Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
May 23, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: As far as the film itself goes, it's a solid result, but it's possibly a sign of nascent or growing franchise fatigue for the series as a whole, though we won't know for certain until we see how it fares over the next few weeks. (Personally, I think it is going to drop precipitously next week against Kung Fu Panda 2.) I can only speak for myself and others I have spoken to, but the second and third Pirates films destroyed a lot of the goodwill from the first. A lot of people have made the comparison to the Shrek series, where the dreadful third film made people unwilling to take a chance on the moderately better fourth, but in this instance the critical consensus seems to be that the fourth Pirates film is just as bad as the third. (And the second, which I really, really hated.)
Let's look at the history of the series; The Curse of the Black Pearl was a surprise hit and took $305 million, Dead Man's Chest was a phenomenon that took $423 million, but At World's End fell considerably to $309 million. That's a drop of of nearly $120 million in the space of a year, though obviously it still attained a great final total and, within the context of the first three films, it could be argued that the second film was an aberration, and that just over $300 million was the norm for the series. This result suggests that it might have been the start of a downward trend, and whilst I don't think we'll see quite that same size of a drop between the third and fourth films (unless On Stranger Tides has a ridiculously poor multiplier of 2.0) I won't be surprised if it ends up at around the $250 million mark. This would make it easily the lowest grossing of the series, even though inflation and 3D prices means that it costs more for people to see this film than the previous three. If nothing else, this result suggests that considerably fewer people went to see it than parts two and three.
Matthew Huntley: The result was about in line with my expectations and it validated the vibe I got from my fellow audience members when the trailer first showed before Tron: Legacy back in December (I believe it was a feeling of "meh"). While this installment will likely become another profitable venture for Disney (once you take into account its international numbers), the studio desperately needs a new franchise. While I've yet to see On Stranger Tides, speaking about it as a franchise only, it has played out and it's unlikely it will have the kind of resurgence Fast Five gave to The Fast and the Furious (which is still holding strong in its fourth weekend by the way). So I would urge Disney to hang up its Pirates hat and move on with some class before it embarrasses itself. Johnny Depp as Jack Sparrow is simply no longer a fresh idea.
Max Braden: On paper, that's a big number - it's just on the cusp of being in the top 20 biggest opening weekends of all time. But it still *feels* less than stellar. And looking again at the trailer, the movie just gives off that vibe. You've got a swashbuckler adventure without much swashbuckling. You've got a comedic franchise entry without much comedy. And you've got an essentially ensemble movie without the original ensemble. While Johnny Depp certainly sells the Pirates movies, in the way that The Rock help boost the opening of Fast Five to its franchise's biggest opening, the absence of Keira Knightley and Orlando Bloom siphoned off some of the opening for this fourth Pirates movie. You just get the feeling that this time they're really selling the brand and not the substance. And that's if people notice. I mentioned that I had seen On Stranger Tides to a (younger) friend and she responded, "There's a fourth Pirates of the Caribbean movie already?" Even more disappointing to me is that the fourth Indiana Jones movie - while bringing back both Ford and Allen - actually looked bad, but managed to earn over $150 million by the end of Memorial Day Monday when it opened three years ago, and passed $200 million in the middle of its second weekend. On Stranger Tides is going to have to conjure up some magic to pull anywhere near that in the coming weeks.
Shalimar Sahota: While this opening is by no means awful, it simply cannot help but be compared to the former sequels, which is where the figure starts to look a tad disappointing. I really thought this had a chance of opening over the $100 million mark. Looks like Dead Man's Chest and At World's End have clearly left their marks. The comparisons to the Shrek sequels are valid, but as Edwin has pointed out, the reviews for On Stranger Tides have not been kind, and from those that did like it they sounded like they were just one step away from the fence. I myself found the film to be merely okay. Nevertheless, Disney put together something resembling a story and still got people to go see it, scoring the highest opening weekend of the year so far. Any other studio would kill to have an opening like this. In the long run, it may finish shy of $300 million domestically, but it'll be a struggle getting there.
Reagen Sulewski: Usually, a sequel's box office is a referendum on the last film in the series. With At World's End turning a huge portion of consumers off, some slip back was inevitable. This opening shows strength in the franchise if they can rehab it.
Jason Lee: I think David was absolutely right in his Weekend Forecast to compare this film to Shrek Forever After. Whatever goodwill was generated by the franchise has been killed off by the last two films; all that Disney had to rely on was whatever goodwill could be generated by the character of Captain Jack Sparrow. Personally, I think most people were possessed by a "eh, why not?" mindset when buying tickets to On Stranger Tides. It wasn't going to be a "great movie" - heck, it likely wasn't even going to be a "good" movie. But it promised to be a "fun" movie. After all, Jack Sparrow, pirates, swordfights, treasure, ships, water, battles... eh, why not?
David Mumpower: I am the antithesis of Edwin in that I loved the second Pirates movie. I was with most consumers about the third entry in the series, which had some positives but also far too much Jack Sparrow. Literally. I am someone who should be fired up about a new Pirates title and the fact that I wasn’t made me fear for the worst here. While many analysts were talking about an opening weekend well in excess of $100 million, I wasn’t even certain that this would do $75 million.
The combination of the lackluster trailers Matthew mentioned, the artistic excesses from At World’s End and a general feeling that the franchise needed a break had me worried that we may see a Shrek Forever After type of decline. That franchise fell from $121.6 million with its third entry to $70.8 million for the most recent one, an in-series decline of 42% or $50.8 million in actual dollars. On Stranger Tides has fallen from the $114.8 million At World’s End grossed in its first three days to $90.2 million. That’s a drop of only 21%, half of what happened to Shrek, and an actual dollars decline of $24.6 million. As strange as this sounds, if I work at Disney, I am ecstatic right now.