One Month Out: Weekend of July 2, 2010
By BOP Staff
June 27, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Brett Beach: Since I have no familiarity with the show whatsoever (but hear good things from reading fellow BOP-er comments), I feel that my expectations are probably not grounded in anything solid. That said, I feel that this doesn't have much of a marketing presence, which raises my eyebrows. My mystic powers say that it will perform similarly to Pokemon the Movie from over a decade ago. It should have a very strong opening weekend followed by steep declines thereafter. It may be intended as the opening salvo in a trilogy, but it won't make much over $100 million domestically.
Tom Houseman: Sorry to get all political on everyone, but I personally am boycotting The Last Airbender. Any movie about a black, asian or hispanic character that stars a white person in the part is ridiculous, and I have no interest in supporting that kind of film. I boycotted 21 (rewrote the race of every major character), I boycotted Prince of Persia, and now I'm boycotting The Last Airbender. I suggest everyone do the same.
Josh Spiegel: I know nothing of the series, and if all I had to base it on was the preview, which goes to far too many lengths to tell me that the auteur behind Lady in the Water and The Happening wrote, produced, and directed it, I'd skip it in a heartbeat. I've heard, as mentioned previously, that the source material is great, but the movie just looks blah to me. Also, I'm with Tom: it's disheartening at the very least to find that the show, which was so racially diverse, has been whitewashed (except for, I believe, the villains, who are played by Indian actors). That said, I could just as easily see this movie being a huge hit as it could be a huge flop.
Jim Van Nest: As one of the BOPers mentioned above, I can't wait for the real Avatar to hit theaters. The show is fantastic, and the trailers show me all I need to see. Everything is spot on. The actors even look like the cartoon characters, from what I've seen. I'm also a huge Shyamalan fan and can't wait to see what he does with this. Being such a fanboy, I could have unrealistic expectations, but I really think this could be a breakout kind of flick. Kids know it and it's kid friendly, which should only help the box office. I don't see a crazy high opening, but a $45-50 million debut wouldn't shock me.
Matthew Huntley: I have a feeling this film will perform (or maybe underperform is the more appropriate term) a lot like Prince of Persia. It will open with about $33 million over the traditional three-day weekend and maybe $47 over the long Fourth of July weekend. After that, it will fade fast. The movie just doesn't seem all that interesting and it means nothing to me it's been converted to 3D.
Jason Lee: This film absolutely has the potential to break out, but the shadowy presence of Shyamalan carries as much of a stigma nowadays as a pre-Tropic Thunder Tom Cruise. I would see it underperforming, were it not for the bump it'll get from the July 4th weekend.
Shalimar Sahota: Unless it's called Harry Potter or Twilight, it's not going to be an easy ride for kids' fantasy films. The Spiderwick Chronicles and Percy Jackson did reasonably okay business, while Cirque du Freak disappeared altogether. I really don't know how popular the show is, but the last anime series to go live action was Dragonball Evolution! Then there's Shammy himself, who has disappointed critically and commercially with his last two films, though I'll admit that I do still have faith in him.
There is enough in the trailers to entice a larger audience, and it does have me kinda interested, but that it's opening the same week as Twilight: Eclipse is absolutely crazy. This seems to have everything going against it. I can only assume that if children enjoyed seeing someone their own age doing martial arts in The Karate Kid a few weeks back, and they want more of the same with a bit of magic thrown in, then this is going to be the next best thing. I'm going to be optimistic, since (with the help of 3D) I think this has a chance of opening at around $38 - 43 million.
Kim Hollis: While I totally want to take the time to watch the TV series at some point in the near future based on the recommendations I've received from fellow BOPers, I see no reason to think The Last Airbender (the movie) won't be an unmitigated disaster. I'm not sure what is there to draw in people who aren't fans of the show in the first place. It's very odd and off-putting, and now that audiences have been burned by Shyamalan a couple of times or more (The Happening, The Lady in the Water, arguably The Village, and perhaps Signs), I just don't see his name adding credibility to a project. If anything, I think it hurts.
Thinking it over a little more, I suppose the 3-D might help The Last Airbender, but I'm not sure that it's going to matter. This sort of reminds me of Speed Racer, a movie I loved but mainstream audiences rejected for being too quirky.
David Mumpower: I disagree with the assertions that M. Night Shyamalan has a negative stigma to mainstream movie-goers. To the contrary, the fact that The Happening opened so well is a demonstration of his being the rare director whose name means something in the advertising. Yes, his last two movies were abominations but that isn't quantifiable as a negative in terms of box office. Still, I have been waiting for that trailer for The Last Airbender that really sells it as something spectacular. Instead, it seems rather derivative, as if the marketing campaign has been focused upon moving to the middle and specifically away from an animated story that is by all accounts marvelously well told. I'm expecting it to be open just under $30 million, which isn't anywhere near good enough for a $150 million production, even if it will do well internationally.