One Month Out Part II
By BOP Staff
May 13, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Toy Story 3
Jonah Hex
What are your feelings/expectations about these projects?
Josh Spiegel: I will be seriously shocked if Toy Story 3 doesn't become the movie to either top The Dark Knight's opening weekend, or come close to it. You've got IMAX, you've got 3D, you've got Pixar, and you've got one of the most beloved film franchises of the past 20 years. I don't see how this movie fails, at least in its first three days. Now that Iron Man 2 has opened, this is the next movie that I'm going to see probably as soon as I get home from work on June 18th. Jonah Hex....good cast (and Megan Fox), bad trailer, and potentially awful movie. I don't see this one being big, even if it opened on another weekend.
Michael Lynderey: Jonah Hex has given me a negative vibe for awhile now. As for that other movie coming out... well... what can one really say? At this point, all I can do is bow down in reluctant obedience to the unstoppable empire that is Pixar. One day, perhaps even in this century, I'm sure they'll make a bomb that gets butchered by critics. But that day is not June 18, 2010, I think.
Matthew Huntley: When the Toy Story 3 teaser first previewed before UP last summer, the crowd roared with anticipation. A year later, it seems like the enthusiasm has died down a bit, but that's not to say the movie's opening will be any less huge (although its staying power might be). The bottom line is that audiences have been eagerly awaiting a third Toy Story movie for quite some time, especially since Toy Story 2 went so far beyond expectations in terms of quality. I'll definitely see it, but the trailers have diluted my expectations. Then again, with the exception of CARS, Pixar has always defied my expectations, so there's little reason to think this can't do the same. I'm hoping TS3 will be even better than its predecessors, but even if it's not, it will likely open to the tune of $100 million because of its established fanbase, and $300 million in total seems guaranteed because of the genre and Disney/Pixar brand name.
Jonah Hex looks incredibly stupid, although that may make it a guilty pleasure. It has the same look and feel as Ghost Rider, and that film opened to $50+ million back in 2007. Given the release date and its hyper-testosterone mentality (there's at least a half-dozen explosions in its short, two-minute trailer), a $35 million opening feels like a safe bet, with about $100 million in total, although there will probably be little critical praise to go along with it.
Jason Lee: We've never seen a Pixar movie that opened like a mammoth blockbuster (i.e. $100+ mil opening weekend) and I question whether or not Pixar is the type of studio that produces films that will ever act like a mammoth blockbuster. I'm just not sure it'll ever happen; I think you love Pixar films and you want to go see Pixar films, but there's no rush to see it opening weekend. That said, Toy Story is probably the best candidate they'll ever have for mammoth blockbuster status. I would love to see it open $100+ mil, but I can't see it overtaking Shrek The Third's $121 mil opening.
Jim Van Nest: One word - Records. Toy Story 3 will set several records, I think. It should easily be the biggest movie of the year. What else is there to be said that hasn't been covered on this site in some form? Pixar is money and Toy Story is their signature franchise.
Jonah Hex - Because it's debuting against the Toys, it won't even enjoy the benefit of an inflated opening weekend. This one will die right out of the gate.
David Mumpower: Toy Story 3 offers the most complexity of any potential blockbuster release this summer. We’re talking about a potential $100+ million opening weekend from Pixar, a studio that has never exceeded $70.5 million for an opening weekend. When Jason says that we have never seen a Pixar movie that opened like a mammoth blockbuster, however, he’s not quite right even though he does specify the terms he considers to qualify. No, Pixar hasn’t had a $70 million debut since 2004, but upon its release in 1999, Toy Story 2 trampled any numbers of the box office records of the day with an $80.2 million Thanksgiving five-day performance. It was “special”, which is that most nebulous of terms used to quantify the biggest properties from the lesser ones.
Movies like WALL-E and Up are ones that BOP loves (they won the last two Best Picture awards at The Calvins, after all), but Toy Story is the franchise that defines Pixar in the minds of most consumers. If we inflation-adjust that $80.2 million total into 2010 ticket pricing, it represents $118.9 million. Yes, that’s a five-day sum and yes, it reflects holiday inflation. Those are on the con side; the pro side is that the number I’m quoting is before we factor in 3-D ticket price inflation. So, there is a lot going on here. As such, I fully understand why people think this should be Pixar’s biggest debut to date but not a mammoth one. Shrek has been historically the property that opens huge, which is a sad indictment on pop culture.
Will Pixar rise above its recent pattern and finally reach $100 million on opening weekend? I’ve thought about this a lot, finally settling upon yes as my answer. I agree with Jason that it’s probably not going to be enough to surpass Shrek’s animation record for largest debut, though. I would absolutely love to be wrong about this, though. In fact, nobody will be hoping that it takes a run at The Dark Knight more than I am. Unfortunately, what I want doesn’t line up with what I am expecting.
As for Jonah Hex, I am forcibly reminded of The Spirit. Yes, this DC property will (probably) do better in its opening weekend than that one managed during its theatrical run, $19.8 million, but I have a hard time seeing it making even as much as $75 million. It just seems like a mistake in every sense of the word. I admire the daring involved in picking *this* character to be the next comic book movie. I do not, however, like anything else about it.
Kim Hollis: The wide releases for the weekend of June 25th are:
Grown Ups
Knight & Day
What are your feelings/expectations about these projects?
Josh Spiegel: The Adam Sandler who appears in movies like Mr. Deeds is an Adam Sandler I do not understand. I don't find him funny in these movies, I don't like him, and the movies are usually pretty terrible. Grown Ups looks like it's going to continue that trend, but I'm sure the movie will open all right, at least. Knight & Day could be a big opener; they've done well at Fox for marketing it early, and the footage looks promising. Even with a shrieky Cameron Diaz, I'm excited about this movie.
David Mumpower: As I have said elsewhere on the site, I am not expecting anything less from Grown Ups than a Couples Retreat type of run. In fact, $109 million is about the least I see this film making, because it is comfort food for the masses. As I said when Couples Retreat tore up the box office, I fully expect these sorts of working vacation movie productions to become a frequent aspect of the industry moving forward. It is a lesson learned from the Ocean franchise. Stars like to get away from it all and hang out with people of like behavior just as much as the rest of us. If they can make a $100+ million movie with absolutely no downside, what is there to lose? Were a project like this to fail, everyone would share the blame rather than the focus going solely against a star like Adam Sandler, Kevin James or Chris Rock. It’s a genius play.
With regards to Knight & Day, I am as excited about this project as anything remaining on the Summer schedule. This looks like my type of action film with just the right combination of comedy and action. I have always had a weak spot for those going all the way back to when I fell in love with Die Hard. I also believe that for all of his crippling personality flaws, Tom Cruise chooses projects as well as any actor I have ever seen. Will Smith is working his way into that discussion, but Cruise is the gold standard to date. Having said all of this, I’m not looking for much beyond a $45 million opening weekend for Knight & Day since mainstream consumers are more bothered by Cruise’s madness than I.
Michael Lynderey: As is custom for me, it looks like I'm in complete disagreement with the majority. I've seen person after person here at BOP express their admiration for Knight & Day, but I just can't much get into the trailers for it, or drudge up any particular interest. Grown Ups, on the other hand, looks like potentially dumb fun, and I'm always game for movies with all-star casts. Box office-wise, this two-pack hits right in the middle of what I believe are going to be 15 massive days of box office - starting from Toy Story 3 marching into town on the 18th and ending with whatever The Last Airbender is able to pull off in early July. Grown Ups is an easy lock for $100 million (one of many such upcoming films to star Kevin James, I think), while there's still a chance Knight & Day won't get to three digits. We shall see.
Kim Hollis: Although Grown Ups looks pretty dodgy quality-wise to me (any movie that has David Spade as a central character runs that risk), I'm pretty sure its box office will be just fine. Couples Retreat is the perfect comparison. Like most of these goofy Sandler comedies (note: I *love* Adam Sandler but I don't always love his films), it'll claw its way to around $100 million and be a money maker for its studio. It's harmless fun and there's nothing wrong with that. Even if it's not for me, there are a lot of people who really enjoy that sort of thing.
I do think Knight & Day looks pretty fun, but I'm always someone who digs Tom Cruise as I think he does make solid choices with regards to projects. He has charisma and I almost see this role as a lighter version of the hitman he played in Collateral. Instead of being a bad guy sucking an innocent player into his web, he's a good guy who involves his blind date in his escapades. I don't love Cameron Diaz, but I do think that she and Cruise have had good chemistry before (Vanilla Sky), so I see a lot of upside for this quality-wise. I do think it has some box office limitations to the point that it may only open to $40 million or so. It could have great legs if it's good, though.