Weekend Forecast for January 14-16, 2010
By Reagen Sulewski
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Leading the way is Green Hornet, the adaptation of the radio and movie serial/comic/TV show about a masked newspaperman and playboy that fights crime with the help of an Asian "sidekick" (and is not, one must note, Green Lantern. Green Hornet is actually a good character). Directed by Michel Gondry of Eternal Sunshine fame, the film stars Seth Rogen as Britt Reid, the title character, and Jay Chou as Kato, the guy that does all the work and fighting.
Almost a parody of serials, the film seems to be embracing the inherent ridiculousness of the concept, with Rogen being almost an afterthought to Chou's actual ass-kicker – in the same way that Bruce Lee was really the hero of the 1960s TV series (Van Wholliams?). Crazy props, elaborate workshops and gadget filled cars abound, making this one of the pulpiest pulp films since Dick Tracy. Also in the cast are Cameron Diaz as a love interest and Christoph Waltz as the villain Chudnofsky, cashing in on his Oscar win.
If the tone of the film feels a bit like Pineapple Express or Superbad, that's for good reason as Rogen and writing partner Evan Goldberg have final credit on this (it's gone through numerous iterations in Hollywood over the years). It's essentially a stoner action super hero comedy – Harold & Kumar Fight Evil – with aspirations towards being an indie art film. That huge mix of influences could make for a confused muddle of a film, but that's for word of mouth-to-decide. For the release weekend, what matters is that it looks like a goofy action film. That's limiting for mass audiences, but Rogen has a proven following when he's not being deliberately off-putting (i.e. Observe and Report). Filmed in 3D, because of course it is, and debuting in 3,584 venues, Green Hornet should match Rogen's recent efforts and win the weekend with a $28 million debut.
The Dilemma has a lot of top line talent for a January release, including Vince Vaughn, Kevin James and director Rob Howard. While I'm mostly over the idea of the time of year that films are released being indicative of their quality, it looks to be more than just circumstantial evidence here. The clothesline the plot hangs on is Vaughn discovering that James' wife (Winona Ryder) is cheating on him (now that's a stretch), and whether he should tell him or not. In practice, the film seems to actually be about Vince Vaughn's urinary difficulties.
Rarely has a film seemed to actively try to discourage viewership with its ads like this. To flip a famous phrase – these are the jokes, people? Controversy raged earlier in its campaign with an ad that had Vaughn call a car “gay” - little did we know that this would count as one of the funnier things the film would come up with. This is a film where you wonder what attracted people who have proven themselves capable of better material, or just what went wrong with it in production.
Although Vaughn and James have proven themselves of turning inferior material into hits before – Couples Retreat and Paul Blart come racing into mind – but The Dilemma seems a non-joke too far. There's literally nothing to laugh at in these commercials, so if you're buying a ticket to this film, you're testing your fandom for either of the two leads to a tremendous extent. That faith will almost certainly not be rewarded, and I believe few will test it. I look for a start of just $13 million here.
This brings us to our returning films, many of which are seeing significant expansions. Even films like True Grit, already in over 3,000 venues, are getting a bump. The Coen Brothers film slipped past Little Fockers to take top spot in its third weekend, surging past $110 million in the process. While this bump of a few hundred screens isn't likely to make much of a difference at this point, it's no doubt part of a strategy to get the film as wide as possible in advance of Oscar nominations. It should hold on for about $9 million this weekend.
The biggest expansions this weekend, however, belong to The King's Speech and Black Swan, two other major contenders for year-end awards. While The King's Speech's success isn't that surprising, given its near begging for audience approval, Black Swan's success continues to be baffling in its magnitude. With $60 million in the bank and awards sure to come, it looks for all the world like a film that's going to earn over $125 million – and might I repeat that this is a psycho-sexual drama about ballet? Darren Aronofsky, you mad genius. Both these films add around 800 screens this weekend, though in The King's Speech's case, this is more than doubling its count. Black Swan should bump up slightly to around $9 million this weekend, with The King's Speech's big push bringing it up to around $8 million.
The Fighter is quickly seeming an afterthought in the Oscar race, at least in box office terms. Already at what one would call a full expansion, it's not showing the legs of other films in the race, though its $60 million in the bank to date isn't shabby. It's going to need a lot of nominations in two weeks to bump back up. Give it $5 million this weekend, putting it in company with Tron: Legacy and Season of the Witch.