watch Homeland but am probably going to have wait for DVD season compilation. I am watching Up All Night and Two Broke Girls. I don't see myself getting all that involved with this year's crop of shows in general, as I feel like I have less interest in general in television at the moment. And as for Doctor Who? I have never seen a minute of any show from any iteration of the series. Nothing personal, just never have felt an overwhelming desire to jump in. Same goes for Torchwood, although I could see myself watching it en masse at some point.
Kim Hollis: The only new show I've really stuck with is Revenge, which I'm really enjoying. I liked Emily Van Camp on Everwood and I think she's pretty terrific here. It's good, over-the-top fun. As far as other stuff, Modern Family is great this season, Castle is solid, and I was very pleased to have three episodes of Pirate King Archer. With regards to Doctor Who, I enjoyed this most recent season a great deal and think that the finale was very nicely handled (even if I did know how the Doctor would pull off his trick). Honestly, though, I'm watching less TV than ever unless you count the St. Louis Cardinals.
David Mumpower: My three year streak of being the kiss of death for new programs may come to end this year, but I did make out with a couple of short lived entities first. Charlie's Angels made me wish Minka Kelly talked less, and I *like* Minka Kelly, especially when she's macking on Tim Riggins. Free Agents had a solid cast and offered the superior version of the afore-mentioned Maya Rudolph character on Up All Night, this one portrayed by Anthony Stewart Head. Even so, studio support matters so the latter show, which I dropped after two episodes, will be around for at least a season, probably several of them. Meanwhile, Kathryn Hahn, Christina Applegate's comedic support in Anchorman, is left jobless.
I also tried Two Broke Girls and The New Girl, because I like girls. I was surprised by how dirty the former show was in a less formulaic way than Two and a Half Men and its ilk on CBS Monday night. I also really like Kat Dennings as an actress, but I still haven't watched another episode yet. It just wasn't special. It was night and day better than the creator's actual show, Whitney. I had to find to make it through the pilot. The forced studio audience laughter made me wonder if any of them contemplated an insurrection that including ripping down the applause sign and maybe devouring a couple of cast members. The funniest person in the New Girl pilot was Damon Wayans Jr., so I'll just keep watching Happy Endings instead of this dreck. I love Zoey Deschanel as a rule but I didn't love her enough to find Elf tolerable and this is even worse. If you knew my feelings about Elf, you would do a doubletake at this revelation.
Finally, as Kim mentioned, clearly the best new series this season is Revenge. It gives grrrreat Veronica Mars. Well, it's more of a Veronica Mars for Dummies but since there isn't any other type of Veronica Mars filming new episodes, I will take what I can get. Emily VanCamp was always the glue on Everwood and while I'm not sold on her as a merciless vixen quite yet, the show is so campy and well written that I don't really care. I question the finite nature of the storytelling given that there are only about 30 people in that picture upon whom she can gain revenge. I view it as the same situation as Flash Forward where the producers can worry about that if they get that far, which Flash Forward most assuredly did not. Until then, I will continue to enjoy Gabriel Mann's campy performance as billionaire misfit Nolan Ross. I have trouble believing that this is the same by the numbers agent who was so shockingly assassinated in The Bourne Supremacy.