Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
April 23, 2011

Maybe he shouldn't have rolled in bird seed.

Madea's Big Happy Family

Tyler Perry assumes his alter ego once more and the result is $10.4 million on Friday, good for second place. This is a step back from the last Madea movie, 2009's Madea Goes To Jail, which opened to $14.7 million and had a $41 million weekend, a 2.78 weekend multiplier. Easter is not a very good box office day (as we'll discuss later), so things are not looking very good for the Big Happy Family, especially since Perry's Why Did I Get Married Too opened over Easter weekend last year to $29.3 million, with a 2.4 multiplier. However, the presence of Madea should offset that a little bit and it will likely be neck and neck with [tm:4998_]Rio[/tm] for the weekend crown. Madea's Family Reunion should have a weekend of $28.3 million.

[tm:4680_]Water for Elephants[/tm]

Book adaptation Water for Elephants earned $7 million on Friday, which will make it the most successful non-Twilight movie, non-Harry Potter movie for [bp:6308_]Robert Pattinson[/bp] in nearly no time at all. That said, it's not in store for a very good remainder of the weekend. Even if Saturday is good, Sunday business will hurt it severely. Look for a weekend of $16.8 million.

[tm:5159_]African Cats[/tm]

Finally, Earth Day release African Cats earned $3.3 million on Friday, placing fifth. In 2009, Earth had a Friday take of $2.9 million (after opening on Wednesday), while last year's Oceans earned $2 million (after a Thursday release). With Earth Day falling on Friday, it's no wonder its opening topped both of those films, but things won't really work in its favor beyond that. Call it a weekend of $7.2 million.


Wait, Madea's Big Happy Family was second on Friday? Yup. Holding onto first place on Friday was a Good Friday-inflated Rio, with $10.9 million, that's a, well, 5% increase from last Friday. Keep in mind that Good Friday is a really good box office day, while Easter Sunday is pretty much an anti-holiday, so it'll probably even out. Last Easter weekend included the second weekend of How to Train Your Dragon, where it saw a 8.9% decline but had a weekend multiplier of 2.6, (whereas opening weekend was a 3.6) and dropped 33% for the entire weekend. The same fate probably awaits Rio, but it should hold on just enough to be on top for the weekend since Madea came in with a bit less than anticipated. Give Rio a second weekend of $29.9 million.

Notable Holdovers[/tm]

Meanwhile, [tm:5152_]Scream 4[/tm] is the anti-Rio, dropping 66% from last Friday to $2.8 million. That's...not good and the weekend won't help matters. Scream 4 should have a second weekend of $6.7 million.

Finally, perhaps predictably, [tm:4976_]Hop[/tm] is up 98% from last Friday to $4.6 million (though it slides a spot from third to fourth). The rest of the weekend is a bit of a wild card, as there's never really been an Easter-themed animated movie. We'll err on the side of caution and expect it to tank a bit on Sunday (but not after a really good Saturday) and give it a surprisingly solid weekend of $14.2 million.