Academy Awards Analysis
Academy Awards Analysis
By David Mumpower
January 25, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Stating the obvious, this year is going to be a competition between The King’s Speech, True Grit and The Social Network. What we learned this morning is that The Social Network garnered eight nominations including four in major categories, True Grit surpassed it with ten nominations including five in major categories, and The King’s Speech garnered a whopping 12. If a dozen nominations seems like a remarkable total to you, that’s because it is.
Only 11 previous awards contenders have earned more Oscars nominations. Thirteen others have equaled the total; some of the titles include prior heavyweights such as Dances with Wolves, Schindler’s List and Ben Hur. We are talking about some of the most prestigious movies ever made. Last year’s main combatants, Avatar and eventual Best Picture winner The Hurt Locker, were awarded “only” nine nominations each. The King’s Speech is in rarefied air in terms of volume of nominations. As such, it’s the big winner of the morning. Out of the 24 previous feature films to collect at least 11 nominations, only nine failed to win Best Picture. Before you go making bets with your friends about The King’s Speech winning Best Picture, however, consider that the last movie to gather at least this many nominations was The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, the recipient of 13 two years ago. Only two movies in the history of the industry, Titanic and All About Eve, earned more nominations, yet the Best Picture winner was not The Curious Case of Benjamin Button but rather Slumdog Millionaire, a 10 times nominated title. This would be good news for True Grit and The Social Network.
That’s the big picture perspective. In terms of individual nominations, things largely went according to plan. Out of the nine categories we have been tracking in BOP’s Power Rankings, every nomination was listed in our most recent updates. What this tells you is that there weren’t a lot of jaw dropping revelations in this morning’s announcements. Instead, we had calmer moments of “Oh, that’s interesting.” Chief among these is the nomination of Academy darling Javier Bardem for Biutiful, an otherwise dismissed movie. Conversely, John Hawkes of Deadwood fame has been a role player his entire career and his part in Winter’s Bone is relatively brief. The Academy rightfully rewarded a magnificent performance rather than punish him for his relative obscurity. To a larger point, Winter’s Bone itself is a triumph of overachieving. The awards season darling has earned four Academy Awards nominations, which represents about one nomination per $500,000 of its $2 million production budget.
One of the most intriguing aspects of this morning’s announcement is how the presence of one teen girl impacted both Actress categories. We had engaged in some staff debate over where to slot Hailee Steinfeld of True Grit. She is ostensibly the lead in True Grit, and her actual camera time in the movie justifies this assertion. Still, when nominations were announced, we learned that the Academy had placed her squarely in Best Supporting Actress, which is good news to her, odd as that may sound. As several BOP staffers have noted in recent weeks, Steinfeld has a better chance of winning in Best Supporting Actress than Best Actress. Rather than earning a prestigious nomination in a category Natalie Portman will probably win, Steinfeld is now positioned to compete with Melissa Leo et al in an attempt to become one of the youngest Oscars winners ever.
Steinfeld’s absence in Best Actress frees up a spot for someone, probably Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine, to earn a nomination. Williams will not win, but this boosts her credentials as a two-time nominee, building her overall body of work for the next time she is nominated. She could win that time as Academy perception is cumulative. Conversely, Steinfeld’s presence in Best Supporting Actress kicks someone out, and the victim here is almost certainly Mila Kunis of Black Swan. Apparently, Hailee Steinfeld likes Dawson’s Creek more than That 70s Show.
In Best Picture, everyone knew that there were three or four features up for the final two spots. 127 Hours was the title I expected to be excluded since it’s largely a premise and an acting performance rather than a great film. Instead, the marvelous The Town got shafted. Fledgling director Ben Affleck has now created two brilliant films in Gone Baby Gone and this and all he has to show for it is supporting acting nominations for Amy Ryan and Jeremy Renner. The Town was one of the best movies of 2010 and it deserved much more respect from the Academy than it was given. And while we’re on the subject of the Supporting Actor category, Andrew Garfield of The Social Network is probably going to be viewed as one of the bigger snubs this season. I’ve always been of the opinion that his performance was overrated and in fact not that good, but his absence in the category in favor of Hawkes did surprise me, even if I’m certain this was the right choice and an easy call, really.
Personally, I was most surprised by the results of Best Director. David O. Russell, perhaps best known outside of Hollywood for a viral video clip in which Lily Tomlin expresses her hatred to him, earns his first Academy Awards nomination. Is this long overdue? Probably. Russell was considered a heavy favorite to earn a nomination for 1999’s Three Kings, but he got shut out that year. In the interim, his only feature was I Heart Huckabees, a well received but quirky film that lost favor with the Academy as word spread of how little control Russell had on the set.
All of that is pointless insider stuff that only matters to voters; here is what is important. Russell, a man with a negative stigma, beat out Danny Boyle and Christopher Nolan to earn a nomination. Boyle’s absence is understandable. Let’s face it. On the heels of Slumdog Millionaire, the Academy has thrown him enough love to last a lifetime. Nolan, on the other hand, continues to be criminally overlooked by Oscars voters. Yes, he was nominated in the Original Screenplay category for Inception, and yes, the movie itself is nominated for eight awards including Best Picture. Even so, we already know that Inception will not win Best Picture and I’m about to point out something that will make Batman fanboys froth. Christopher Nolan, the director of Memento, The Prestige, The Dark Knight, and Inception, has never been nominated for Best Director. An argument could be made that he is the best working director in our industry today. Even his harshest critics (does Christopher Nolan even have critics?) would acknowledge that he is on the short list for that discussion, yet somehow David O. Russell, mortal enemy of Lily Tomlin, has one more nomination for Best Director than him. I understand the voting process and how this could happen, but this situation reflects the inherent danger of group think. Inception is probably the most complex action movie ever made yet it is critically revered and a global box office triumph. The director of this film has been deemed inferior to the guy who made a mediocre Rocky knock-off. This is madness.
With regards to the rest of the nominations, the most notable remaining nomination is probably The Illusionist for Best Animated Feature. If you are wondering what this is, I am not the person to tell you. All I know is that while I spent the body of awards season debating between Tangled and Despicable Me as the third nominee in a category with two foregone conclusions, How to Train Your Dragon and Toy Story 3, my wife the animation buff looks at me with amusement in her eyes. Her voice was so patronizing each and every time when she said, “Oh honey, you’re wasting your time. It will be The Illusionist.” My mouth agape as I looked at her, I wondered what The Illusionist was, arguing that if some unknown were to enter the equation, it would be Tales from Earthsea, a mediocre project from Goro Miyazaki, son of animated legend Hayao Miyazaki. She gave me that “You’re so silly” face and the conversation usually ended there. For months on end, I have eagerly anticipated the moment when I could tell her that she was a fool to believe that the NOT Paul Giamatti version of The Illusionist would earn a nod in one of the greatest years ever for animation. This paragraph represents a bitter pill for me to swallow.
In the lower categories, the ones that you always pick the most gripping title to determine a winner, the most notable turn of events is that Waiting for Superman was shut out of the Best Documentary category. This does open the door for a potentially brilliant moment during the actual Academy Awards presentation. Exit Through the Gift Shop is now the favorite in the category, assuming it is not (ironically) too commercial. Were it to win, street artist Banksy would be afforded the opportunity to shock and surprise us all with some sort of acceptance speech. Given how much attention his opening credits for The Simpsons garnered, the Academy frankly owes it to the world to give him a viewing audience of a billion people to see what he can do with it.
Overall, awards season is going to come down to the nominations of The King’s Speech and its championing by the Weinsteins versus the box office of True Grit and the overriding appeal of the Coen Brothers versus the timeliness of The Social Network. BOP will continue to update our power rankings over the next few days to reflect this horse race. Thanks to Anthony Daquano, Josh Spiegel, Tom Houseman, Reagen Sulewski and Kim Hollis for their diligence in keeping them updated so accurately this year.
Here are the nominations for the 2011 Academy Awards:
Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
James Franco in “127 Hours”
Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”
Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
Animated Feature Film
“How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
“The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
“Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich
Art Direction
“Alice in Wonderland”
Production Design: Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
“Inception”
Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug Mowat
“The King's Speech”
Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Judy Farr
“True Grit”
Production Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
Cinematography
“Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
“Inception” Wally Pfister
“The King's Speech” Danny Cohen
“The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
“True Grit” Roger Deakins
Costume Design
“Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood
“I Am Love” Antonella Cannarozzi
“The King's Speech” Jenny Beavan
“The Tempest” Sandy Powell
“True Grit” Mary Zophres
Directing
“Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
“The Fighter” David O. Russell
“The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
“The Social Network” David Fincher
“True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Documentary (Feature)
“Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz
“Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
“Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
“Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
“Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley
Documentary (Short Subject)
“Killing in the Name” Nominees to be determined
“Poster Girl” Nominees to be determined
“Strangers No More” Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon
“Sun Come Up” Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger
“The Warriors of Qiugang” Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon
Film Editing
“Black Swan” Andrew Weisblum
“The Fighter” Pamela Martin
“The King's Speech” Tariq Anwar
“127 Hours” Jon Harris
“The Social Network” Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter
Foreign Language Film
“Biutiful” Mexico
“Dogtooth” Greece
“In a Better World” Denmark
“Incendies” Canada
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Algeria
Makeup
“Barney's Version” Adrien Morot
“The Way Back” Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
“The Wolfman” Rick Baker and Dave Elsey
Music (Original Score)
“How to Train Your Dragon” John Powell
“Inception” Hans Zimmer
“The King's Speech” Alexandre Desplat
“127 Hours” A.R. Rahman
“The Social Network” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Music (Original Song)
“Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
“I See the Light” from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3" Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Best Picture
“Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
“The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
“Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
“The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
“The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
“127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
“The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
“Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
“True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers
Short Film (Animated)
“Day & Night” Teddy Newton
“The Gruffalo” Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
“Let's Pollute” Geefwee Boedoe
“The Lost Thing” Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
“Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)” Bastien Dubois
Short Film (Live Action)
“The Confession” Tanel Toom
“The Crush” Michael Creagh
“God of Love” Luke Matheny
“Na Wewe” Ivan Goldschmidt
“Wish 143” Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite
Sound Editing
“Inception” Richard King
“Toy Story 3” Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
“Tron: Legacy” Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
“True Grit” Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
“Unstoppable” Mark P. Stoeckinger
Sound Mixing
“Inception” Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
“The King's Speech” Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
“Salt” Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
“The Social Network” Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
“True Grit” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
Visual Effects
“Alice in Wonderland” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
“Hereafter” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
“Inception” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
“Iron Man 2” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
“127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
“The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
“Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
“True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
Writing (Original Screenplay)
“Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
“The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
“Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
“The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
“The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler