Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
December 21, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Avatar, James Cameron's first non-documentary release since Titanic in 1997 (and 1998), opened to $77.0 million, narrowly missing a December record. Should Fox be pleased with this result?
Reagen Sulewski: This is right on the lower end of what you'd call an acceptable hit for a film of this size with no series to fall back on for marketing purposes, and with no top line talent to drive it, like say, Will Smith, to pick a not so random example. Audiences definitely were at least curious about the concept that he brought forth, and getting them through the door is the toughest part of the battle. To quote Herm Edwards, "We can build on this!" - but without the two-win season equivalent to go along with it.
Tom Macy: I imagine the inside of the offices at Fox this morning sound a lot like "It's a non-franchise, actually a good movie and there was a snowstorm." It's surely below their expectations. But there's plenty of directions to spin here. So while the champagne is most definitely still on ice with perhaps some modest hand wringing, I doubt anyone is panicking yet.
Michael Lynderey: Just like Princess and the Frog's opening last week, this isn't a clear victory nor obvious defeat. It's a very strong number, a solid opening, but the whole story on Avatar's domestic performance just can't be written yet. If it's a leggy holiday beast and finishes north of $250 million, I'd say that's very good. And since I always thought a huge established franchise-type opening was unrealistic here, I'd say that $77 million is a win - at least for now.
Shalimar Sahota: Do tramps drink in the park? It's an excellent result. What more do they want? Yes, Fox, you have my money, and if you're not pleased, then come to my house and I'll please you in ways you wouldn't even imagine. Crucially, I believe they've also got all those 3D screens to themselves until the next big immersive experience in March, Alice in Wonderland.
Matthew Huntley: Fox should definitely be pleased with this result. Although the film is still a ways away from profitability, an opening of this magnitude, along with the strong audience and critical reception, suggests it's a lot more likely to get there. The studio should be excited about all the buzz and word-of-mouth that's continuing to build up. It's possible they have a mega-hit on their hands.
Sean Collier: Word-of-mouth and legs were always the keys to Avatar, but this certainly isn't bad. It was never going to get Twilight money (God I hate myself for using that phrase) and James Cameron has demonstrated that his films do not necessarily have to follow normal box office patterns. With reviews and buzz as strong as we've seen thus far, Avatar can't help but make money from here on out; if it gets a few Oscar nods, it could keep going strong until spring, and with 3D-inflated prices to boot. Avatar starting with $77 million is like opening your season 6-0 - you're in a good place, and signs are that things are going to go pretty well from here. (For the record, that's two football metaphors in two posts, I certainly would expect the rest of you to continue.)
Max Braden: This is also a record opening for a project not based on previously released movies, novels, comic books, or other established franchise (I'm including the Bible, for The Passion of the Christ), and the only selling name was the director, who for the youngest portion of the movie's target demographic isn't even a household name. And $77 million is far more than double Cameron's previous best opening weekend. Fox may have wanted $90 million, but they have to be satisfied with this opening.
Pete Kilmer: I think it's just "okay" for an opening. I really think, like everyone else said, that the word-of-mouth on this is gonna really push this film. It was telling to me that the embargo on reviews was on it was being lifted rather quickly when the reviews were coming out really positive on it.
Kim Hollis: I felt like Avatar was such a question mark of a commodity. A couple of weeks ago, we were talking around the BOP offices about whether anyone was even excited for the film and a lot of people were kind of like, "oh, I might see it, but..." And some responses to what was being shown were downright hostile. I honestly wouldn't have been surprised if this had opened as low as $45 million, and I think $77 million makes for a really great start with potential for a lot more as people talk about how important it is to experience this movie in a theater (specifically in IMAX 3-D if you have the option).
David Mumpower: I think we're getting too jaded if we can't appreciate a $77 million opening for a new property. I am reminded of the cycle we we went through with each Lord of the Rings release. In the days leading up to each part of the trilogy, people would forecast that it would be the one that escaped general December behavior and become a record-shattering debut. That never happened for a reason. During this time of the year, consumer behavior is just plain odd. I take a $77 million debut as a relatively solid pat on the back from North America to James Cameron, a demonstration of faith that no matter how inscrutable his films look, he has earned the benefit of the doubt.
Reagen Sulewski: The only reason I'm not more effusive about this number (and it was $70 million when I answered it originally) is because a movie that costs this much needs an opening like that. For a $100 or $150 million movie, that's assured you of something already. For a potentially $300 million plus movie, you're just getting started.
David Mumpower: I agree to a large extent. Avatar is a bit different since it's all but guaranteed massive international receipts, though. I've pointed this out a few times before, but it still blows me away. The -international- box office of Titanic is enough to make it the most successful film of all time in terms of worldwide box office. It made $1.23 billion internationally. Nothing else has done over $1.13 billion worldwide (domestic *and* international). Terminator 2 earned $312 million internationally way back in 1991. There are only seven films released in 2009 that have managed such a lofty amount. He is waaaaaay ahead of the game in terms of international appeal. It's a tribute to how universal his film concepts are.
Will Smith is The Domination! Yeah!
Kim Hollis: Will the universally positive Cinemascores and reviews allow Avatar to beat the only December film with a bigger opening weekend in terms of final domestic and worldwide box office? I am Legend is the film with that December opening record, with final box office of $256.4 million domestically and $585.1 million worldwide.
Reagen Sulewski: So far, the biggest December movies have had trouble holding onto the same percentage of their audience as lower grossing films - which is only natural considering that so much of Christmas week box office is based on people waiting for films. Titanic-expectations would be dreaming for Avatar, but I think it's at least got a chance at a Lord of the Rings-type performance as the word spreads that Cameron has more or less delivered on his promises.
Sean Collier: The Oscar nominations have a lot to do with it. I Am Legend didn't have awards buzz to propel it through to March. It's also still possible that people will talk about Avatar until they get sick of hearing about it (see one Precious for an example of this,) but I don't really see that happening. Barring calamity, I think I Am Legend will fall.
Matthew Huntley: Absolutely, especially the latter number. International audiences tend to be very kind to larger-than-life and exotic films of this nature, so I think the worldwide tally will easily top $600 million. Domestically, Avatar is the "it" movie at the moment and it's what people are talking about, so $200 million is practically a no-brainer, but it may be too soon to tell whether the quarter billion mark is in reach. I think the film's second weekend will tell us a lot more.
Shalimar Sahota: Well, Titanic this is not. I don't see this cracking over a billion worldwide. Despite positive reviews, there are some people who I believe will stay away from this, simply because it is too out-there. My parents would struggle with Avatar. Still, I feel that somewhere near $600 million plus worldwide is on the cards here. I just hope it's enough to get Cameron to roll out Battle Angel Alita.
Michael Lynderey: Taking a completely wild guess, I see Avatar ultimately beating I Am Legend, if not going too far beyond it. The film is just too beloved in some circles to have anything but decent legs at the least, and there's really not much of a flood of competition out there catering to the same audience (with the possible, if mild, exception of Sherlock Holmes). I think Avatar's got another $50 million+ weekend in it, and that should be enough to beat the Smith picture.
Tom Macy: I am Legend was greeted with a generally positive response, but Avatar brought the goods. The only argument for Legend winning out would be the hypnotic box office force that is Will Smith, but Cameron's track record shows he's no pushover. Man, what if Will Smith and James Cameron made a movie together? Now that would get people to come out during a snowstorm.
Max Braden: Usually I think "I want to see that" trumps "I should see that," where a Will Smith action piece will sell itself in the trailer while there is more audience uncertain about Avatar until they actually see it and say the reviews were right. But since the reviews and word-of-mouth are so strong with Avatar, I expect it to come out on top. It's also a movie where the story can be understood by visuals alone, so that's not an issue.
Pete Kilmer: I think it has a strong shot at doing it domestically. Worldwide it's sitting at almost $242.5 million, so it's well on its way to beating I Am Legend.
Kim Hollis: I think it beats both domestic and worldwide totals rather handily. People are talking about this movie. It's suddenly become very interesting to a lot of people who didn't know much about it before.
David Mumpower: As of right now, I think it's almost a given that Avatar exceeds $260 million domestically. The question is how far beyond that range it winds up. We'll have a much better feel for this two weeks from today, but my inclination is to expect glowing word-of-mouth to carry this well beyond what I Am Legend managed domestically. Internationally, it will be a blowout. Cameron is THE biggest worldwide box office draw in the history of his profession. Avatar has a real shot at becoming his second billion dollar winner. To put that in perspective, there are only four films that have ever accomplished this feat. Six months from now, he may have done it twice.