Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
October 25, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Paranormal Activity 2 became the second consecutive mega-opener as it earned $40.7 million. What do you take from this result?
Josh Spiegel: That Paramount Pictures knew exactly what they were doing with this movie. I made a comment on my Twitter feed last week that, with the exception of one ad, I'd seen absolutely no advertising for Paranormal Activity 2. Were it not for the film being a promoted trending topic on Twitter, I could have easily forgotten it existed, let alone that it would be released this past weekend. Obviously, mine was a very unique experience, as the film hit, and hit big. Really, there's only one question to ask: how many more hours will it take for Paramount to announce the third film in the franchise?
Shalimar Sahota: I would also agree with Josh that I've not actually seen a single TV ad for this here in the UK, and yet early estimates have it at opening with £6 million. After the first film people clearly wanted more, and were already aware of the release. Those in the know didn't need any advertising; they were already sold on the promise of more scares. Some have gone so far as to dissecting the trailers looking for clues about what's going on this time around.
$40 million+ I would not have expected and is an outstanding total. I think we're obviously seeing the Saw effect from five/six years ago. Cheap film, with no name stars comes out of nowhere, scores big, and the sequel manages the same. I'm sure it'll likely hold well over the Halloween weekend and against Saw 3D as well. Also, I thought the "Demand It" release strategy of the first film via its official site was an unusually great idea that also generated huge buzz. Although it was unlikely to happen with the sequel, I find it odd that no other independent film of a curious nature has decided to replicate it.
Reagen Sulewski: I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm getting really tired of stunt film releases. Of course, when you can make films like this for $1 million and have it earn that back by 4 p.m. on Friday, they're not going away anytime soon. I just fear what other cable reality show concept (taking off on the obvious inspiration of Ghost Hunters, etc. here) is going to be transformed into a movie now, and how many more are going to try to grab onto the whole social media campaign aspect of this. Fortunately, I think any film that's following in these footsteps is going to seem like a pale copy. It's not for nothing that nothing else was able to follow in the footsteps of the Blair Witch for a decade afterwards.
Bruce Hall: Reagen, that is exactly why there are too many cop shows on television. But it's a monkey see, monkey do world and this kind of result can't and won't be ignored by other studios. There will be imitators, and since we all know what they say about capturing lightning in a bottle, most of them will be spectacular failures. Although the initial success of Paranormal Activity 2 is good news for Paramount, recreating this kind of phenomenon isn't something we're likely to see again terribly soon. Artisan wasted no time jumping on a Blair Witch sequel and we know what happened with that. Even following your own success is not a guarantee, so I think that everyone involved with Paranormal Activity 2 deserves a lot of credit, regardless of whether or not the quality of the film lived up to people's expectations.
Edwin Davies: I think that this demonstrates two things; that Paramount Pictures had a really strong understanding of the appeal of the original film - the almost-underground mystique of people demanding to see the film and building it up - which led them to rather shrewdly choose not to beat everyone over the head with the advertising and keep it all fairly subtle; and that Oren Peli (the writer-director of the first film and the writer-producer of the second) was smart enough not to mess with the basic formula for the sequel, offering up what people liked about the first film whilst also introducing elements (a new conceit to explain the multi-cameras cameras, a baby and a fwuffy puppy!) that made it seem fresh.
It also helps that there doesn't seem to have been that much of a drop in quality between the two films as there was between, to make the comparison that a lot of people have been making, The Blair Witch Project and its ill-fated sequel. Paranormal Activity 2 (or Paranormal 2 Activity, as it has been styled on some of the promotional material) currently stands at 68% on Rotten Tomatoes, in comparison to 82% for the first one, so people wouldn't have gone in thinking that they were going to see some crappy cash-in, but a pretty decent follow-up to a popular first installment.
David Mumpower: In addition to Edwin's excellent points, I would add that Paramount did something else rare here in allowing Peli to control the process a bit. The standard play here is to pay for the rights to the hot new idea then cut the amateur out of the loop. That was certainly what was done with The Blair Witch Project, which is why the second film eliminated any immediate hope of a franchise. Saw isn't directly applicable since it was a product of the studio system from the start (not counting the short). In addition to keeping Peli's ideas, the sequel also featured the return of the stars of the original, two people who have roughly as much acting experience as you, the reader, do. Rather than move away from what worked, they reinforced those themes with a moderate expansion. This was a rare case of movie-making discretion/common sense and the end result is scintillating box office.
Next year: Paranormal Activity 3D
Kim Hollis: Do you expect this spectacular opening weekend to be the high point of the Paranormal Activity franchise, or do you think it a) has room to grow or b) peaked somewhere during the first film's release?
Josh Spiegel: My guess is that this opening weekend is the peak. There was clearly a lot of excitement, hype, and demand for the sequel, but I've read some mixed reviews online from people (non-critics, I mean) who were not fans of the film or, at the very least, the resolution. Now, granted, I don't think the Saw films have been widely beloved, and yet next weekend, the SEVENTH film in that franchise is being released. It seems clear that Paranormal Activity will have a better and longer shelf life than the Blair Witch films, but I don't know how long-lasting it will be.
Tim Briody: I think as a franchise it has peaked with this opening weekend as diminishing returns will start to kick in. But, much like the Saw series that it usurped, Paranormal Activity will be a license to print money until the next shiny thing comes along.
Shalimar Sahota: I think this is the high point. I personally don't want this to turn into a regular yearly franchise released every Halloween, a-la Saw. I mean, just how far can this thing go? Security cameras capture strange happenings in an office and a cleaner is strangled by the wire of a vacuum cleaner? A university library and books fly off the shelves? A military base and soldiers turn on each other? Given the profit margin, I guess it won't be long before Paramount announces Part 3.
Reagen Sulewski: My understanding is that the sequel number will refer to the number of scary things that happen in the film.
Bruce Hall: I've dated a model once in my life. Let's chalk that up to the Law of Averages. If it were to happen a second time, I would consider that luck. A third time would just be...fate. And I don't think either I or Paramount is up for a trifecta. Fate, as they say, is a fickle mistress.
Edwin Davies: I think that it has peaked, but I won't be surprised if they get another two or three films out of it before they call in Ray Stantz, Peter Venkman, Egon Spengler and the other guy to clear the place out. As long as they keep the costs under $5 million and the opening weekends staying in the low-to-mid teens, which is what I'd expect the third film to open to, then spooooooky things will keep happening in spooooooky houses.
Personally, I hope the third film addresses the struggles faced in trying to get ghost and horse marriage made legal.
David Mumpower: I understand why the natural thought process here is to say that the top of the mountain has been reached. Eclipse surpassed New Moon (barely) while Saw the franchise maxed out (domestically) with $87.0 million. So, that's the expected pattern here. Given the deft touch Paramount has demonstrated with the franchise to date, however, I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt here and say that they may have the deft touch needed to make a third film even bigger. Considering what they have accomplished with the first two films, I consider this a distinct possibility.