Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
September 20, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Manning face everywhere.

Better or worse than The Village? You surprise.

Kim Hollis: The Town won the weekend with $23.8 million. What do you think of this performance? Do you see this release as the unofficial start of Oscar season?

Josh Spiegel: I think that this performance is appropriately solid. I'm still kind of shocked that people thought The Town, following in the footsteps of Mystic River and The Departed, wouldn't top the box office this weekend. The movie has been pretty strongly marketed since Inception came out two months ago, many of the actors have been appearing on every TV show that would have them, and it's yet another adult-oriented action movie. To answer the last question, in that this heralds movies that aren't just mindless blockbusters...sure, this is the start of the Oscar season. Does it deserve a Best Picture nod? In my humble opinion, no. This is a good movie, but there have been and will be better. That said, this movie did deserve its haul this weekend, so good for Ben Affleck.

Bruce Hall: I was not writing for BOP at the time so I'll go on record as saying that I feel Mystic River was highly overrated. I liked Gone Baby Gone but not quite as much as a lot of other people did. But I think this is a bigger win for Affleck than anyone else. Quite often when you are early in your career, respect within the industry is bigger than box office because it opens doors, giving you more and more opportunities to succeed. Affleck is by no means a rookie actor but as a director he's still earning his stripes and I think this one goes a long way. He's got real talent behind the lens and this will open even more doors for him. I think that it won't be too many more years before his name is perennially involved in serious Oscar discussion.

I am not necessarily offering qualifications on his level of skill as I am suggesting that his overall talent for choosing material that fits his skill set and presenting it well on screen is quite good, and some would argue that for many well regarded directors that is their biggest strength. In the long run I think that Affleck will benefit from it.

Matthew Huntley: I was surprised to learn the budget for The Town was a relatively modest $35 million, and although this figure doesn't include marketing costs, it suggests Ben Affleck is an economical director who doesn't necessarily come with a hefty price tag, and he can therefore helm a solid, critically-favored picture that's able to earn back the studio's investment. From here on out, Affleck's name behind the camera can now be utilized to sell tickets (which I think it already did for The Town), and because a $20 million+ opening in September is not exactly common, Warner Bros. should be pleased.

There was talk back in July that Inception was the actual start of Oscar season and many predicted the Christopher Nolan pic would secure a Best Picture nomination. I'm not convinced of that yet, but The Town certainly has the qualities of an Oscar nominee. A nominee, yes; a winner, probably not.

Shalimar Sahota: Looks like what we have is Takers for the older generation, perfectly summed up by that stupidly daring poster of nuns with guns! It's a decent enough result, and I would see it myself largely based on Affleck's directing credentials, for I thought Gone Baby Gone was great. Oscar wise, it'll probably be nominated for Best Picture, but it's only there to make up the numbers.

Edwin Davies: This is about what I thought the film would do, based on the stellar cast and the generally good buzz that it generated before the bulk of the reviews came out. I thought that Gone Baby Gone was a terrific debut for Affleck, and the commercial success of this film should be a real boon to his career as a director (taking him from being an actor who occasionally dabbles in directing to a bona fide film-maker) and should add some more momentum to Jeremy Renner's hot streak.

Personally, I thought that Toy Story 3 marked the unofficial start of Oscar season (it's the only film released so far this year that I consider a dead certainty for a Best Picture nod) - especially if they're keeping the ten nominees gimmick from last year - but since early Fall is round about when studios start to release their "quality" pictures, then I think that the release of The Town is as good a time as any to start thinking about awards season. I haven't had a chance to see the film yet, but the reviews and the pedigree of the cast suggest that it could be a strong contender, especially since, as others have mentioned, similar crime dramas have done well in previous years.

Joshua Pasch: I couldn't agree more with Bruce. I think Mystic River hits a lot of false notes and Gone Baby Gone is a strong first outing for Ben, but with too many twists and turns it loses its way quite a bit (not to mention Casey was good but not half as good as he was as Robert Ford that same year). So on the scale of crime dramas set in Boston, The Town falls quite strongly ahead of those two efforts but shy of The Departed - which is not an insult in the least. Renner is absolutely electric in a role that feels like something his Hurt Locker character would be like if he had returned home with all that pent of angst. Rebecca Hall has been due for a worthy follow-up to Vicky Cristina Barcelona (she was Vicky), and Ben Affleck seems so appropriately at home in Boston.

The opening for The (charles)Town is quite strong - especially with a cast filled with actors that are likable but aren't necessarily proven draws. That The Town opened within spitting distance of The Departed's $27 million is quite impressive. Remember that Departed sported names like Damon, Nicholson, DiCaprio, Whalberg, and not least of all, Scorsese. I wouldn't be surprised if this legged it out to upwards of triple digits during the soft fall weeks ahead - but even with that strong box office, I'm not sure that this one screams Oscar. Maybe some noms for acting (Renner again) or possible Affleck for directing as a dark horse (mainly because the Academy loves nominating actors-turned-directors (see Eastwood, Clint::Mystic River).

Kim Hollis: First off, I agree that Mystic River is an overrated film, but then again I often find Eastwood's films to be...clinical and cold. I also think that Gone Baby Gone is a terrific although flawed film. Finally, I didn't really see any sort of natural progression from Mystic River to The Departed to The Town, other than setting, so I hadn't really made any sort of connection between them at all (and I would say it's very superficial to most people). Thus, I will be the only person to admit that The Town did better than I expected it to. It's not a huge, significant number or anything - I was expecting maybe $18 million. Still, low-mid 20 millions is quite fine.

Reagen Sulewski: What we've seen in the last five or six years has been a careful resurrection of Ben Affleck as a standard bearer for some type of quality. Between things like Reindeer Games and Gigli, he almost destroyed his career through over-exposure and hubris and he seems to have made a turn towards Clooney-ville. Hollywoodland really started him rolling back (he was in the mix for Oscars there, remember) and Gone Baby Gone got him the rest of the way back. The biggest question to me now is whether he gets in there for Best Direction contention.

Well, maybe this is a B

Kim Hollis: Easy A, the Emma Stone comedy with the clever premise, opened to $17.7 million. How should Screen Gems feel about this result?

Josh Spiegel: They ought to feel pretty good. Sony - especially Screen Gems - has been lighting up the box office for the last two months, from Salt and The Other Guys to Takers and Resident Evil. Easy A continues the streak, and is a genuinely entertaining teen comedy. As I'm not the target demographic, I have no idea if Easy A was marketed well, but I was interested solely because the majority of the reviews acknowledged, correctly, that the movie was far better than it deserved to be, thanks in no small part to performances from Stanley Tucci, Patricia Clarkson, and of course, Emma Stone. If we're lucky, she'll become as big a star as she should be. Fingers crossed.

Bruce Hall: Believe it or not I find this gratifying. I am not in the target demographic either but considering the fact that fewer people consider reading an important past time, seeing literary classics turned into teen oriented movies is a good thing, I say. Clueless, She's all That, O...I could go on...these may not necessarily be great works of art but they serve to expose young audiences to material that for its time was transformative material. And that Jane Austen, Shakespeare and Nathaniel Hawthorne endure to the present day suggests that there was something in their works that speaks to people beyond their own generation. Some messages are timeless and for that reason it is hard for me to get on the Remake Hate bandwagon, because the retelling of great stories is a big part of what makes storytelling such an intrinsic part of the human experience. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't, but has always been the nature of the craft and it always will be.

On that note, Easy A wasn't great art any more than Clueless, but like Amy Heckerling's second most important work, it set out with a goal and largely achieved it. And in doing so, Easy A may have exposed several potential stars in the making. At the end of the day this is a short term win for the studio but a longer term win for everyone involved.

And full disclosure: I hate Nathaniel Hawthorne. But people still read his stuff today and 150 years after I die nobody's going to know I ever was here so...Hawthorne 1, Me 0.

Kim Hollis: Hawthorne is awesome. That is all. (The Marble Faun is one of the finest books I've ever read.)

Matthew Huntley: Screen Gems should be thrilled. Easy A carries a negative cost of just $8 million, and with good reviews and little competition in the coming weeks, the Emma Stone comedy will easily be on its way toward profitability by the time it leaves theaters (which is not the case for most movies). If the subsidiary company has anything to complain about, it's the lack of bragging rights to say they were #1 again, but they've had a terrific year, and Easy A is the latest proof.

Edwin Davies: They should be pretty damn pleased with this one, both from a financial and artistic standpoint. It cost them very little to make and will make a more than modest amount back if it has decent legs, and the overwhelmingly positive response should ensure that they are forthcoming.

Joshua Pasch: Screen Gems certainly is and should be feeling good this Monday morning. Teen comedies are some of the most unpredictable box office performers and this is much closer to the genre's ceiling than most others. Emma Stone is on an unlikely path of stardom, but props to her as I've been on the Stone bandwagon ever since I wanted to brush her hair behind her ear Jesse Eisenberg style. Also, Easy A has a shot at not collapsing in the weeks ahead given that reviews are above average.

Also - has anyone noticed that this is Bynes' third "teen update" of a classic (either lit or film) - she has done Sydney White (Snow White), She's The Man (Twelfth Night), and now Easy A (Scarlet Letter)?

Reagen Sulewski: This is a pretty spectacular number for its genre. For all the talk about how teen sensibilities rule the box office, teen comedies generally sink and die. Some of the best remembered teen comedies barely made $30 million, if that. With a little luck, Easy A might get to $70 million, but it's probably headed for $50 million or so and will be remembered as one of the peaks of its genre.

The big winner here is obviously Emma Stone, though.