Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
July 6, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Twilight Saga: Eclipse earned $64.8 million in the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the weekend, and has a running total so far of $176.4 million. How should Summit Entertainment feel about this result?
Josh Spiegel: Obviously, they should be dancing on the walls. If it wasn't for the Twilight series, they'd have a Best Picture winner to brag about (The Hurt Locker), but even that movie holds the honor of being incredibly low-grossing. Summit doesn't care a whit (or shouldn't) that Eclipse is going to perform as poorly in the future as New Moon did, because it'll make over $200 million off of a budget that's under $100 million by more than a fair bit. From a more analytical standpoint, I'm kind of surprised that, even with the frontloaded nature of the franchise, Eclipse made, in the Friday-to-Sunday period, an estimated half-million more than it did on its opening day. This series does a great job of opening huge and flaming out quickly, but all Summit should care about is the first part.
Daron Aldridge: I agree with Josh. Anything less than exuberance on Summit's part is just the greed talking. Yeah, we could nitpick that it took Eclipse five days (plus $30 million in midnights) to barely beat The Dark Knight's three-day debut and it looks to have barely topped the six-year-old mark for the same frame set by Spider-Man 2. That doesn't take away that Eclipse is -this close- to earning nine-digits over its budget in less than a week. Summit has two perfect bellwethers for how this thing will perform and they had to have been looking to open ginormously (in this case, earn your budget back in 24 hours) and then, enjoy the rest of the show.
Eric Hughes: Summit should be ecstatic, but it's probably not. New Moon came within $20 million of owning the best three-day opening weekend of all time, and Eclipse fell far short of it and the current champ, The Dark Knight. As for the five-day record, Eclipse missed that, too. I'm sure Summit expected Eclipse to bust records, and that just didn't happen (other than some opening day shenanigans). Eclipse made a tremendous amount of cash in five days, but the greedy suits probably can't help but think that Eclipse should have performed better.
Matthew Huntley: Summit should be incredibly pleased with this result, not least because the movie has already grossed about $110 million more than it cost to produce, so it's already a certified hit. If Summit is at all bummed about Eclipse not making as much money as New Moon, they can at least take solace in the fact that other franchises experienced the same result when their sequels were released within six to eight months of each other. Other examples include The Matrix Revolutions, which grossed about as half as much as Reloaded did earlier that year, and Back to the Future Part III, which made about 50% less than Part II, which came out six months prior. It may just be a case of Twilight overload. Studios should take a hint and at least wait a full year so fans have enough time to get excited for the next installment (like Lord of the Rings).
Shalimar Sahota: Summit Entertainment ought to be thrilled. They're emerging as quite the formidable studio, all thanks to the "grow it big cream" that is The Twilight Saga. Matthew makes a good point about releasing sequels within months of each other. The next one, Breaking Dawn, supposedly won't be released till November 2011, by which time the fan base would have grown in numbers and be salivating for another Twilight film.
Kim Hollis: I'm sure that Summit was hoping for a little bit more, but there's no way they're unhappy with his result. The Twilight series continues to chug along and pull in ridiculous cash in comparison to its relatively low budget. They acquired the rights to this series for next to nothing and it's turned into a massive, massive cultural touchstone.
Tim Briody: If the Summit execs are not rolling around in the piles and piles of money the Twilight series has made them, I will be very disappointed.
David Mumpower: The consensus opinion is that we clearly believe this is another masterstroke of good fortune for Summit Entertainment. I suspect that what you will read in the coming days is that there is cause for concern that the franchise is slipping. But let's presume for a moment that New Moon had never occurred. What we would be discussing is a franchise that went from $70 million in three days to $160 million in five days. That's the type of spike usually reserved for movies starring Jack Sparrow. Anytime we compare a film to the second largest opening of all-time, we're being unreasonable with our expectations, even if it's a direct sequel. The only title on the release schedule I am relatively certain will outperform its predecessor that is on this same scale is the sequel to The Dark Knight. The determination on every other title is relative. Some of these are not rocket science. When a $65 million budgeted film earns this much in its first week, it's epic.
Are the Twi-Hards jumping ship?
Kim Hollis: We note in the weekend wrap-up that Eclipse's performance is showing a downtick compared to what New Moon did in November of 2009. Do you think the lower box office is due to the release pattern (Wednesday opening versus Friday opening), the calendar configuration (November versus June), a decline in interest or some other reason?
Josh Spiegel: I would imagine a combination of all three factors. Obviously, it's the summer, so the target audience doesn't need to see the movie on the weekend. I doubt this movie will have great weekday numbers, but there aren't any schools in session to hold teenage girls from checking this out on a Thursday. It's also clear that the Wednesday opening, plus the July 4th weekend, makes the numbers analysis a bit more frustrating. There may be a minor lack of interest from those people who hadn't read the book series, heard about the first film, checked out New Moon, disliked or hated it, and decided not to check out Eclipse. Unlike the Harry Potter series, Twilight's core fan base is what it is, and if you don't want to see the movie (like, say, me), you're not going to.
Daron Aldridge: I think the biggest dip is the fact that the interested but not fanatical kids (and their moms) don't HAVE to go on the weekend because school is out. Other than the millions of die-hard fans (I refuse to utter their unbearably cutesy moniker that rhymes with die-hard), the interested yet more patient teens may be just waiting. Case in point, I saw my 13-year-old niece just today reading or maybe re-reading Eclipse before she would see the movie. Pardon the comparison, because the quality of products is worlds apart, but I think this franchise is similar to Iron Man, in that the audience has reached critical mass and that the totals of New Moon is about as much as you are going to get from the public. So, I will be stunned if any of the Twilight movies grosses much beyond $300 million - which is still incredible, especially if they keep these things so moderately budgeted. As someone, who would be the equivalent of a fervent Twilight fan for the first Iron Man, I know that I thoroughly enjoyed the sequel despite the naysayers out there and will show up for the next one with a smile on my face. That same blindness to flaws is what seems to drive Teams Edward and Jacob into a lather.
Matthew Huntley: I agree with Josh that all three factors play a part, but I would say the biggest reason boils down to Twilight overload. Have fans been given enough time to really digest New Moon and really get excited for the next installment? It's like it was shoved into their faces. Summit may feel like they're under a deadline and have
Daron Aldridge: Matthew, I have to disagree that the anticipation of "what happens next" comes into play with this series since the books are such huge sellers and the reason the fanbase is so big. I just don't see that as a factor here. That being said, they might get more hype (which I don't see how, since this film and its stars have been everywhere for the last month or so), if they did wait a full year or more between titles.
Kim Hollis: I think it's really a combination of factors that caused a bit of a downturn from New Moon's box office. I do think that the Wednesday open sucked out (no pun intended) some of the very early adopters, whereas in November, those dollars would have gone to Friday's box office. Meanwhile, there does seem to be an automatic dip in opening weekend box office when you open a film in June/July as opposed to November. It's happened with Harry Potter - another youthful, book-oriented audience - and now Eclipse has followed a similar trajectory. Finally, I do wonder if some people who were willing to give the second movie a chance might not have quit on it after New Moon, since even the most devoted Twilight folks say it's the most boring portion of the story.