One Month Out Part I
June 2010
By BOP Staff
May 12, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Get Him to the Greek
Killers
Marmaduke
Splice
What are your feelings/expectations about these projects?
Josh Spiegel: I'm relatively excited for Get Him To The Greek, as it reunites the director and breakout supporting star of Forgetting Sarah Marshall; the trailer looks pretty funny, and I'm curious to see what a Judd Apatow-produced movie looks like when the story is about momentum of some kind. Splice, I'd see if I didn't assume it'd be icky, but the trailer is effective. The other two movies....well, let's just pretend they don't exist, right, kids? We're NOT going to see Marmaduke, RIGHT??
Brett Beach: Marmaduke: Falls in the category of "family film that I may one day be called upon to sit through by my son unless I have instilled the right cinema-loving values within his frame, but otherwise ain't happening." This could hit $100 million by default, as it falls two weeks after Shrek and two weeks before Toy Story and families may need a CGI dog voiced by Owen Wilson to get them through the early days of summer vacation
Killers: I don't actively dislike Ashton Kutcher, although I realize I have seen only two of his films as a leading actor (Dude, Where's My Car and The Butterfly Effect). I do actively dislike Katherine Heigl and can' t imagine this will do much to dissuade me of that opinion. I'll wait for Knight & Day. From a grosses standpoint, it'll be less than The Ugly Truth but more than Just Married. Call it $70 million.
Get Him to the Greek: Russell Brand may have nabbed Katy Perry, but in my mind I view him as a second-tier Sacha Baron Cohen. I like what Nicholas Stoller did with Forgetting Sarah Marshall but am more excited for what he and Jason Segel are attempting with the upcoming Muppets movie. Show-biz comedies are hard sells (like satire) but this won't have the disadvantage of Funny People's dramatic sub-plots or 148 minute running time. It should produce FSM level grosses with a slight chance for breakout.
Splice: This was in the top three on my ballot for the BOP 25 of Summer. As I said in Trailer Hitch, I put faith in Sarah Polley's career choices. If she is going to the horror well again, it's not because she is behind on payments for some new car or home. I like that she and Adrien Brody (another actor prone to making mostly smart/interesting choices) are both professionally and romantically paired in the film. The trailer makes the film seem creepy, and not in generic horror genre ways. I feel this could be a low-key sleeper hit with strong reviews leading some on-the-fencers in to see it...but then again Drag Me to Hell only made $40 million so who knows?
Michael Lynderey: This is that one June weekend without an $100 million earner, I think. Four movies in one day? That's been rare even in the spring lately. Really, I see Get Him to the Greek as the potential breakout here, especially since I suspect good reviews are in store for it. Give it $70 million, just like Role Models, I Love You, Man, and all the rest.
Killers looks okay, but I don't quite see 27 Dresses / Ugly Truth-level results here. Maybe $50 million. Same number I'd give Marmaduke, which doesn't seem all that exceptional, and lacks the new "secret" weapon of kids' movies: 3D.
I still can't see Splice breaking out in any sense.
Matthew Huntley: At first glance, it looks like the previous weekend's box-office winners will remain on top - namely Sex and the City 2 and The Prince of Persia. None of the new releases look like they're strong enough to steal those films' thunder, even with the expected post-Memorial Day declines. Of the the films on the list, the only ones that have a shot are Get Him to the Greel (because of the adolescent male demographic) and Killers (because of the couples demographic). The others are too low-profile and/or have anemic ad campaigns, so they'll likely cause little raucous at the turnstiles. Are kids today even aware of the Marmaduke comic strip? As for Splice, it probably seemed interesting and creepy on paper, but the trailer gives too much away and undermines any effective elements the film might have. It seems like just another run-of-the-mill horror movie along the lines of Species. With the new releases, audiences will probably be thinking, "been there, done that" and avoid them.
Jim Van Nest: Are we sure this isn't a weekend in February? How can so much crap come out on the same day? And in the summertime, for crying out loud! I have no love for Sex and the City or Prince of Persia, but I'm with Matthew...they should BOTH outperform all four of these offerings.
Jason Lee: I think I fall among the general sentiment in this discussion. There isn't a single film there that I'd shell out 15 bucks to go see. This is like the weekend that summer forgot.
David Mumpower: Get Him to the Greek was a project that I was thrilled about upon its announcement. I had loved that character in Forgetting Sarah Marshall, as he had a surprising amount of depth as well as innate decency. He could have been a one note gag, but Russell Brand was given more and he justified that result with a strong performance. Seeing the clips from this movie breaks my heart. There is simply no funny anywhere to be found. I hope the movie itself proves me wrong, but this looks like a mistake. Marmaduke will make money and everyone involved with it will enjoy their residual checks while feeling very, very dirty about sinking to that level if only for a while. It reminds me a lot of the first Garfield, which in turn reminds me a lot of a great Zombieland joke. Killers will be a surprise hit to a lot of people. For all of her faults, Katherine Heigl is a box office draw and Ashton Kutcher is as well. This is probably going to wind up with a nice, tidy What Happens in Vegas type of domestic performance. Splice probably won’t be large enough to matter from a box office perspective, but that’s the film I am currently anticipating the most out of this quartet.
Kim Hollis: The wide releases for the weekend of June 11th are:
The A-Team
The Karate Kid
What are your feelings/expectations about these projects?
Josh Spiegel: The A-Team looks all right (though I could do without the idiotic line from Jessica Biel about how the guys "specialize in the ridiculous."), but I'll wait to see if the reviews are strong, tepid, or otherwise. The Karate Kid....why is this movie being made again? I realize that a lot of people have nostalgic feelings about this movie, but what is the point about making a movie about nostalgia, when it's in a different country, not about the same kind of karate, and the trailer goes out of its way to mock the original? I'll skip this one, and I'll be shocked if it opens huge.
Michael Lynderey: Looking forward to The A-Team. Should pull in good old-fashioned summer blockbuster numbers. You know - $55 million open, $140 million total - something like that. With a kids' movie opening the week before (Marmaduke) and after (Toy Story 3), I just don't see Karate Kid being all that huge. Jaden Smith isn't a draw among his age group quite yet. If it's really good, though, legs aren't out of the question.
Matthew Huntley: I'm not overly familiar with The A-Team television series, but the trailer makes it seem like look like a solid popcorn movie - an attractive cast; overblown action and stunts; and sex appeal. It has almost everything required to be a summer hit, so there's little reason to think it won't open to at least $50 million.
As for The Karate Kid, well, that's a different story. For one thing, the original still feels new, even if it is 26 years old. For that reason alone, die-hard fans of the 1984 version won't give it the time of day. As for newcomers to the franchise, the trailer makes it look too generic. Jayden Smith isn't exactly a star, and Jackie Chan's popularity has been fading over the past decade. I'll give the film a $28 million opening on name and release date, but short legs thereafter.
Jason Lee: I could see The A-Team having the same type of box office performance as Get Smart from a few years ago. The Karate Kid should do the same type of numbers as every other MGM release (poor).
Jim Van Nest: The A-Team...for me, this one looks GI Joe bad. The show wasn't even that good and now they're making a movie? Um...okay. I expect it will have a decent opening due to fans of the old show, but I'd expect it to go away quickly as no one else will care.
Karate Kid. I fear this will have a similar fate, though I do hold out more hope for the quality of the film. From everything I hear, Jaden Smith is a pretty darn good martial artist and you have to like Jackie Chan. But, like A-Team, I'd expect a decent opening weekend and then a quick fade away.
A-Team should win the weekend, probably in the $50-60 million range with Karate Kid coming in second around $35 million or so.
David Mumpower: As a huge fan of the original Karate Kid, I have been making fun of this project for ages, particularly when the name was temporarily changed to The Kung Fu Kid. To my complete and total shock, the trailers for this look pretty good, which is frankly not something I had anticipated. I think it could wind up being a nice sleeper hit, just as the original was once upon a time. If it’s not, Jackie Chan is probably done as a major player in the industry (read: Rush Hour 4 will get a greenlight). The A-Team is another title I had assumed would be garbage right up until the casting began. Now, I think this has a chance to earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $135-$150 million, maybe even more. As long as the movie is good, it’s going to do very well. Those trailers are great.