Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
April 12, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com

The past and the future of Major League Baseball.

What's next? A Neil Patrick Harris/Charlie Sheen rom-com?

Kim Hollis: Date Night, the Steve Carell/Tina Fey romantic comedy from Fox, opened to $25.2 million. What do you think of this result? And what do you anticipate its legs will be like?

Josh Spiegel: This result isn't that bad, and I've read that the studio was playing down expectations, but I honestly thought this would get to or pass $30 million. The movie has been advertised for a long enough time, and Carell and Fey, while not being box office superstars, aren't nobodies. What's more, the diverse cast seemed like it was meant to invite more than just adults and some teens who love the two stars. Still, the number's not bad. Its legs, though, I don't see as being too impressive. Granted, this won't be as bad as Evan Almighty was for Carell, but I'd thought this had an honest chance at $100 million, which I don't see anymore.

Daron Aldridge: I am on the opposite side of this argument, Josh. This completely exceeded my expectations. I was pegging this for less than $20 million based upon the quality of the abundance of ads (prime example of quantity over quality) and the fact that while Carell and Fey both have a critical TV following but neither of those shows is a Nielsen winner. A month ago, I would have been surprised with a total gross of more than $50 million based upon these (clearly incorrect) assumptions. Legs are bit of question, though, because the reviews have been better than I was expecting and Fey's Baby Mama opened in late April $17.4 million and managed a 3.47 multiplier for total of $60.3 million. Similarly, Patrick Dempsey's Made of Honor (also in 2008 and featuring a recognizable TV actor) opened a week later with $14.8 million and its 3.11 multiplier meant a gross of $46 million. So, even if Date splits the difference with a 3.25 multiplier, Date Night still takes home over $80 million.

Matthew Huntley: Daron, great research! I agree with you on this one and think Date Night will end up grossing between $80 and $90 million domestically. This will be enough to cover its mid-50s production budget and probably a good chunk of its marketing costs. The movie is light, breezy and entertaining enough that the word-of-mouth will be good, but not great. I anticipate drop-offs of 40-45% in the coming weeks, which will be the same sort of legs The Bounty Hunter has shown. And if that latter film can overcome appalling reviews and still reach the same demographic, a movie starring the moderately reliable (box-office-wise, that is) Steve Carell and Tina Fey, it should be able to hold on well through April. If it's true that Fox's expectations were so-so, this should come as a welcoming surprise to the studio.

Reagen Sulewski: What we saw here was a very careful balancing of two factors - the awful reviews and commercials and the marquee value of the two stars of the film. While Carrell is clearly the bigger star of the two actors, one thing that using Baby Mama as a benchmark for Fey misses is that that film was pre- the Sarah Palin impression, which really vaulted Fey into the public consciousness. So we've got two comedic forces near the height of their power. What they're saddled with is unfortunate jokes about "whacking people off". When a shirtless Mark Wahlberg is the most memorable thing about your ad campaign you've got trouble.

Legs wise I suspect this will be okay, as it takes a lot for a comedy to really piss people off, but I'm looking for something more in the neighborhood of $85 million.



Michael Lynderey: I think it's a very good number. True, $25 million isn't a best case scenario by any means, but hey, it beat out The Bounty Hunter, right? Ideally, this should have been a summer release. As for legs - I'd normally peg those as being respectable at the least, but there's a real avalanche of comedies coming down the pike, even if they do target different demographics. A 3.0 multiplier or so seems very possible.

Daron Aldridge: Reagen, I agree that the awareness is huge with her Palin becoming Dana Carvey's George H. W. Bush because it is what people actually think the real person is like, but does an few minute impersonation of Palin really have any quantifiable value money-wise?

David Mumpower: In terms of this opening, it's almost exactly what I had expected. As Reagen notes, the film walks a fine line between the goodwill possessed by its two leads and the hostility evoked by the god-awful commercials. What amuses me about the entire review process is that it shows just how much bias there is. Had a currently disliked talent such as Tom Cruise, Mel Gibson or M. Night Shyamalan been involved, this would be getting scathing reviews. It's the very definition of a blah film with people largely unwilling to damn it because Fey does a funny Sarah Palin impression. People who watch this and All About Steve in succession would notice no difference in quality between the two yet one becomes a Worst of Year contender while the other is (laughably) 67% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes. I'm surprised they weren't given six Emmys on opening night as well.

Max Braden: In the middle of last week, I had settled on an expectation of low 20s, mostly because the trailers were running the jokes into the ground. I'd be interested in seeing the demographics for those numbers. Contrasted to The Bounty Hunter, Date Night is more of an old school comedian pairing in a movie that Steve Martin might have done 15-20 years ago. What Valentine's Day was for couples, Date Night may have been for a slightly older audience. If the movie was able to pull in people older than 30, I think that makes the $25 million more impressive.

David Mumpower: 60% of Date Night's customers were couples over 25. Among singles, it played almost 50/50 between men and women.

Jason Lee: Personally, I think that $25.2 million is a win. There aren't too many other comedians or comediennes that could have opened this movie with this premise in this range. I think what really helped this film is that you have two actors that you EXPECT to be funny. Doesn't matter if the trailer is great or if the commercials are entertaining. All you have to say is "Steve Carell and Tina Fey" and you assume that the movie has some decent level of wit, intelligence and humor. And I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the freakin' title of the movie as a partial reason for it's success. This totally is in the vein of Valentine's Day eight weeks ago. C'mon, you have two adults looking for a fun night out on the town -- how perfect is this movie for actual couples looking for a fun night out on the town?

The correct answer is secret option C: Mark Wahlberg's third nipple

Kim Hollis: Whose career do you see getting a bigger boost from Date Night, Carell or Fey?
Josh Spiegel: I'm not sure that a) either of them will get a career boost and b) that either of them needs it. In terms of future films, Fey would maybe need a bit more of a boost (as Carell's got Dinner for Schmucks coming in the summer), but both of these actors are the stars of two very popular NBC sitcoms (okay, maybe they're not hugely popular, but for NBC, they do the trick) and extremely recognizable. Neither needs any help in their careers, and I'm not sure that this result guarantees anything huge in the offing.

Daron Aldridge: Josh, I agree with that uncertainty. This isn't a hitmaker result so far. If I was forced to pick one, it would be Fey, only because she doesn't have as deep of a leading film resume as Carell. But I don't buy that this film and this role is the one that makes her more of a bankable movie star.

Michael Lynderey: I'm not interested much in their TV work, but film-wise, I'd say Tina Fey benefits more. Carell's already an established movie star, and Date Night doesn't particularly help or hurt him. Fey, on the other hand, has only headlined one previous movie - a modestly successful one, yes - but carrying two of those is better than just the one, and in fact, it's a good step towards getting a third. If Date Night had underperformed, Carell would still be okay, but Fey's film future could have been placed in jeopardy. Luckily, that didn't happen.

Reagen Sulewski: How much of a boost does it take before either of them gets to see their own material up on the screen? Because that's the thing that's really going to matter. Fey's a talented woman - she really needs to stop acting in other people's crappy scripts.

Matthew Huntley: I agree with Josh and Daron. Date Night is fun and safe (there's limited risque material in it), but I don't think it's going raise Carell or Fey's statuses in Hollywood. Why? Because it's more or less what we expect from these two stars. Neither one seems out of their element and they more or less play slight inflections of roles they've already played on TV and in other films. The movie may not give either actor/actress a career boost, but it will further solidify their already reputable (and respected) positions in the entertainment industry.

David Mumpower: I think Reagen is closer to the truth here. What the lukewarm success of this project does is enable Fey to keep herself in the game. As was noted earlier, the box office expectations of this title were being downplayed because there was a real sense of doom about its reception due to the lackluster quality. What studio analysts are noting today is that people give these two actors the benefit of the doubt. That's a huge boon in our industry, because frequent fence sitters are where the real money is. Reagen's point that Fey should be doing something of her own that would have more teeth to it is well taken. Fey is a strange mix and a rare breed in that she's the television model of Sandra Bullock in terms of popularity. She's also the deluxe version of Diablo Cody in terms of writing talent. And she has the comedic instincts that would allow her to be the next Nancy Meyers as a director if she chooses to go that route. The better than it had any right to be opening weekend of Date Night keeps all of those doors open to her as 30 Rock winds down its run.

Max Braden: Carell's has more movies under his belt, and this is more of the same from him, so he maintains. Fey has the name awareness but if people aren't watching 30 Rock then she may have gotten some new eyes on her this past week. Whether she's expanding or just securing her audience, it's a plus for her.

Jason Lee: I 100% agree with Josh. If you were fans of Carell or Fey going into this, you're going to stay fans going out. I think the performance of this film and the winning premise (I actually do think that this was a pretty good idea for a film) is going to solidify the perception of Carell and Fey as funny people who can find success so long as the project doesn't absolutely blow. I think both will benefit from the "keeps all those doors open" effect that David mentioned.