Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
June 7, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Brett Beach: I felt fatigued by the release schedule before summer even started. I feel like there are too many and the average consumer is going to start tuning out very soon, the same way they have actively opted to seek non-3D versions of the May releases. I liked David's take on the possible performance of the June slate and The Green Lantern in particular. I part ways however and say that it looks terrible, with nothing to redeem it for any excitement for me, and any success will be directly a result of Ryan Reynolds' charm, likability and hotness. I feel, nonetheless, that it will go down and go down hard.
Tom Houseman: Thor is very, very lucky that it got the jump on Captain America and Green Lantern. Will either of those bomb? No, especially since they have big name leading men. But I don't picture either of them being smash hits, especially since Captain A is really just a setup for next year's Avengers movie.
Bruce Hall: I think fatigue has already set in, but I don't think movie goers are tired enough of super hero flicks to stay away entirely. Audiences will forgive gluttony to a point, as long as the product is entertaining. My theory is that at some point, two or three of these in a row are going to bomb, simply because they will happen to all be terrible movies. And that will be the time when studios and audiences alike are going to scatter like roaches. Will it be this summer? I kind of doubt it, but I see I'm not the only one who's just not getting a damn thing from these Green Lantern trailers. If that film's box office performance is as uninspiring as the previews, we may be having this conversation again very soon.
Reagen Sulewski: I'm far less worried about fatigue setting in and more about whether these films are any good. Green Lantern appears to be a dead franchise walking, and Captain America has some serious uncanny valley problems to get over, as well as the inherent cheesiness of the idea. It's summer - there's room out there for lots of blockbusters. But they've got to not suck.
Edwin Davies: I agree with Bruce that fatigue won't set in in earnest until we get a run of terrible comic book movies that cause people to start actively avoiding superhero movies. Whilst there have undoubtedly been some really terrible superhero movies in recent years - we've already mentioned two of them, X-Men: The Last Stand and Wolverine, in our previous discussion - but they generally tend to be balanced out by the good or great ones. Considering the quality of both Thor and X-Men: First Class, I can't see people being put off seeing The Green Lantern or Captain America just because they are superhero movies, but they will if they turn out to be dreadful.
Kim Hollis: I agree with the comments that "fatigue" has already settled in. Four superhero movies in summer is simply too many. I don't care what any comic geek says. The studios need to stop trying to force the issue by making second-tier comic characters like Jonah Hex into mainstream characters. They're not popular in the comics universe, and they're not going to be popular in the real world, either. With that said, I know that Green Lantern is a beloved character for comic fans, though I've never seen the appeal. And the trailers/previews for the upcoming film look like a train wreck. The movie forcibly reminds me of Chronicles of Riddick for some reason - weird-looking sci-fi with a theoretically well-liked lead actor in the primary role. And if I feel this way and I *know* The Green Lantern, I can't imagine the response from people who are unfamiliar with the character. A collective shrug, I suppose. At least Captain America is a decently known quantity, but I don't think it looks particularly good, either.
David Mumpower: I feel that superhero fatigue exists beyond the usual idea that each movie is its own entity. 2011 has already had too many animated family films and when Green Lantern enters theaters in a couple of weeks, that will be the third comic book title in less than two months. I honestly have no idea how that makes sense to anyone involved, and this has always been my concern since Marvel announced the intention to release X-Men: First Class during the same summer as Thor and Captain America. It's just too much of the same thing when each property needs time to breathe. Thor got out in front of this a bit by being first, but I do think that First Class was perceived as a less important title than the other two Marvel releases this summer.
As for Green Lantern, I have a hard time forecasting its fate because nothing about the movie passes the laugh test for me. I've tried to understand the appeal of it, because I know that sales of the Sinestro Wars and Blackest Night comics were strong. I just can't do it, though. Green-colored imaginary weapons are something a person should outgrow around the time they hit puberty. I cannot see the appeal of this project and I've been TRYING to do so. As such, I've tried to neutralize my opinion by focusing on what others think of it. What has surprised me is that most comments I see about Green Lantern are negative. I'm expecting another The Hulk. Maybe superhero movies shouldn't focus on green characters so much. Tough break, Oliver Queen.
Kim Hollis: When you look back at May box office, what stands out in your mind as the biggest story?
Brett Beach: The record Memorial Day Weekend numbers. Even with the "underperformance" of Cuddly Jack Black 2, there was the ridiculous numbers from Hangover Thailand, and strong holdovers from Yet Another Pirates Movie, and Kristen Wiig's Deserved Critical and Commercial Breakthrough. I almost felt like I was there in the movie theaters with the spotty air conditioning and poor picture quality!
Bruce Hall: I'll go with The Hangover. I was not expecting those kinds of numbers. Just mind boggling. But I'm apparently the only person in America who still thinks Wedding Crashers is the funniest R-rated comedy of the last ten years, so what do I know?
Reagen Sulewski: Personally, I think the Hangover story is a bit overrated, given how quickly it's going to die on the vine and how far short it's going to fall from the first film. Opening weekends are flashy and fun, but final total matters.
But the real story is about how the various franchises were managed mis- or otherwise in May. Studios have been shown that you have to come in with ideas and quality (at least perceived quality), and "hey, we're here" doesn't cut it after film #2.
Edwin Davies: Bridesmaids is the one that stands out for me purely by dint of being a genuine and very pleasant surprise. The under/over performance of Pirates and The Hangover aren't that surprising given the directions of those franchises, whereas Bridesmaids not only being a hit but being a pretty terrific comedy was something I wasn't expecting.
Kim Hollis: Bridesmaids is my answer as well, perhaps because it's all I've heard my female friends talk about with regard to movies. They may as well not exist in a world with Pirates 4, Hangover II or Kung Fu Panda 2. The only movie on their radar has been Bridesmaids. The fact that it's well on its way to possibly $150 million has to be considered one of the more pleasant surprises so far this year - and speaks to the fact that there is a truly underserved demographic out there in women and that if some studio exec ever figures out the magic answer to reaching them consistently, there is a *lot* of money to be made.
David Mumpower: I also have the opening weekend of The Hangover II on my short list. While its final box office tally may not surpass the original, those first few days were jaw dropping. While I like Bridesmaids as a story, it's not a big enough performer to qualify as the talk of May. For me, what is noteworthy about the period is the meta aspect. After early 2011 box office was an absolute disaster with regards to domestic box office, we had that sudden change with Fast Five (an April title, I realize) then Thor and finally The Hangover II. After a shaky start to the year, we unexpectedly had business as usual for the start of summer. That's a relief to the studios.
Of course, the ancillary issue here is that studios have made the decision to prioritize known properties, whether those are sequels or adaptations from other media. The scattershot reception exemplifies the fact that with movie production costs spiraling out of control, even playing it safe isn't very safe right now. If international revenue weren't spiking, people would be going broke right now. That's something we will follow carefully during the summer box office campaign.