Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
October 23, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The sequel to the no-budget word-of-mouth smash from a year ago earned $19.1 million on Friday. To put it in perspective, Paranormal Activity's highest earning weekend was $21.1 million on this exact weekend last year. Thanks to the platforming and build up Paranormal Activity had, it's a terrible comparison for the sequel. Instead, this is going to behave like a film from the franchise that Paranormal Activity kneecapped last year, Saw. The last two Saw releases put up weekend multipliers of around 2.0. Paranormal Activity 2 will probably come in with around a 2.1 at best, which is still a pretty astonishing $40.1 million weekend.
[tm:2897_]Hereafter[/tm]
[bp:269_]Clint Eastwood[/bp]'s Hereafter expands into wide release and earns $4.1 million on Friday, fourth place on the day. Eastwood's films tend to draw in the adult audiences and earn above average weekend multipliers, even if the films don't do so hot overall (of his films last year, Invictus had a 2.94, while Gran Torino had a 3.06 upon expanding to wide release, and 2008's Changeling managed a 4.06 in its first weekend of wide release). Based on this, I'd give Hereafter a weekend of about $12 million.
Notable Holdovers
[tm:5017_]Jackass 3D[/tm] drops a pretty predictable 66% from last Friday to $7.6 million. The scary part here is that the third movie's second weekend is going to be pretty much in line with what the first two movies earned in their opening weekend. Look for a second weekend of $21.2 million.
[tm:4578_]Red[/tm] holds strongly, off 38% from last Friday to $4.5 million. While the younger viewers have their Paranormal Jackass or whatever it is that kids are into these days, this is the adult film of choice (with Hereafter being a close second). Give Red a second weekend of $14 million.